1. 01-23-11 01:51 PM #1
    The Seer
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    Here's why running the football in the NFL is a joke argument

    I'm referring to the argument that teams not being able to run means that they can't win.
    I've posted this several times before but it seems people have trouble fathoming it. With all of the talking heads on TV talking about it so much, people feel the need to repeat it & the main necessary ingredient for victory or to sound "smart". The fact is, IT IS NOT. NFL is very different than other levels of football in that many NFL QBs can beat you without a running game. All they need is some rushing attempts to set up play action.
    Let's look at these FACTS:
    -For the 2010 season GB averaged 3.8 yds per carry & Chi 3.9 yet people think Chi is a "running" team.

    -The '03 Pats averaged 3.4 yds per carry but that didn't stop them from winning the SB.

    -Cincy averaged 7.8 yds per carry in the playoffs last yr.

    -The average Super Bowl winner in the 21st century has had just the 18th best ground game.

    -GB averaged 3.8 during the regular season which was the same as the Ravens and Falcons who people perceived to be "good" running teams.

    -Philly averaged a league best 5.4 yds per carry and we see how that worked out.

    -Pitt won their last SB being 4th worst in the league by averaging 3.7 yds per carry in the regular season in '08 and 2.9 in the playoffs that year. Yet people would argue that they are a "tough" running team. lol

    -Indy got to the SB averaging just 3.5 last year.

    -This year, the SF defense gave up a league 2nd best 3.5 yds per carry and they didn't even have a winning record in the leagues worst division. Car was 7th best. lol

    -6 of the top 10 yds per rush defenses failed to make the playoffs this year.

    -The last meeting, Chi averaged 5.5 yds per carry and GB averaged 2.6 yet GB won by 7.


    I could go on and on with other examples but I think it's clear. It will come down to QB play and turnovers.
    Last edited by The Seer; 01-23-11 at 02:34 PM.
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  2. 01-23-11 01:59 PM #2
    pavyracer
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    Best game plan is to take what the defense gives you. Run when they play man coverage and pass when they stack the front.
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  3. 01-23-11 02:07 PM #3
    ngates815
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    So they should just pass the ball every play?

    Even though a team only rushes for 3.5 yards per carry, they still rush the ball 20-25 times a game to keep the defense honest....So actually running the ball is pretty important.


    If you caught any of the show on FOX this morning. Pittsburgh said that one of the reasons that the Jets beat them the first time they met was because they were able to run the ball on them.
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  4. 01-23-11 02:09 PM #4
    The Seer
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    Quote Originally Posted by ngates815 View Post
    So they should just pass the ball every play? Even though a team only rushes for 3.5 yards per carry, they still rush the ball 20-25 times a game to keep the defense honest....So actually running the ball is pretty important. If you caught any of the show on FOX this morning. Pittsburgh said that one of the reasons that the Jets beat them the first time they met was because they were able to run the ball on them.
    you don't read well. Reread the last sentence in the first paragraph. It's rushing attempts that hold the linebackers not yards.
    Last edited by The Seer; 01-23-11 at 02:14 PM.
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  5. 01-23-11 02:13 PM #5
    The Seer
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    Quote Originally Posted by ngates815 View Post
    So they should just pass the ball every play? Even though a team only rushes for 3.5 yards per carry, they still rush the ball 20-25 times a game to keep the defense honest....So actually running the ball is pretty important. If you caught any of the show on FOX this morning. Pittsburgh said that one of the reasons that the Jets beat them the first time they met was because they were able to run the ball on them.
    By the way, you do realize that Pitt outrushed the Jets by 40 yds in that game don't you? You'll get owned in this argument.
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  6. 01-23-11 02:20 PM #6
    The Seer
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    GB first drive for 7 points: 2 rushes 7 yards...passing 4 of 4 76 yds..
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  7. 01-23-11 02:25 PM #7
    ngates815
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Seer View Post
    By the way, you do realize that Pitt outrushed the Jets by 40 yds in that game don't you? You'll get owned in this argument.
    I didn't look at the stats. Just was saying what the Tomlin said.
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  8. 01-23-11 02:25 PM #8
    jakeandba
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    interesting comments about the first drive for GB and their run game. Chicago is forced to respect the GB run formation since GB has been able to run effectively in the previous last 2 play off games.
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  9. 01-23-11 02:26 PM #9
    ngates815
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Seer View Post
    you don't read well. Reread the last sentence in the first paragraph. It's rushing attempts that hold the linebackers not yards.

    You're correct, I missed that last sentence because I couldn't wait to see all your YPC stats.

    But that is exactly what I said.
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  10. 01-23-11 02:29 PM #10
    ngates815
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    But it's just funny the title of the thread being: Here's why running the football in the NFL is a joke argument

    'Then you say that rushing attempts are vital to keep the linebackers honest. I found it funny that you back up your title of the thread with YPC instead of rushing attempts, which we know is the important thing.
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  11. 01-23-11 02:30 PM #11
    NrmlCurvSurfr
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    As long as running the ball is legal, every team will run the ball. There are also many instances where running can be more efficient than passing (goal line, 4th and 1). Im not sure if ONLY passing would be the best game plan.
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  12. 01-23-11 02:31 PM #12
    bettilimbroke999
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    Running in college football is even more pointless, against their nonexistent pass defenses a guy like Peyton would complete 9 out of 10 if he had NFL quality receivers instead of the garbage he had at Tennessee

    Only thing running the ball does is run the clock so you can brag about your defense bc you cut the time in half so naturally theres not gonna be much scoring.
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  13. 01-23-11 02:32 PM #13
    The Seer
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    Quote Originally Posted by NrmlCurvSurfr View Post
    As long as running the ball is legal, every team will run the ball. There are also many instances where running can be more efficient than passing (goal line, 4th and 1). Im not sure if ONLY passing would be the best game plan.
    The argument is about people saying that teams can't win because they can't run the ball. Of course you have to have rushing attempts which I said in the original post and, yes, sometimes there are instances where a team has to run the ball or attempt to run it..
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  14. 01-23-11 02:34 PM #14
    BettingWizard
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    yeah im sure atlanta enjoyed having 39 rushing yards against GB. Philly run game also got shutdown against GB



    when a team has more rushing yards and wins the turnover battle, they cover like 90% of the time
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  15. 01-23-11 02:50 PM #15
    yisman
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    the main reason why is teams run when ahead and pass when behind, so losing teams tend to have a lot more passing yards, and vice versa with winning teams

    "run to win" is one of the oldest fallacies in the NFL.
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  16. 01-23-11 02:52 PM #16
    jakeandba
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    It can be argued the yards per carry avg is skewed. Teams such as Tenn and Balt run the ball in a traditional sense. They hand the ball off to the RB. Other teams such as Indy and New Orleans seem to have an alternative means of establishing a run game by use of screens and or slants. To their offensive co ordinators, this is method to overcome possible weaknesses in the offense line. This is just one example, there are many reasons for creating a running game via alternate means. These type of gains are not reflected in the yards per carry avg.

    Any team can win with or without a running game for a very short time in the NFL but dont expect them to compete effectively when defensive co ordinators review tape.
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  17. 01-23-11 02:53 PM #17
    The Seer
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    Quote Originally Posted by BettingWizard View Post
    yeah im sure atlanta enjoyed having 39 rushing yards against GB. Philly run game also got shutdown against GB when a team has more rushing yards and wins the turnover battle, they cover like 90% of the time
    turnovers is more important. It gives teams more or less possessions, not rushing yards.
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  18. 01-23-11 02:55 PM #18
    bigsmitty
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    The whole point is not whether your run is highly successful or not but that other teams must account for it. Back to see if Cutler can keep his composure...Cheers
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  19. 01-23-11 02:55 PM #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by jakeandba View Post

    Any team can win with or without a running game for a very short time in the NFL but dont expect them to compete effectively when defensive co ordinators review tape.
    Your argument there is flawed due to all of the SB champions I listed above. However, after 30 yrs in football I agree that screens are widely used as "running' plays.
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  20. 01-23-11 02:55 PM #20
    The Seer
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigsmitty View Post
    The whole point is not whether your run is highly successful or not but that other teams must account for it. Back to see if Cutler can keep his composure...Cheers
    That is the key, not whether it is successful or not.
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  21. 01-23-11 02:58 PM #21
    InTheDrink
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    This is a good thread.

    Running = moving the clock with the lead

    If a team can get a lead and convert 3rd and 5 more often than not then the yardage running the ball isn't important. Just have to be able to sustain drives and burn clock/keep the D rested.

    This coming from a guy who was an Oiler fan in the late 80's/early 90's who invariably would get a big lead only to piss it away because they couldn't move the clock in the 2nd half.
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  22. 01-23-11 03:01 PM #22
    8ArIvd5
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    But it doesn't hurt to be able to run if you can pass like Indy and play D like the Jets.
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  23. 01-23-11 03:02 PM #23
    ttwarrior1
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    why do teams run up the middle on 3rd and 15? or on 2nd and ten with a stacked box
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  24. 01-23-11 03:02 PM #24
    GoCougs!
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    I enjoy the argument/discussion. There are way too many variables to say a team has to have a solid run game to win/lose. The offense is only 1/3 of the game, and the run game is only 40 - 50% of that 1/3.
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  25. 01-23-11 03:03 PM #25
    InTheDrink
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoCougs! View Post
    The offense is only 1/3 of the game


    are you saying special teams is 1/3 of the game?
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  26. 01-23-11 03:04 PM #26
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    Yep.
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  27. 01-23-11 03:07 PM #27
    InTheDrink
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    no offense but that's ridiculous

    feel free to say it's important but no chance it's as important as offense and defense
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  28. 01-23-11 03:14 PM #28
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    No offense taken. I think you took 1/3 more literally than I intended. I did not mean to say special teams is as important as offense and defense. The intended reference is there is offense, defense and special teams.
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  29. 01-23-11 03:46 PM #29
    jakeandba
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    it appears as if the parameters for this thread is for 2001 season to the present. Could probably present a counter argument about running the ball is vital for teams in the play offs for seasons prior to this century.

    Just speculating but with the rules in place (in previous eras) were not favorable to the passing game, forcing teams to run. Also consider the forward pass has not been creatively used in previous eras.
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  30. 01-23-11 03:49 PM #30
    Prop Bet Master
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    Good write up. I have always believed that running the ball is overrated. My father used to say that special teams is the most important phase of the game. I thought that was bullshit! Quarterback play, defense, and (to a lesser degree) special teams will decide the games. By the way, no hard feelings about my comments about your thread after the National Championship Game!
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  31. 01-23-11 04:00 PM #31
    The Seer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Prop Bet Master View Post
    Good write up. I have always believed that running the ball is overrated. My father used to say that special teams is the most important phase of the game. I thought that was bullshit! Quarterback play, defense, and (to a lesser degree) special teams will decide the games. By the way, no hard feelings about my comments about your thread after the National Championship Game!
    The punt is the most important single play in a football game. Every coach I have known would say the same thing but special teams altogether isn't because there are less plays involved. BTW, no hard feelings at all. You got to have thick skin around this place anyway.lol
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  32. 01-23-11 04:11 PM #32
    frostno98
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    At least it makes the game go under
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  33. 01-23-11 04:51 PM #33
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    I been saying it all year. Amen brother
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  34. 02-06-11 11:35 PM #34
    The Seer
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    Pittsburg 126 rushing yds, 5.5 per carry
    GB 50 yds, 3.8 per carry
    so much for the Steeler vaunted running attack
    GB wins with the better passing game
    Last edited by The Seer; 02-06-11 at 11:38 PM.
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