[riggs]

Game #1
Green Bay Packers (12-6) at Chicago Bears (12-5)
Line: Packers -3. Total: 45.

At the beginning of the week some people were questioning why the small line, is this a trap??? But the line is dead on, when you cap a game, the home team automatically gets a 3 point edge. Green Bay is 6 to 6.5 points better than the Bears, so -3 or -3.5 is dead on, don’t read too much into the line. Green Bay had the perfect game plan for Atlanta and the Falcon defense this past Saturday. They showed a ton of different looks again on defense, they attacked the ball, and they put a ton of hits on Matt Ryan, as Ryan spent most of that game on the ground. Offensively they mixed in enough of James Starks, to keep the Falcons guessing. And what more can you say about Aaron Rodgers, he was perfect yet again, and had a game for the ages, as he went 31/36 for 366 yards and 4 touchdowns. Rodgers has put together two great back to back performances this post season and I think it’s safe to say that he’s silenced most of his doubters, as he’s gone a combined 49/63 for 546 yards with 7 td’s and no interceptions.

Offensively the Packers are firing on all cylinders now, as they’re finally getting some production from their running game as they had 138 on the ground at Philly and then nearly 100 yards against Atlanta, even though they were just running out the clock in mop up time. As we already know, the Packers are the most efficient team in the league passing the ball, as they were putting up 258 yards a game through the air, with an 8 yard per catch average. Incredibly enough those numbers have actually gone up this post season, as they’re now putting up an average of 273 yards a game through the air, with an 11 yard per catch average, and that’s with a better running game now.

This is not good news for the Bears because they’re ranked 20th in league against the pass, as they’re letting up an average of 225 yards per game in the air. The Bears are solid up front against the run, but the Packers will test them here to keep Chicago off balance. In their last meeting Green Bay made no commitment whatsoever at running the ball, as James Starks had 5 carries for 20 yards. That won’t happen this Sunday! I’ve said it before, if this team can find just decent production from the RB position, they’ll be nearly unstoppable. Green Bay has also been great in the red zone all year and they’ve continued to succeed there this post season. Over their last four games now they’re still at an incredible 80% efficiency rate.

On the defensive side of the ball Don Cappers continues to impress, as I think he’s should get coordinator of the year, if only that award existed. They’re still only allowing an incredible 15 points per game on that side of the ball. They’re especially good against the pass, as they continue to excel there, but they’ve cleaned up their run defense as well this post season as they’ve only given up a combined total of 125 yards in two games on the ground. That’s 62.5 yards a game, those are Pittsburgh numbers. Consider the teams they did it against too, the Falcons and Eagles, two of the best running teams in the NFL. Add to that the aggressive style of ball hawking defense they’re playing right now, it’s a dangerous combo! I don’t think Chicago matches up very well with the Packers Offensively as they weren’t able to do anything against the Packers in week 17, and that final score should have been 17-3.

It’s not a secret that I never bought into to the Bears as a legitimate contender. The Bears are mediocre on offense, and suspect in the secondary. As I said last week, defensively the Bears have played pretty well, but I still think they’re a bit overrated. They don’t have a pass rush and their secondary isn’t any good. As a unit, Chicago’s defense has given up a total of 186 points in their last seven games, that’s an average of nearly 27 points per game. The Bears are a better team statistically in run defense and special teams, as Hester is the best return specialist in the game. Special teams are extremely important in the post season, so it should be interesting to see how Green Bay deals with this threat. The Bears do have some nice players in Forte, Hester, Knox, and Olsen. But their offensive line might be the worst in the league and I don’t trust Jay Cutler, he takes way too many sacks and makes way too many mistakes. I’m by no means predicting a blow out here though, this is a divisional Rivalry, and it’ll be a tough game for the Packers.

For those of you that don’t know this already players do look at spreads and the Bears have to feel disrespected by this line as they already beat the Packers at home earlier this year. But that was against a much different and less discipline Green Bay team. Most of the public is on Green Bay with about 75% of money on the Packers. Usually under these circumstances I would play the live home dog here, 80% of the time I would. But not here! I’m not getting in the way of this Green Bay team! An advantage in special teams and run defense won’t be enough for Chicago! Green Bay is a wrecking machine on a mission right now. That being said, I'm still happy I got this line at -3.

Green Bay wins this game for several reasons…

1 - The Packers just got done beating two legitimate division Champs in the Eagles and the Falcons, two teams that are head and above, better than the Bears. The Bears came off a two week vacation and then played a practice scrimmage against the biggest fraud of a playoff team in Seattle. How tested are they?

2 - This is a quarterback league, and the Packers have a top five quarterback in Aaron Rodgers who’s playing out of his mind right now, as I mentioned before, he’s gone 49/63 for 546 yards with 7 td’s and no interceptions this post season, on the road. By contrast the Bears have one of the most inconsistent quarterbacks in the league with Jay Cutler, who’s proven that he can lose a game all by himself.

3 - The Bears have the worst offensive line in Football, I’m sorry but they’re pathetic!

4 - Chicago plays the right defense to defend this type of offense, but this is a different Packers team that features more of a running game now with Starks. They gave Starks limited action in their last game against the Bears, as he had only 5 carries for 20 yards on the ground. I expect that to change and his work load to increase!

5 - The Packers just hung up 48 on the road vs. Atlanta, and Chicago’s defense has given up an average of 27 points per game over their last seven.

6 - Green Bay has (IMO) the most talented and aggressive defense in the NFL, with 47 sacks and 24 interceptions on the year. And so far this post season they haven’t let up, as they have another 8 sacks and 5 turnovers. We get too caught up with the Packer offense, and I’m guilty of it myself. The Packers can win and cover the spread on defense alone, as the defense has carried this team all year!

7 - Offensively Chicago is mediocre at best. As they scored 3 points the last time these two teams met, they had only 227 yards of total offense, the offensive line looked horrible yet again, Cutler was sacked 6 times and was picked off twice.

8 - The Packers are zoned in right now and they’re on a mission. The last time they played in the Superbowl was 1996, I think 15 years is a long enough drought, and I think it’s their time.

Prediction: Green Bay 24, Chicago 16
Play: Green Bay Packers -3 (15 Units)

[riggs]

Game #2
New York Jets (13-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (13-4)
Line: Steelers -3.5 Total: 38

All I have to say is John Candy’s the man! Rex Ryan and his squad talk a ton of shit but when you continue to win on the road in the playoffs and get to the AFC Championship game two years in a row, I think it’s safe to say that they back it up. No one gave the Jets a shot to beat the Pats, as most people saw another blowout, but not me. As I said last Wednesday there was no way in hell the Jets get embarrassed again, they played a smaller defense and showed Brady a ton of different looks defensively as I said they would. They also put a ton of hits on Brady and compiled five sacks, that’s impressive against a guy who gets rid of the ball so fast. I think it’s safe to say that many of them were coverage sacks though, as the Jets did a much better job of jamming the receivers at the line of attack, and they did a much better job of accounting for the backs & tight ends.

Pittsburgh, on the other hand, put on one of the most impressive playoff come backs I’ve seen in a long time, probably since that Giant/49’er game a few years back. Like the Jets, Pittsburgh put a ton of heat on Joe Flacco compiling 5 sacks of their own. Pittsburgh was also the beneficiary of 3 turnovers, and as good teams usually do, they were able to take advantage of them, scoring 17 un-answered points. As a team Pittsburgh looked great at times, and then horrible at times. Offensively they couldn’t run the ball as they ran for only 71 yards on 31 carries, they had 9 penalties, Big Ben missed on a ton of throws, they turned the ball over twice, missed a chip shot field goal, and allowed a total of 6 six sacks. It’s really amazing they were able to win this game. It all came down to defense though, as the Steelers dominated again! Pittsburgh allowed a total of 35 rushing yards and 126 yards of total offense. They had an incredible day. In all fairness to Joe Flacco though, his receivers dropped a total of 8 perfectly thrown balls on Saturday, and it might have been one of the biggest differences in the game.

This game on Sunday has so many intriguing match-ups it should definitely be the better of the two to watch! This should be another great game between two similar teams. Much like the Baltimore/Pittsburgh game, it’ll be another hard fought defensive struggle where field position and big plays on special teams and defense will dictate the course of the game. As I said last week, Pittsburgh, in my opinion, is the most complete team in the league on paper. Offensively the Steelers are great in the passing game, as Roethlisberger has become one of the most clutch players in the history of the NFL. He likes to spread the ball around as he has a nice compliment of receivers in Wallace & Ward, and a great tight end in Heath Miller. Pittsburgh did a nice job last week in big spots throwing the ball, but their passing game was definitely off a bit, and that’s where I expected them to have the most success. As I mentioned before Big Ben missed on a ton of throws, and the offensive line was absolutely pathetic, as they almost got him killed back there on Saturday. I expected the Steelers to have success throwing the ball, because Baltimore has big holes in their secondary, and their corners are suspect at best.
It doesn’t get any easier for the Steelers and Big Ben this week though, as the Jets have the best tandem of corners in the league, and they’re a top 5 unit, compared to Baltimore at 21.

In the running game, I liked Mendenhall to have some success last Saturday, but the guy was a non factor struggling to gain 2.5 yards a carry. That was a bit of a surprise, as the Ravens gave up an average of 4 yards per carry on the ground this year. So I don’t know if we can expect much from Mendenhall on Sunday as the Jets are better than the Ravens against the run, as they only allow 3.6 yards a carry, 2nd in the league behind Pittsburgh. The Steelers don’t match up too well against the Jets on the offensive side of the ball. It should be interesting to see what kind of a game plan the Steelers come up with on offense, but chances are, they’ll have to rely on Big Ben to put up another great playoff performance. But as the home team, Pittsburgh does have an edge, and they have a slight edge defensively as well. On paper the Steelers match up well against the Jets defensively, as we all know how good they are against the run, and they only give up an average of 15 points a game. My guess is that Pittsburgh makes a strong commitment to stopping the run, and they’ll make Justin Beiber’s #1 fan, Mark Sanchez beat them.

Defensively, Pittsburgh is the best team in the league, primarily because of how good they are at stopping the run. But if you watched the game closely last week, you should have noticed how easy it was for Baltimore’s receivers to get wide open. The problem for Baltimore was, as I mentioned before, all of the dropped passes. The Steelers have holes all over that secondary as their corners are over matched against any team with a good receiving core, just as we saw in the Patriots game a few weeks back. Brady put on a clinic, without even trying, the guy was just toying with the Steelers secondary.

Pittsburgh does have an x-factor though, with Troy Polamalu, as I said last week he’s the best defensive player in all of football, but only when he’s healthy. Let’s be honest, he might have had his worst game as a professional last Saturday, he whiffed on a ton of tackles, got blown-up by Ray Rice, blew more than one coverage, and he only registered 2 tackles the whole game. He was a non-factor, something is not right with this guy, there’s no way in hell that he’s 100% out there. I think he’s playing hurt right now, and it definitely shows!

When you talk about the Jets you have to talk about defense and running the ball. As a unit they only let up an average total of 290 yards a game, and even though they let up 19 points a game they rank in the top 3 or 5 in every single defensive category. As far as the points are concerned, throughout the course of the year Mark Sanchez put the Jets defense in a ton of bad spots turning the ball over multiple times in their own territory. Luckily for the Jets that hasn’t happened the last two weeks, as he’s played excellent this post season, and had a near perfect game on Sunday! Offensively the Jets are a good team, great and explosive at times when Sanchez plays mistake free. They do a great job of running the ball as they averaged a 150 yards per game and 4.5 yards a carry. That success has continued into the post season as they’ve ran for over 300 yards already, as LT and Shawn Green are a deadly combination. I don’t know how much success they’ll have running the ball against Pittsburgh, but they’ll be much more effective than the Ravens were, I can guarantee you that!

The Jets put up an average of 23 points per game (as they put up 28 Sunday), and they really should have had 35 or 31 at a minimum. The Jets aren’t great in the red zone and Mark Sanchez is unpredictable, but something has changed this post season. They have an efficiency rate of 70% in the red zone this post season, compared to their season average of 41%. This is a very important stat, and it’s often what separates the good teams from the bad. Red zone efficiency is one of 20 different categories I look into before capping a game and coming up with a number and a side. When I looked into the numbers and trends for this game and began to break it down, I was surprised, because I actually found more advantages for the Jets than the Steelers. As I said, I use a 20 point system with 20 separate categories where an edge in one category is equal to one point. And here’s the tally I came up with, Jets 13, Steelers 7. One of those significant categories is momentum, which the Jets clearly have.

I love the Jets for 10 reasons this week…

1 - With all the early talk and this ongoing love fest for the Steelers, it sounds like a forgone conclusion. The Jets might as well not show up, it's a given that the Steelers hammer the Jets Sunday! Why even play the game? Steelers win by two td's... nothing to even think about here right? So yet again, the Jets will be the perceived underdog with no shot three weeks in a row, which is even more motivation to feed off of this week. Also, Denis Byrd will be an honorary Co-Cpt. for the Jets during the coin toss!

2 - The Jets just got done beating two solid playoff teams, with arguably the two best quarterbacks in the history of the NFL, and maybe the best coach as well. They held the Colts to 16 points and the Pats to 14 (if you exclude the garbage touchdown). If that’s not momentum, than I don’t know what is?

3 - The Jets will have a much easier time scheming for the Pittsburgh offense, which is much more conventional than what they saw the last two weeks.

4 - Pittsburgh was very lucky to win last week, as they played sloppy, and went through a physical, mental, and emotional up and down war against the Ravens. That should definitely take its toll.

5 - The Steelers offensive line is an absolute Joke, they’re obviously banged up and they can’t protect Roethlisberger, as they let up six sacks last week and a ton of hits on Big Ben causing all kinds of problems in the back field. It’s amazing Ben is still alive.

6 - The Jets are just as good as a blitzing team as Baltimore, if not better, the only difference is they have a much better secondary with two lockdown corners who generally don’t give up big plays.

7 - New York has already proven that they can beat the best the NFL has to offer on the road. They beat the Colts and Patriots this year, just as they beat the Bengals and Chargers last year, all on the road. They’ve already won in Pittsburgh, so that should help their confidence, and Sanchez is 4-1 (nearly 5-0) on the road in the post season.

8 - Let’s look at how the Steelers have faired against good teams this year. They beat Atlanta by 6, lost to Baltimore by 3, beat Miami by 1, lost to New Orleans by 10, lost by 13 to New England, they beat Baltimore by 3, and then lost to the Jets by 5. Those were their tough games this year. Add up those results and we’re at a margin of negative -22. Just something to think about!

9 - The other factor that comes into play here is special teams, Pittsburgh is horrendous on special teams, especially on coverage, and the Jets were 4th in the league on special teams this year. Antonio Cromartie is now a threat on every return, as is Brad Smith and it looks like Smith should be ready to go Sunday!

10 - With Jericho Cotchery now healthy the Jets can spread out the Steelers with Edwards, Holmes, Cotchery, and Keller to set up the run. If the Jets can continue to play mistake free football, get big plays on special teams, and solid play on defense, Pittsburgh will not win this game. I like the Jets to not only cover the spread Sunday, but I think they win outright and advance to the Superbowl!!!

Prediction: Pittsburgh 17, New York 20
Play: New York Jets +3.5 (10 Units)

[thebestthereis]

this is what my brained picked too, but i'll be vomiting if it happens

[Gilly86]

Great write ups. I would hate to see Cutler in the superbowl.

[riggs]

Great write ups. I would hate to see Cutler in the superbowl.

Don't worry, that's not going to happen...

[riggs]

this is what my brained picked too, but i'll be vomiting if it happens

Get Ready...

[npmassa]

Can't wait!

[Jhaug98]

Packers; correct. Jets; dead wrong! Nice theory tho!

[bachngocduong]

Packers maybe Jets fuk team play like shiit just fk luck

[jhack704]

gb and pitt

[manny24]

both qb's took over for brett favre!...he will be at the center of it all again...hope he doesn't post any new pics of his crank though.

[thebestthereis]

Get Ready...

they already played to a 9-0, 2 hit shutout by the brewers. that matchup would suck balls again. i hope the steelers win and the jet's cover.

[riggs]

they already played to a 9-0, 2 hit shutout by the brewers. that matchup would suck balls again. i hope the steelers win and the jet's cover.

Two different teams at this point in the year, I think it would be a great game!!!

[cowboyfan08]

Great write-ups riggs bol tomorrow damn wish they were playin today!

[riggs]

Great write-ups riggs bol tomorrow damn wish they were playin today!

It would have been nice to have one Saturday, one Sunday...

[Frostware]

Looks good.

[THoll702]

Been on NYJ and G.B. last two weeks, why stop now? Superbowl is all green!

[riggs]

Been on NYJ and G.B. last two weeks, why stop now? Superbowl is all green!

Lets get it...

[jalein]

with you on both games. BOL to us all

[DIRTYDIRTY]

im ridin riggs lets get it thanx doggg

[Villagers4din]

Bears v Steelers

[Villagers4din]

Jets don't have the offensive fire power to beat the Steelers defense... Packers won't be able to run the ball AT ALL, allowing Peppers and the Bears defense to smother AROD and force turnovers.

[coachkap]

Jets don't have the offensive fire power to beat the Steelers defense... Packers won't be able to run the ball AT ALL, allowing Peppers and the Bears defense to smother AROD and force turnovers.

With respect..... NOT!! NOW GIVE ME MY 4 betpoints!!!

[riggs]

Bears v Steelers

If that's what we get I'll be on vacation Superbowl Sunday, what a horrible game...

That would definitely be the worst opition out of the 4 possible games.

[ebbearsfb1]

If that's what we get I'll be on vacation Superbowl Sunday, what a horrible game...

That would definitely be the worst opition out of the 4 possible games.

just wondering why you think that?

the packers/jets game during year was 9-0.

[fezfezed]

Good stuff right there riggs, on the GB and Jets point spread. Good luck

[mojomaker11]

i'm liking green bay but i think pitt wins this one.

[Ninersnut]

Nice write up....I like the Steelers tho. Team just wins.

[the-phenomenal-1]

i think nfl might rig it to be those teams

[Shadowcat]

Good read... Have to go with the Steelers though, they are my team. Gonna be a great game today.

Our Offensive line is good, at C Pouncey is a BEAST... I hope we draft his brother this year.