[Sunde91]

Not a big trend guy, but I think it's significant in playoffs, as we see the exact same scenario playout year after year after year and parallels can be drawn.

Road playoff teams coming off round 1 win are 7-2 ATS in round since 2002
Teams coming off round 1 bye are 10-18 ATS since 2003

Since 2005, teams with a first round bye are 10-10 SU. Some notable results for 1st round byes last 3 years:

2007 #1 Cowboys beat by Giants 21-17
2007 #2 Colts beat by Chargers 28-24
2008 #2 Panthers beat by Cardinals 33-13
2008 #1 Titans beat by Ravens 13-10
2008 #1 Giants beat by Eagles 23-11
2009 #2 Chargers beat by Jets 17-14

1) Home field just does not mean that much in NFL, and clearly not in the playoffs.
2) Teams get hot and will ride momentum on the road and keep winning over flat teams off bye. Examples: 05 Steelers (#6th seed SB champs), 07 Giants (5th seed SB champs and this year's Packers (6th seed legit SB contender).
3) Inexperienced teams that killed it in the regular season with favorable schedules, i.e. Falcons, do not really benefit from bye. First, they already peaked months ago and now just sat around for 2 weeks. Second, the pressure is on them huge to win at home after such a good regular season. Thirdly, they don't have the experience or leadership to know how to appropriately respond to the situation.

Falcons, I think, are near perfect parallels to 08 Panthers and Titans. All 3 had great regular seasons, peaked early; little playoff experience (Panthers had some, yes); no real identity, don't do anything amazing, some solid defense/run game with a game manager at QB, bout it. So they're sitting content on their bye week, then they come out to the game with their mundaneness and then BAM; a hot AZ team with a great offense torches them, or a hot BALT team with a great defense shuts em down.

Well, you look at GB and they're #5 in total D, #2 in scoring D, have the #5 passing attack (and maybe most lethal), AND could have a decent running game now going with Starks. And now they're a little hot coming into mundane ATL. Seems like a perfect fit to me for another road win and another loss for a 1st round bye.

And with Balt/Pitt, +3.5 is a total gift, imo. Last 4 games between the two have been decided by exactly 3, and both are huge rivals. Balt is also a team that's done it and been there before; 4-2 SU on the road in playoffs since 2008.

Thinking history repeats itself here at least once on Saturday (GB over ATL, maybe Balt over Pitt) and some 1st round byes go down.

[Sunde91]

ML starting to tank just like last week with Philly game. So much respect for Packers here.

Also, a look at some of the teams ATL and GB have played:

GB road games - 2 wins @ Philly; shutout Jets @ Jets; held Pats to 250 yds @ Pats, lost by 4 giving up a 70 yd lineman KR to set up TD, and with a backup QB who threw pick 6, and pissed away game winning opportunity cause of inexperience; outgained CHI @ CHI by 103 yards, gave up KR TD and fumble on would-be game winning drive, lost by 3; outgained ATL @ ATL by 124 yds, and lost by 3 despite fumbling on goal line and Matt Ryan throwing 24-28.

ATL - 2x Panthers; NFC West; Ravens home; overrated Saints. Also beat by 3rd string QB in PITT; killed at Philly; overrated Saints won in ATL's Dome.

ATL benefits from a favorable schedule, while GB has had the most brutal road schedule in the league and were a couple plays away from winning @ NE, @ Chi, @ ATL.

[lyon804]

I like it. Nice work.

[No coincidences]

I like the post, Sunde. Nice analysis.

My question -- why is PIT/BAL -3.5? Why the hook? Almost every game between these two has been decided by a FG or less. IMHO, if the Ravens were the play, it'd be -2.5 or -3 at most. Public's on the Ravens, so if the hook stays, I'm on Pittsburgh.

Green Bay's my biggest play of the week, and has been from the second the line came out.

[Sunde91]

EDIT: GB ML down to +105 at BM, Greek; +103 at Pinny... Unreal, total deja vu, just like last week, and still 24 hours til kick...possibly favs by game time?

I like the post, Sunde. Nice analysis.

My question -- why is PIT/BAL -3.5? Why the hook? Almost every game between these two has been decided by a FG or less. IMHO, if the Ravens were the play, it'd be -2.5 or -3 at most. Public's on the Ravens, so if the hook stays, I'm on Pittsburgh.

Green Bay's my biggest play of the week, and has been from the second the line came out.

Would have thought it would be a solid -110 -3, but it might not be that outlandish. It's difficult to measure how much a first-round bye + HFA is worth.

If you look at the spreads over the last couple seasons in the divisional round, you will see some seemingly high spreads for a home fav that loses SU. Like in 2008, NYG were -4 over Eagles (two obvious rivals who play close and went 1-1 against eachother), and the Eagles won 23-11. Or conversely, the home fav with a relatively low spread might come out and kill the road dog getting respect. Like last year, Vikings were -2.5, and won 34-3. http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_poi...ff_games.shtml

It's also worth mentioning Pitt being -6 in 2008 over Balt in AFCCG where Pitt won 23-14.

I think the juiced +3.5 instead of +3 just shows a little more respect to PITT than Balt, but nothing too serious. And the action seems pretty even on the spread.

[The Seer]