1. #1
    iifold
    Update your status
    iifold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-25-10
    Posts: 11,111
    Betpoints: 1774

    AFC Championship (Jets @ Steelers)

    The Jets will travel to Pittsburgh this week to take on the Steelers for a chance to go to the Super Bowl. These two teams just played a month ago in Pittsburgh so we should have a pretty good idea of what to expect, problem is, so should the books. The Jets won a close game 22-17 back on December 19th and Vegas is expecting another close one making the Steelers small favorites at home. (-3.5 -105) Luckily for us, their last game was misleading, it will be a totally different outcome this week and I plan to take full advantage of it. Here are some things that will be different...

    The Atmosphere:

    Lets face it, there's home games, and then there is AFC Championship Home Games. It was probably a nice crowd a month ago, but no way will that crowd match what we will see this weekend. The towels will be waving faster and the people will be louder. This will be a factor...

    Motivation:

    A month ago, the Jets were 9-4, coming off a loss to the Dolpins, and staring at the Steelers and Bears on the schedule in the coming weeks. It was do or die time for them, they were still in survival mode.

    The Steelers on the other hand were 10-3 and had Carolina and Cleveland to finish out there schedule. They knew they could afford to cruise into the playoffs.

    Troy Polamalu Will Play:

    Now, I shouldn't have to explain how important this guy is, but I'll try. A month ago, the Steelers failed to intercept a pass and only sacked Sanchez one time. In case you haven't watched any Steelers games, this is what the long haired wild-man does, intercepts balls and sacks quarterbacks. Another thing that I noticed is that Braylon Edwards had 8 catches for about 100 yards last month. This will not be the case with Polamalu in the game. He is great at jumping slant routes, something Edwards and the Jets rely heavy on when they need crucial yardage. Polamalu is one of the most dominant defensive players in the league, and I can promise you he was missed on December 19th...

    Brad Smith Will Not Run Back Opening Kick:

    This guy didn't even play against the Patriots and I haven't even checked if he'll play this week. The guy with all the kids is a good replacement to run back kicks but either way the Jets won't run back the opening kick. Tomlin and the coaching staff wont let it happen. Why is this such a big deal you ask? The Jets play better than most teams with a lead, but play much worse than your average team when behind. It's who they are, they love to control the clock and keep things simple for their young quarterback. That opening TD for the Jets allowed them to play conservative that much longer into the game.

    The Steelers took a 17-10 lead in the third quarter last month, lets assume for a second they didn't have that return, the score could have easily been 17-3 and now Sanchez is forced to play like Warren Moon in his prime... Now lets assume the Steelers have Polamalu roaming around with this 17-3 lead. Are you starting to picture what I see happening this weekend???

    Reality Will Set In:

    Everything favors the Steelers, they are the better team, better quarterback, better defense, playing at home, I could go on and on, Ben is better in the cold than Sanchez, Steelers are built to stop the run while the Jets rely on the run... You could even say that the Jets are coming off an emotional high after their big win over the Patriots, but I never put much stock into that. The edge we have is the books know they will get Jets action and can afford to hang a line that is off by about 3-4 points. Lets not forget that the Steelers were 6 point favorites a month ago without Polamalu. With Polamalu they would have been about 7.5 point favorites, which is what I think the fair line is this week.

    Yeah, the Jets beat a soft Patriots team that they match up well with, lets see how they do this Sunday against a team that will punch them back...


    STEELERS -3 -130

  2. #2
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10


  3. #3
    Domestic
    Domestic's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-10-09
    Posts: 6,323
    Betpoints: 1756

    Like the play, love Roethlisberger in this spot.

  4. #4
    rfr3sh
    Blind Knucklehead
    rfr3sh's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-07-09
    Posts: 10,229
    Betpoints: 604

    ok fold not to be a dick
    but the way that funds shit has been going as a jets fan I am glad you are on the steelers

  5. #5
    thezbar
    .lent
    thezbar's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-29-06
    Posts: 6,398
    Betpoints: 1580

    Good write-up. I played the under [-38.5]. For one I doubt the Jets will turn Sanchez loose early in the game against the Steeler's defense. The will pound the ball. On the other side the Steeler's offensive line was getting beat up against the Raven's pass rush. The steeler's will also desire to establish a run presence. Mainly to take some heat of the qb .Plus injuries may dictate that type of game plan. I also the the fact that weather will be cold or worse. The # is above certain key numbers. 37,38. Both games should be enjoyable for the country to watch. But from a betting view point The under in this game is my best of the four possible plays this Sunday.

  6. #6
    Landscaper
    Banned
    Landscaper's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-12-10
    Posts: 2,712

    JETS..same old story their not as good, qb sucks, no way they can win...I will be on the Jets

  7. #7
    Scottish
    Scottish's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-21-10
    Posts: 588
    Betpoints: 259

    I agree with Steelers -3, the Jets shot their wad and won their Superbowl yesterday, fat Rex will be to busy watching people lick his wifes feet in celebration to win next week.

    Steelers shut down the running game and Sanchez hands them the game like Flacco did.

  8. #8
    KennyM10
    KennyM10's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-14-10
    Posts: 788

    Are you an employee of sbr? Why would this not be posted in the NFL sub forum with the rest of the nfl picks?

  9. #9
    tdog152
    tdog152's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-15-10
    Posts: 88
    Betpoints: 312

    Im taking pitt and the over

  10. #10
    iifold
    Update your status
    iifold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-25-10
    Posts: 11,111
    Betpoints: 1774

    ML has went from -185 to -200 at 5dimes...

    Will this line move to Steelers -4 soon??

    I think so...

  11. #11
    vwconn39
    vwconn39's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-26-10
    Posts: 77

    turnovers will be the story of the game and I agree with you Steelers to Super Bowl and Steelers minus the points

  12. #12
    iifold
    Update your status
    iifold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-25-10
    Posts: 11,111
    Betpoints: 1774

    Jets backers should ban themselves for a week if they lose...

    Only reasons people are backing the Jets...

    1. They are "sharp" so the only take underdogs...

    2. They don't watch/understand football and think the team that gets the most media coverage is the best...

    3. Think Big Ben is really a "Rapist" Rich, White, QB's do not rape women... More media driven bullshit..

    4. Are Mexican and simply want to see Sanchez win Super Bowl...

    If you have watched football all year long and think the Jets are going to go into the Steelers Backyard, in the cold, and beat them you are a Square...

    If the Steelers lose I will ban myself for a Month...

  13. #13
    DeluxeLiner
    DeluxeLiner's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-29-08
    Posts: 4,132
    Betpoints: 2280

    ...and make another ghost?

  14. #14
    rfr3sh
    Blind Knucklehead
    rfr3sh's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-07-09
    Posts: 10,229
    Betpoints: 604

    maybe because the jets are the better team

  15. #15
    Deuce
    Eddie Mush
    Deuce's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-12-08
    Posts: 29,843
    Betpoints: 3519

    and if Pitt loses, you're gone forever?

  16. #16
    dfberger23
    dfberger23's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-08-10
    Posts: 5,069
    Betpoints: 406

    foldii has been anti-Jets all year, this thread is no surprise.

    Jets played their best game of the year last week, if they play like that tomorrow then they will be going to Dallas in two weeks.

  17. #17
    iifold
    Update your status
    iifold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-25-10
    Posts: 11,111
    Betpoints: 1774

    Quote Originally Posted by rfr3sh View Post
    maybe because the jets are the better team
    Let's assume it's Sunday Night, one team is losing by so much that their coach is calling running plays in the fourth quarter to save his QB from getting hurt and ruining his confidence..

    You ever see a bunch of grown men fold their tents and admit to the world they are outmatched???

    We might see it tomorrow...
    Last edited by iifold; 01-22-11 at 11:56 AM.

  18. #18
    Landscaper
    Banned
    Landscaper's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-12-10
    Posts: 2,712

    foldii Jets r the better team..hope u don't throw away any of your shareholder's shares on this one

  19. #19
    iifold
    Update your status
    iifold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-25-10
    Posts: 11,111
    Betpoints: 1774

    This Thread was made to expose those that think they know football...

  20. #20
    Kindred
    Bitcoin=Freedom
    Kindred's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-08
    Posts: 2,901
    Betpoints: 473



    Any team can lose, Sunday it's Pitt

  21. #21
    iifold
    Update your status
    iifold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-25-10
    Posts: 11,111
    Betpoints: 1774

    Not ONE Jets backer willing to risk his 84 points..(42 for the posters that don't gamble, oh excuse me.. use locals..)

  22. #22
    EDDIE MONEY LINE
    Get duckets
    EDDIE MONEY LINE's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-24-10
    Posts: 6,298
    Betpoints: 3311

    king give me +190 Jets and I will put all my points in sbr book and wallet on it...and ur a joke

    Jets will not lose

  23. #23
    iifold
    Update your status
    iifold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-25-10
    Posts: 11,111
    Betpoints: 1774

    Lets just laugh at Rex, Sanchez, Jets, and their Backers (Please, no Words)


  24. #24
    iifold
    Update your status
    iifold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-25-10
    Posts: 11,111
    Betpoints: 1774

    Steelers Backers, Check In!!!!!

    The True Sharps...

    Fukkin Know-Nothing Jets Backers wont even show their faces...

    "They might win" "they have a chance".. This is what these sissy's are saying, leaving themselves an out because they really arn't that confident...

    I'm sick and tired of Players Talk now a days...

    Bunch of clueless fukks watching lines trying to scalp out 16$ to pay their metro pcs phone bills..

    The King is back to straighten this place back out...

    If you're a Steelers Backer, check in and let the bitch made Jets backers know how you feel...


  25. #25
    EDDIE MONEY LINE
    Get duckets
    EDDIE MONEY LINE's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-24-10
    Posts: 6,298
    Betpoints: 3311

    I Love knowing your on the Steelers...your a bum

    Jets will not lose!!!

  26. #26
    iifold
    Update your status
    iifold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-25-10
    Posts: 11,111
    Betpoints: 1774

    can't wait!!!!

  27. #27
    EDDIE MONEY LINE
    Get duckets
    EDDIE MONEY LINE's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-24-10
    Posts: 6,298
    Betpoints: 3311

    yes siiiiiiiirrrrrrrrrr!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  28. #28
    Rod1010
    Rod1010's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-01-10
    Posts: 6,208
    Betpoints: 25

    Wow im not touching this game anymore . ur like brocks retarded cousin

  29. #29
    dfberger23
    dfberger23's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-08-10
    Posts: 5,069
    Betpoints: 406

    Jets 24-20

  30. #30
    onetrickpony
    onetrickpony's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-23-10
    Posts: 9,434

    why do u want all the losers to check in?

    never understood that.

    Jets ML

  31. #31
    EDDIE MONEY LINE
    Get duckets
    EDDIE MONEY LINE's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-24-10
    Posts: 6,298
    Betpoints: 3311

    Let's goooooooo fellasssssss....Get green go JETS!!!!!!!!

  32. #32
    ebbearsfb1
    ebbearsfb1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-07-08
    Posts: 18,815
    Betpoints: 1694

    pittsburgh might as well not show up.. sbr is sharp

  33. #33
    Chugs
    Chugs's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-09
    Posts: 1,560
    Betpoints: 594

    I cant wait for the Jets to shut this fukk up.

  34. #34
    Grux
    Grux's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-24-09
    Posts: 494

    I am on the Steelers -3.

  35. #35
    RoyTarpley
    RoyTarpley's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-09-10
    Posts: 14

    hi!

123 Last
Top