1. 01-06-11 02:29 AM #1
    BigJohnny
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    Kansas City

    My model had this Kansas City vs. Baltimore game capped at PK (on neutral turf it would be Balt -3.5, at Balt would be -7)

    So my model indicates that there is some value here in the KC +3 line.

    What surprises me is the fact that the line hasn't budged at all.

    ~4-6% of the money is on KC ATS, but the line hasn't even moved up half a point since the opening. Knowing the public is heavy on Baltimore, they know they can move the line up to +3.5 (CRITICAL NUMBER) and still retain ~10-15% on KC ATS, but they don't. The books are taking a HEAVY side on KC.

    ~95% of the money ATS is on Baltimore. But the line hasn't moved!

    I'm going to have to make a play on KC +3 here fellas. It's a playoff game, all the Joe Schmoes are out to play, this game is going to be an epic pubic burial.
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  2. 01-06-11 07:59 AM #2
    justwinthisone
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    keep thinking that.....Balt will win easily, they are playoff tested. they can win in the playoffs on the road and they are playing an average team at best.
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  3. 01-06-11 08:21 AM #3
    thebertshow
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    If I wanted KC, I would wait. The line will move to 3.5 or more.
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  4. 01-06-11 08:48 AM #4
    ochenta y cinco
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    I find it strange too, but the line did go from -1 @ +100 (opening line) to currently -3 @ -110...

    In the end, it doesn't matter because the Ravens are going to be taking care of business come Sunday.
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  5. 01-06-11 10:00 AM #5
    zoso11871
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    I like KC.
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  6. 01-06-11 10:55 AM #6
    fsfalcons
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    Bowe is gonna light them up at arrowhead
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  7. 01-06-11 10:45 PM #7
    BigJohnny
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    Line still has not moved. 95% of the money is on Baltimore.

    The public is going to get buried on Sunday.
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  8. 01-07-11 07:38 AM #8
    gti175
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    Baltimore is going to crush kc and The crowd will be out
    Of it by halftime..
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  9. 01-07-11 07:50 AM #9
    dwang0725
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    Ravens ML. Raven's will get off to a strong start, but will allow KC back in the game late.
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  10. 01-07-11 07:52 AM #10
    Cinquefoil
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    Quote Originally Posted by dwang0725 View Post
    Ravens ML. Raven's will get off to a strong start, but will allow KC back in the game late.
    Just like every Ravens game this year... ugh.
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  11. 01-07-11 07:57 AM #11
    xxxvince
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    everyone is on ravens.. me too.. hope the books dont screw us up on this one
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  12. 01-07-11 07:57 AM #12
    DblDeuce
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    Gd luck with your play!
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  13. 01-08-11 10:12 PM #13
    BigJohnny
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    Anyone have the ability to back track playoff games where less than 10% of the money is ATS?
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  14. 01-08-11 10:15 PM #14
    beerman2619
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    After watching the Seahawks beat the Saints who knows about any of these games ha. There is no lock in football thats for sure.
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  15. 01-08-11 10:17 PM #15
    ebbearsfb1
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    Read my thread.... ravens win in a rout tomorrow.. nfl need that's to happen
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  16. 01-08-11 10:28 PM #16
    BigJohnny
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    For all you squares saying Baltimore -3 is a lock, do you think the books are ran by Australopithecus like Caldwell or Ty Smith?

    The line has been Baltimore -3 since the opening, with 90%+ on the Ravens. The line has NOT moved. Unless you think Vegas likes giving out cash, I suggest you side with KC ATS.
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  17. 01-08-11 10:36 PM #17
    brewcrew2k
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    Lets be Honest the Ravens have not even been that good this year....
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  18. 01-08-11 10:36 PM #18
    ScreaminPain
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigJohnny View Post
    My model had this Kansas City vs. Baltimore game capped at PK
    You might want to take a better look at your "model", BigJohnny...

    Good Luck on your action...
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  19. 01-08-11 10:54 PM #19
    kcDdegenerate
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    model


    Ravens will roll tomorrow.
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  20. 01-08-11 11:01 PM #20
    kcDdegenerate
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    The line wont move because its a playoff game between 2 good teams with the road team being a 3 pt fave @ Arrowhead...Quit overthinking it..
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  21. 01-08-11 11:04 PM #21
    BigJohnny
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    There's no need to 'over think'. Vegas wasn't built by degenerates like you. The lines not moving because the Ravens -3 is a SQUARE play.
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  22. 01-08-11 11:14 PM #22
    Joe Dogs
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigJohnny View Post
    Anyone have the ability to back track playoff games where less than 10% of the money is ATS?

    This is for 2000 games played in seven seasons.

    If a home team has < 20% of the public money and the visitor has 80%>

    This resulted in a 54.2 winning % for the home team.
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  23. 01-08-11 11:52 PM #23
    kcDdegenerate
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigJohnny View Post
    There's no need to 'over think'. Vegas wasn't built by degenerates like you. The lines not moving because the Ravens -3 is a SQUARE play.



    talk to me when you can post all your picks in 1 thread and go 69-45 for the season...no such things as squares or sharps...just winners and losers

    and you lost both today
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  24. 01-09-11 12:03 AM #24
    305GURU
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    Ravens in a close one...the ravens blitz schemes will get to cassell...Ravens Dline should control the line of scrimmage...forcing them to make cassell force throws and u know whos always lurking..mr ed reed...ray rice will have a monster game so will boldin and mason...GL
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  25. 01-09-11 12:04 AM #25
    BigJohnny
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    I'll have the final laugh when you and the squares go down in a heaping pile of sh1t tmr.

    Baltimore -3 is going to bury the world.
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  26. 01-09-11 12:13 AM #26
    kcDdegenerate
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigJohnny View Post
    I'll have the final laugh when you and the squares go down in a heaping pile of sh1t tmr.

    Baltimore -3 is going to bury the world.


    coming from a guy that played Saints -10.5 and Colts -2.5....I dont believe in squares or sharps,but those 2 plays look pretty fckin square to me
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  27. 01-09-11 12:16 AM #27
    BigJohnny
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    I suppose you weren't riding the Saints?
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  28. 01-09-11 12:26 AM #28
    kcDdegenerate
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigJohnny View Post
    I suppose you weren't riding the Saints?


    yea I had saints but if you read my thread,i pounded jets for 4 units..Last time I checked,4 units is better than 1 unit
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  29. 01-09-11 12:29 AM #29
    BigJohnny
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    I lost 2 units today, boo hoo fella.

    I'm laying down a 5 unit tmr with KC.

    How many units are you going to lose tmr with Balt?
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  30. 01-09-11 01:10 AM #30
    kcDdegenerate
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigJohnny View Post
    I lost 2 units today, boo hoo fella.

    I'm laying down a 5 unit tmr with KC.

    How many units are you going to lose tmr with Balt?

    Im disciplined and smart...I bet all my games 1 unit...3 times this season i pounded a game (4 units)...won all 3.... i can lose the rest of the playoffs and i will still be up for the season


    btw...5 units on a shit team is just stupid
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  31. 01-09-11 01:33 AM #31
    BigJohnny
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    Right, and I suppose 5 units is such a far fetch from 4 units.

    Put your money where your mouth is, pussi. I'll be riding high after KC +3 cashes in for 5 dimes.

    Make sure to hydrate yourself, the hangover isn't as bad when you got fluids in your system.

    Don't come to me when Baltimore buries you and the world tmr. Only fools like you would hop on the 90% ATS bandwagon.

    , people like you keep the books in business.
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  32. 01-09-11 06:33 AM #32
    BebeRebozo
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigJohnny View Post
    ...an epic pubic burial.
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  33. 01-09-11 07:42 AM #33
    wquine
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    KC can pull this off, but anyone claiming that its set in stone is stoned.
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  34. 01-09-11 07:47 AM #34
    monkeyking
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    not set in stone, but +3.5 is too good to pass up IMO
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  35. 01-09-11 09:52 AM #35
    kcDdegenerate
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigJohnny View Post
    Right, and I suppose 5 units is such a far fetch from 4 units.

    Put your money where your mouth is, pussi. I'll be riding high after KC +3 cashes in for 5 dimes.

    Make sure to hydrate yourself, the hangover isn't as bad when you got fluids in your system.

    Don't come to me when Baltimore buries you and the world tmr. Only fools like you would hop on the 90% ATS bandwagon.

    , people like you keep the books in business.



    I have seen your previous post other than saints and Colts yesterday..

    People like me says the lemon


    BTW...Eagles will lose for you too
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