Bears will slow down Aaron Rodgers

Green Bay's QB has made only one 'bad decision' since Week 8, but he can be slowed

By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
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Jonathan Daniel/Getty ImagesSlowing down Aaron Rodgers has been no small task in this year's NFL playoffs.


There were times when Bill Walsh was so eerily cognizant of how a game might play out that he seemed almost psychic.


Take the 1981 NFC Championship Game. The "NFL Today" pregame show for that contest had an interview that interspersed Walsh and Tom Landry's comments about the strengths and weaknesses of their respective teams.


Walsh offered a number of insightful blurbs, but the best one was when he told the interviewer that "the winning team will probably score four touchdowns and the loser will probably score three touchdowns." That prediction turned out to be right on the money, as the 49ers posted four touchdowns to the Cowboys' three on their way to a hard-fought 28-27 victory.


The likely reason Walsh said that is because he realized his Niners had allowed four touchdowns in a single game only twice during the entire 1981 season and one of those occurred way back in Week 3. It was his way of telling himself and his team that if they could find a way to put the ball in the end zone four times, they were almost certain to win the game.


Lovie Smith isn't part of the Walsh coaching tree, but in all likelihood he is approaching this Sunday's NFC title matchup in a similar way -- but from a defensive perspective.
Smith is probably thinking that, as well as his quarterback has played of late, there are a multitude of reasons to believe it isn't a good idea to try to win this game via a shootout (with many of those reasons listed here).
The game tape reviews show Rodgers has made only one bad decision after Week 8.



To paraphrase Walsh, Smith could be thinking the winning team in this game will score three touchdowns and the losing team two.


That raises the question: How can the Bears slow Aaron Rodgers and the explosive Packers offense down enough to keep them at that two-touchdown mark?


It might not seem like there is a clear path leading in that direction, but after taking a look at a variety of metrics, it's clear that a well-designed approach revolving around four objectives could allow Chicago to do just that. Let's lay those objectives out.


Objective No. 1: The Bears need to keep the number of possessions low. Most NFL games end up with an offense getting the ball 12 times, but it is not uncommon to see that number reduced to 10. Chicago's defense had five games in 2010 in which it held the opposition to 10 or fewer drives, and the Bears went 4-1 in those contests. Green Bay's offense also had six games of this nature (if the two games in which the 11th drive consisted of a kneel down by the quarterback are included), so it certainly can be done. In addition, it is worth noting that one of those Bears victories came against the Packers in Week 3.


Objective No. 2: Make Green Bay start as many drives as possible from inside its 30-yard line. The Packers had 105 drives start at that field position this year. Eight of them were end-of-half or end-of-game drives on which they weren't trying to score. Take those out and it leaves 97 meaningful drives starting inside the 30-yard line.


The Green and Gold offense scored 11 field goals and 19 touchdowns on those drives. That equates to a 31 percent score rate.


Now contrast that to Packers drives that started from outside of the 30-yard line. They had 72 of these (not counting the six end-of-game/end-of-half drives) and scored 11 field goals and 23 touchdowns on those possessions -- a 47 percent score rate. The difference between scoring 31 percent of the time and 47 percent of the time is huge, and it illustrates why Chicago has to keep Rodgers & Co. pinned down in their own territory as often as possible.


Objective No. 3: This one's simple: sack the quarterback. This is an obvious aim for any team, but it is especially important for the Bears because of how damaging sacks proved to be to the Packers' offense this year.


Green Bay scored on only eight out of 38 drives on which either Rodgers or Matt Flynn was sacked at some point during the series. Six of their eight scores were field goals and only two were touchdowns.


That means they put points on the scoreboard 21 percent of the time when a sack occurred, and only 5 percent of the time did they make it to the end zone. If the Bears could rack up sacks on three different drives, it alone could hamstring 25-30 percent of the Packers' scoring opportunities.


Objective No. 4: The last but possibly most important of the objectives is to take advantage of lucky bounces. The game tape reviews show Rodgers has made only one bad decision after Week 8, so getting him to make a mistake is highly unlikely.


As great as Rodgers was at avoiding throwing passes into coverage, he still had seven near interceptions in that time frame and had at least one near pickoff in every one of his full starts. Chicago has done an exceptional job of taking advantage of tipped passes that end up near their defenders and coming up with one of those fortuitous bounces could make all the difference.


Even if that kind of luck isn't on their side, if they are able to hit on all of the other goals listed above, Chicago could put an end to one of the greatest quarterback playoff hot streaks in history and punch a ticket to the Super Bowl, all at the same time.



KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He also can be found on Twitter @kcjoynertfs and at his website. He is the author of "Blindsided: Why the Left Tackle is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts."