[HIIT]

I like to compare ‘relative-strengths’ of each team, which takes into the account the strength of their opponents, thus providing a pretty good way of comparing the 2 squads with one another.

Steelers O: 23.9 ppg
Opp Def Ave: 21.0
Variance: +2.9
Steelers D: 15.3 ppg
Opp Off Ave: 21.5
Variance: +6.2
Total Variance: +9.1


Steelers have a ‘superior’ defense and an above average offense. Their total variance of +9.1 is one of the highest in the league. Whose is the highest you might wonder? Well, that actually would be the Packers:

Packers O: 25.2 ppg
Opp Def Ave: 21.7
Variance: +3.5
Packers D: 15.3 ppg
Opp Off Ave: 22.4
Variance: +7.1
Total Variance: +10.6

Green Bay has the highest ‘total variance’ in the league when looking at ‘relative-strengths’, and it’s no wonder that they’re a -2.5 point favorites going into the Big Game. That being said, both of these teams are very similar to one another. The key to note here, are the ‘relative-strengths’ of the 2 defenses. These are the best 2 defensive teams in the league, and they’ll be going against one another on SuperBowl Sunday.
Let’s quickly take a look at a few other statistics that help differentiate teams for us. From the standpoint of ‘efficiency’, Steelers average 14.1 YPPT (Yards Per PoinT) on offense and give up 17.6 YPPT on defense. Obviously both their offense and defense are very efficient. (League average is around 15.5 for both). Packers average 14.3 YPPT on offense, and hold their opponents to 19.9 YPPT on defense. The 19.9 YPPT on defense is the best in the league. Both of these defenses are truly elite, and the offenses are clearly above average when it comes to execution and putting points on the board.

Let’s take a look at some basic statistics. Pittsburgh averages 225 PYpg @ 8.1 PYpa (Passing Yards per attempt) which ranks #2 in the league. Green Bay averages 258 PYpg @ 8.1 PYpa, tied for #2 in the league. Running the ball, Pittsburgh averages 120 RYpg @ 4.1 RYpa, #18 in the NFL. Packers average 100 RYpg @ 3.8 RYpa, good for #25 in the NFL. Here we see that both teams are more efficient at passing the ball. Pittsburgh runs the ball a little better than the Packers, and they clearly have a better player at the RB position. Mendenhall is a proven running back, who is coming off a terrific performance against the Jets defense. Starks, Packers’ primary rusher in the playoffs, has been very mediocre in the past 2 games, after his ‘break-out’ performance against the Eagles. In 47 carries in the 2 games since, he’s averaging 2.98 yards-per-carry for a total of 140 yards rushing. Clearly, Steelers have the advantage on the ground here.

Defensively, Pittsburgh gives up 214 PYpg @ 6.3 PYpa, which is #1 in the league. Packers give up 194 PYpg @ 6.5 PYpa, ranking #7. Both of these teams have elite pass-defenses. Green Bay does it with 3 Pro-Bowlers in their secondary who are all terrific playmakers, while Pittsburgh applies tremendous pressure on the quarterback with their front 7, disguising some of their weakness from their back-4. Obviously Polamalu is a difference maker, but the rest of the Steelers defensive backs are pretty average. When it comes to stopping the run though, there is no one that can even compare to the Steelers. They give up 62.8 RYpg @ 3.0 RYpa, which is #1 in the league. Packers give up 115 RYpg @ 4.7 RYpa, which is #28 in the NFL. At first look, you can say that Pittsburgh has tremendous advantage in rushing defense but I would argue that it’s not true. In the playoffs (3 games), this Packers run-D has held its opponents to an average of 20 carries per game, 70 yards, and 3.5 rushing-yards average. And these are not just any teams, but 3 teams (PHI, ATL, CHI) that like to run the ball.

Looking at all the relevant stats, it’s really difficult to distinguish between the Steelers and the Packers. From my perspective, Pittsburgh has the advantage in the running game, while Packers have a slightly better passing attack. Steelers have the better run D, while the Packers secondary is stouter. Both of these Special-Teams are nothing special, and I don’t expect them to be ‘difference-makers’ in the SuperBowl. To me both teams are very even. From the ‘statistical’ perspective I can’t really pin-point one area, where one team has a CLEAR advantage over the other. Both offenses are very good and both defenses are elite. All the stats we’ve looked at, pretty much confirm that. Let’s break-down potential game-plans for both teams to see if we can find an ‘angle’ to exploit.

I truly feel that the only way to beat Pittsburgh Steelers is through the pass. You will not be able to run the ball on them, and for a team like the Packers that have struggled running the ball all year long (One good James Starks performance @ Philly doesn’t count) it’s going to be nearly impossible. Fortunately for the Packers, they have the right QB and the right WR’s to execute a pass-heavy game-plan in this one. Two of Pittsburgh’s 4 losses, came against teams that executed a pass-heavy game-plan against them: New England and New Orleans. Those were the only 2 instances when teams threw for more than 260 yards on them. I believe that the Packers will try to copy this strategy, and will come out throwing the ball. Will they be successful? Sure…but to a degree. New England and New Orleans have two of the top 5 Offensive Lines in the game. Packers’ O-line is in the bottom 10. Therefore, Green Bay will need to keep back extra blockers in order to protect Rodgers. More blockers, means there are fewer receivers running routes. Fewer receivers, means it is easier for the secondary/linebackers to cover them. In addition, we all know about Steelers’ ability to rush the quarterback. They’ve led the league in sacks with 48 on the season and have 7 in 2 games in the playoffs. The Packers gave up 38 sacks this season, 11th most in the NFL. When you have a rookie tackle playing on your O-line, mistakes will be made and it will put added pressure on the rest of the blockers. I expect Pittsburgh to utilize an array of blitzes, offer a number of various looks, and put pressure on Rodgers throughout the day. If Green Bay can’t get any running game going at all, then it will be even tougher for them to move the ball as the game goes on. Keep in mind that Pittsburgh is primarily a 3-4 defense. Against 3-4 defenses this year, Packers struggled to put points on the board: Miami and Washington were both close OT losses and against the Jets they scored only 9 points. They were successful against the Cowboys, putting up 45 points on them, but who hasn’t this season? Also, keep in mind that 2 weeks off gives Troy Polamalu extra time to heal-up. As average as Steelers corner-backs are individually, Polamalu truly makes the unit stronger as a whole. Overall, I feel that the Steelers D will be able to contain this Green Bay attack.

When Steelers have the ball, I expect their game-plan to be a bit different. They are going to try and establish their running game here. Pittsburgh does not want to get caught up in a shoot-out with the Packers. Long, sustained drives that eat up a lot of clock is their best strategy to win this one. And the way to get it done is by having success in the run game. I’ve briefly discussed Mendenhall earlier, but want to emphasize the fact that he had 121 yards while averaging 4.5 yard-per-carry against one of the BEST run-defenses in the league in the Jets. I was impressed. And if I was impressed, than you can bet that the Packers have noticed as well ? Well, I expect Green Bay to emphasize stopping the running game in this one. This unit has been doing a tremendous job of doing just that in the playoffs, and I don’t see any reason why they shouldn’t have success against the Packers. Keep in mind that BJ Raji has been a ‘monster’ lately, and Pouncey’s ankle injury, will most certainly make it even easier to penetrate through the middle of this Steelers’ O-line. (I’m assuming that he’ll play of course). Even if the Steelers have some success early, I’m sure Green Bay will be able to bring another man into the box, and let their superior secondary go 1-on-1 with Pittsburgh’s receivers. Tramon Williams has the speed to keep up with Mike Wallace while Woodson shouldn’t have too many problems with Hines Ward. I was very surprised with how poorly Wallace played in the Jets game: 1 catch for 6 yards. Maybe he’s just not ready to face ‘elite’ corners on a consistent basis. In any case, I feel this Packers D matches up very well with Pittsburgh’s offense. I’ve mentioned earlier that Steelers led the league in sacks with 48, well Packers were a close 2nd, with 47 sacks on the season. They have 10 sacks in 3 games in the playoffs. At the same time, Pittsburgh was #8 in the NFL in sacks allowed, with 43. Pittsburgh’s O-line is just as mediocre as Green Bay’s, and with Pouncey’s injury will be even weaker. I expect Packers pass-rush to be able to get to Big Ben, and if he’s holding on to the ball too long, like he typically does, then it will add a sack or 2 to the final total. Why am I focusing so much on ‘sacks’? Well, sacks are typically ‘drive-killers’. Will the Packers completely stop this Steelers offense? No, of course not. But I feel like they will most definitely be able to contain it. Pittsburgh likes to make ‘big-plays’ on offense, but Green Bay is build to prevent those. Their 19.9 YPPT efficiency metric confirms that. Once Pittsburgh is forced to go on long drives in this one, a devastating ‘sack’ at any point is very likely to end those most of the time.

I think it’s pretty clear that I feel that both of these teams matchup very well against one another. Neither has elite O-lines, while both have elite defenses. Both QB’s are able to make plays, but are also prone to holding on to the ball a bit too long at times, letting the pressure get to them. Typically in the NFL, when 2 teams matchup well with one another, it leads to low-scoring, tight games. I do expect this game to be one of those. Most people see these 2 teams as high-scoring, offensive juggernauts. Well I would disagree. I see these squads as having elite defensive units, with above-average offenses. Keep in mind that the Packers have allowed 15 ppg on defense, #2 in the league, while the Steelers gave up 14.5 ppg, leading the NFL. That’s a combined 29.5 ppg given up by both of these teams. Offensively, Green Bay averaged 24.3 ppg (#10) and Pittsburgh 23.4 ppg (#12). (Talk about being similar!). That’s a total of 47.7 ppg combined. The O/U in this one is listed at 45. Hmmmm…. Even if we think about this in ‘simple’ terms, we have 2 teams that put up 47.7 points while holding their opponents to 29.5 combined. If the O/U is at 45, then the offenses are +2.7 points better than this #, while the defenses are at +15.5. Yes, I know that things are just not ‘that simple’, but I’m just trying to show that the posted total just intuitively seems to be too high.

Let’s take a look at a number of other factors that favor the UNDER in this one:

#1: Steelers’ experience.
This is Pittsburgh’s 3rd SB appearance in the last 6 years, so a number of their players have experienced what it’s like to play in the ‘big game’. This experience will lead Pittsburgh to be very patient during the game, execute their offense, and not panic if they happen to fall behind. I do expect them to come out with a game-plan of establishing the run. Even if they’re unsuccessful at first, I don’t see this veteran team abandoning it and expect them to continue trying to execute it throughout the game. This will lead to time coming off the clock.

#2: Two-week layoff
Typically, time-off favors the defenses. Offenses like the Packers that rely so much on timing, are hurt the most. In any case these are professional athletes, and it’s not like they have a month-and-a-half between games (remember the Oregon/Auburn game?). This impact will be small, but something to think about.

#3: Turnover margins
Both of these teams are excellent at protecting the ball. Pittsburgh has a TO ratio of +16 while Packers are at +13. With as many sacks as these teams give up, I do expect the QB’s to protect the ball in this one, leading to punts versus turnovers. Rodgers only had 11 INT’s and 2 FL’s in 15 games while Roethlisberger had 5 INT’s and 4 FL’s in 12 games. Usually games with high turn-overs end up with higher scores and I don’t expect many in this one.

#4: Trends
O/U is 9-9 in all Steelers games this season and 7-12 in all Packers games (16-21 combined)
O/U is 1-3 in both teams’ 4 non-conference games this season (2-6 O/U combined)
O/U is 4-4 in Steelers’ ‘away’ games and 2-9 in Packers’ games away from Lambeau (6-13 combined)
O/U is 1-2 PIT and 6-10 GB when the O/U is set in a 43-49 range (7-12 combined)
The most irrelevant trend:
O/U is 0-4 when Steelers are ‘underdogs’ and 5-9 when Packers are ‘favorites’ (5-13 combined)
The most relevant trend:
O/U is 1-5 in the last 6 Super Bowls.
The most “not talked about trend” trend for the Over backers:
O/U is 2-5 in Packers’ last 7 games on field-turf.
Why will this be the most “not talked about” trend? Well, because I expect a lot of people that like the OVER to say that playing on field-turf will enable the Packers to score an insane number of points, like they did @ Atlanta. Atlanta is a different team from the Steelers. I don’t expect the same outcome here.

#5: Recent performances by both teams
In the last 7 games, Pittsburgh has allowed 13.4 points per game.
In the last 7 games, Packers have allowed 15.6 points per game
In the last game against Chicago (top 5 D) Green Bay offense scored 14 points (1 TD was on Def)
In the last game against the Jets (top 5 D) Pittsburgh offense scored 17 points (1 TD was on Def)
Even against Baltimore, the 31 points Steelers put up were an aberration. 2 Baltimore turnovers deep in their own territory in the 3rd quarter, let to 2 very short TD scoring drives for Pittsburgh.
Finally, I’ve looked up the total scores when GB and PIT faced off against a top 10 scoring NFL D this year. The results are interesting (listing total points first and then the team played):

Packers:
37 vs CHI
9 vs NYJ
37 vs ATL
58 vs NE
13 vs CHI
69 vs ATL
35 vs CHI
Steelers:
24 vs ATL
31 vs BAL
30 vs NO
65 vs NE
23 vs BAL
39 vs NYJ
55 vs BAL
43 vs NYJ

Both teams had very high scoring games when each faced off against New England. Also the playoff game @ Atlanta was just one of those games where everything went right for the Packers. Pittsburgh’s playoff game vs Baltimore was also high-scoring due to an unusual number of turn-overs by both team on their own sides of the field. Besides these few games, every other game involving Packers/Steelers and a top 10 defensive teams (scoring wise) was a low-scoring affair. The Packers only generated 14 points on offense in their last game against the Bears, while Pittsburgh’s offense put up 17 points on the Jets. Now these offenses will be going against even better defenses than in those games.

#6: Line-movement

The O/U opened at 45.5 / 46 at most books. Interestingly enough it started dropping very rapidly. It’s currently at 44.5 at most ‘sharp’ books (Pinnacle/5Dimes) and around 45 at the ‘square’ ones (BoDog/BetUS). As most of you know, the ‘sharps’ are the ones that bet early when it comes to the SuperBowl and pretty much ALL the games. There is no doubt in my mind that the reason for such a drastic drop was due to very ‘sharp’ money coming in on the UNDER, especially since 70% of all the tickets so far are on the OVER. This ‘reverse-line-movement’ is a good indicator of what the ‘sharps’ are expecting in this game.

If you like the UNDER, you can probably wait at this point. The overwhelming ‘public’ money will push this total up in the next few weeks. I really don’t see this # ever reaching 44 (key #), so at this point no need to take UNDER 44.5 / 45. I would wait until the public pushes it back up to 46. Do I see it hitting 47? Not likely. 47 is another ‘key’ number when it comes to totals, and the bookies know that the ‘sharps’ will hit them again if it gets to that point. I actually expect the # to end up at 46 at game-time, maybe at 46.5. If you like the OVER though, I think this is the right time to place your wager. This is as low as this total will be in my opinion. Obviously, if it hits 44, then the OVER bettors will have even more ‘value’.

From the standpoint of picking a side, I think the line of Packers -2.5 is very sharp. Obviously Packers are heavily favored by the public right now, but I also think they are a tad-better team overall. Even so, Pittsburgh is a great squad as well. I just don’t see an ‘angle’ in backing either team in this one. In my opinion, they are very evenly matched and either one can win and cover. Keep in mind that that this is the ‘shortest’ line in a Superbowl since 1982. This means that the bookies are agreeing that either team can win/cover this one. If you must pick a side, then I would probably look to back Pittsburgh on the money line. No ‘value’ in taking them +2.5 and at +3 you’re paying -130 juice which is insane! (Never lay this much juice on a ‘spread’ play – long-term losing proposition) Pittsburgh has the ‘experience’ of being there before, AFC has won 7 of the last 10 SuperBowls, and the underdog has covered 7 of the last 9 (won 2 of the last 3 outright).

In summary, I expect defenses to ‘rule’ this SuperBowl. Both Pittsburgh and Green Bay defenses are playing at an extremely high level right now and I don’t see that changing in 2 weeks. My computer model has this one at 20-19 Steelers, thus providing about a TD of ‘value’ when backing the UNDER. The public will be all over the OVER in this one (no pun intended), but the smart play is on the UNDER.

[borednaz]

very nice write up, well written. Thanks for the time.

[teddyd]

that's some serious analysis! good job

[dwang0725]

Nice read. thanks. If you had to pick a side, which would it be?

[dannyd66]

Very good reading & analysis. Kudos!

[UnderAndOver]

Is this yours or from covers.com ?

covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=100961642

[KACK]

like the information....

[gman2114]

Good points.

[legendmatt34]

I agree.. Gb and under

[asiangambler]

good luck

[Pasadena69ers]

[tad0matic]

Is this yours or from covers.com ?

covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=100961642

I don't care if it was pated in, its still alot of good info.

[chargers4222]

this dude stole a post from covers....

[Dialysis1]

this dude stole a post from covers....

Still interesting as hell, and I would have not seen it otherwise.

Thanks!

[ATP123]

last season these teams played a ridiculously high scoring game

[uhuhahah]

wow....I can't write that long and I can't even read that much.
Like GB and Over.