On paper, Green Bay covers this spread easy. Green Bay has the upper hand in most categories, and they are the better team here. But this game is in Chicago and being 1 game away from a dream can be an incredible motivator. I think because of that, Chicago plays above it's ability and keeps this one close.

The problem here is that the sharps and the public are on the same side.

To me, it isn't worth taking Green Bay at -3.5 without buying the hook down to -3. The odds to do that at my book are currently -135. At that price, I'd rather play the money line at -190 and protect my investment against some gut wretching 21-20 ending.

In my opinion, the play here is the Green Bay money line. I think this one comes down to a field goal.

Green Bay 23 Chicago 20

Good luck