1. #1
    kobebryant55
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    Kobe's 2 Picks of Sunday (2-0 Last Week)

    Hey everyone, not saying im the best not bragging i posted my two picks last week with a nice write up no one read them or cared but oh well i'll do it again.

    The Ravens look real tempting and I may kick myself in the ass for not taking them but anyway to my two picks of the week, which happen to both be 4:05 ET games meaning this thread will fall off to page 4 and everyone will say oh your a monday morning qb you suck ass, way to brag, if i say i capped these two games right. Not my intentions i want all of you to win not me brag about how bad/good i am.. in any event...

    Chargers -8 @ CIN

    #1CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Terrell Owens is done for the year. Chad Ochocinco is limited with an ankle injury. The two guys saving Carson Palmer from being completely inept are done. Pick-six party time!

    If you're wondering why Palmer didn't throw any back-breaking interceptions last week, it's because the Bengals ran the ball extremely well against the Browns. They won't have as much success this week; save for one outlier, the Chargers have restricted their previous five opponents to 59 or fewer rushing yards.

    Without Cedric Benson piling up chunks of yardage, Palmer will constantly be under pressure, San Diego leads the NFL in sacks with 44.

    SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: The Bengals have tons of injuries on defense, particularly in their secondary. As a mere rookie, Colt McCoy couldn't fully exploit that last week. Philip Rivers definitely will.

    The Chargers will also have Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert picking up significant yardage. The Bengals limited Peyton Hillis and the Browns to 59 rushing yards, but Cleveland still gained more than four yards per carry in the process - and Cincinnati defensive tackle Domata Peko even admitted that the team sold out against the run on most downs. The Bengals will not be able to do that against San Diego for obvious reasons.

    RECAP: I have no situational angles to support this selection, but I think this game will be a blowout. The Chargers are on fire, and the Bengals have just lost way too many key players to injury.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No emotional edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.
    Bet you can't guess where the money is going.
    Percentage of money on San Diego: 82% (49,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chargers. Philip Rivers is 18-10 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30 (6-2 ATS as an underdog).
    Bengals are 10-6 ATS as underdogs since 2009.
    Opening Line: Chargers -7.
    Opening Total: 44.5.
    Weather: Possible snow, 30 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.


    Week 16 NFL Pick: Chargers 31, Bengals 10
    Chargers -8 (1 Unit)
    Under 43.5 (0 Units)


    New York Giants (9-5) at Green Bay Packers (8-6)
    Line: Packers by 3. Total: 43.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Packers -3 (Rodgers) or Giants -3 (Flynn).
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Packers -3 (Rodgers) or Giants -1.5 (Flynn).
    Sunday, Dec. 26, 4:15 ET
    Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Giants.

    don't count on the Packers scoring tons of points. Green Bay's offensive line has been very shaky of late, surrendering 13 sacks in the past three weeks. No one puts pressure with the front four like the Giants, so Rodgers could be running for his life Sunday afternoon.

    New York ranks fourth against the pass in terms of YPA, so even on the rare occasions that Rodgers gets time in the pocket, the Packers won't necessarily score or even move the chains.

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: Like the Giants, Green Bay applies tons of pressure on the quarterback, with Clay Matthews currently second in the NFL in sacks. However, New York finally has its offensive line at full strength again, which is huge. Eli Manning certainly looked great against the Eagles last week before that fourth-quarter meltdown.

    The Giants will also have success moving the chains via the running game; the Packers used to have a top-10 rush defense, but they've really struggled in that department lately. They've surrendered at least 75 rushing yards to all but one opponent since their Week 10 bye, and three of those teams rushed for more than four yards per carry.

    With Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs due to rebound off last week's mediocre performance, Manning will have even more time in the pocket.


    I love the Giants for so many reasons:

    1. Let's clear one popular misconception. The Giants' collapse against the Eagles will not ruin their season; in fact, it may just be the thing that strengthens their Super Bowl chances.

    Let's look at some of the most amazing comebacks in recent history, and how the losers performed the following week. Note that the victims of these comebacks are all favorites or short underdogs; I didn't want to look at large dogs because that's a different dynamic:


    Colts 38, Buccaneers 35 - Tampa led 35-14 with five minutes left in regulation on a Monday night. Peyton Manning rallied his team to win in overtime. Six days later, the Buccaneers went into Washington as three-point favorites and won, 35-13.

    Jets 40, Dolphins 37 - This Monday night affair was insane. The Dolphins led 30-7 early in the fourth quarter. Six days after blowing that huge lead, the Dolphins beat the Packers as 3.5-point home favorites, 28-20.

    Ravens 44, Seahawks 41 - The Seahawks led the Ravens, 41-24, with eight minutes remaining in regulation back in 2003. Baltimore eventually won in overtime. The following week, Seattle beat Cleveland, 34-7, as 6.5-point home favorites.

    Rams 33, Texans 27 - Houston led this one at halftime, 24-3. Ryan Fitzpatrick rallied the Rams back to win by six. The Texans didn't win the following week, but they covered as 7.5-point road dogs at Baltimore, losing 16-15.

    Now, let's look at two blown leads by the Giants:

    Titans 32, Giants 29 - The Giants led this matchup 26-14 midway through the fourth quarter back in 2002. The late Steve McNair rallied Tennessee to victory. A week later, New York won at Washington, 27-21, as three-point dogs.

    Titans 24, Giants 21 - Four years later, Vince Young rallied the Titans back from down 21-0 in the fourth quarter. The Giants lost to the Cowboys the following Sunday, but pushed as three-point underdogs. The point here is that New York's season didn't fall apart.

    Oh, but what about a walk-off punt return? That has never happened before, right?

    Eagles 14, Giants 10 - Seven years ago, Brian Westbrook scored a game-winning touchdown on a punt return to beat New York at the Meadowlands. Did the Giants crumble? Nope - they went into Minnesota as 5.5-point underdogs the following week, and won, 29-17.

    As you can see, the reports of the Giants' demise have been greatly exaggerated.

    2. The Packers are coming off an emotional loss. They put everything they had into that New England game, and nearly pulled off a huge upset. It reminded me a lot of the Patriots-Eagles Sunday night battle back in 2007, when Philadelphia's backup quarterback, A.J. Feeley, nearly took down undefeated New England.

    The Eagles lost in the final few seconds, and were completely flat against the Seahawks the following week (told you I'd explain that Seattle 28, Philadelphia 24 anomaly).

    3. But Aaron Rodgers will be back. Won't that help? No. As I often mention, good teams play well with their backup quarterback. But when the starter returns to the lineup, those same teams usually play pretty poorly, especially as favorites. Just take a look at Chicago's loss to Seattle when Jay Cutler displaced Todd (Tom) Collins. Or last year, when the Steelers lost to Oakland as huge home favorites a week after battling valiantly against the Ravens with Dennis Dixon.

    4. The Packers are a false favorite; teams laying points after two or more consecutive losses generally don't cover. Mike McCarthy is 2-4 against the spread in this situation.

    5. Green Bay is a home favorite after having just lost two road games in a row. Teams in this dynamic are 31-49 ATS since 2002.

    As you can tell, I'm smitten with the Giants this week.

    The Giants fit four situational angles. The only games this year that have fit at least four angles have been the:

    Raiders +7 over the Broncos in Week 7 (Won, 59-14)
    Cardinals +7 over the Vikings in Week 9 (Lost but covered, 27-24)
    Panthers +7 over the Buccaneers in Week 10 (Lost, 31-16)
    Patriots +4 over the Steelers in Week 10 (Won, 39-26) - November Pick of the Month
    Dolphins +4.5 over the Jets in Week 14 (Won, 10-6)
    Packers +14 over the Patriots in Week 15 (Lost but covered, 31-27).

    This is 5-1 against the spread this year. As you can tell, I'm pretty confident with my Giants pick. Good luck to those of you who are betting on it.

    LOCKED IN: I'll take the +3. I'd rather pass on the +3.5 than risk it falling to +2.5.


    The Psychology. Edge: Giants.
    The Packers are coming off a heart-breaking loss as a big underdog to the Patriots. Will the Giants be down? I don't think so. Back in 2003, the Buccaneers blew a big lead in a short period of time as favorites on Monday Night Football, but bounced back with a win six days later.


    The Vegas. Edge: Packers.
    Early action on the Giants, but it's sort of evened out. Percentage of money on New York: 62% (37,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Giants. Giants are 27-13 ATS on the road since 2006.
    Giants are 17-13 ATS after a loss since 2005.
    Packers are 15-10 ATS in December home games since 2000.
    Opening Line: Packers -3.
    Opening Total: 43.
    Weather: Flurries, 23 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 16 NFL Pick: Giants 23, Packers 17
    Giants +3 (8 Units - December NFL Pick of the Month)
    Under 43 (0 Units)

  2. #2
    Night-Tripper
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    At the very least you should post the link to the site where you got the write-ups from...

    http://walterfootball.com/

  3. #3
    Broken-Ear Glen
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    ...nice try

  4. #4
    Night-Tripper
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    Quote Originally Posted by Broken-Ear Glen View Post
    ...nice try
    Kobe b


  5. #5
    Siresco
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    FAIL

  6. #6
    Night-Tripper
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    Quote Originally Posted by kobebryant55 View Post
    Hey everyone, not saying im the best not bragging i posted my two picks last week with a nice write up no one read them or cared but oh well i'll do it again.

    The Ravens look real tempting and I may kick myself in the ass for not taking them but anyway to my two picks of the week, which happen to both be 4:05 ET games meaning this thread will fall off to page 4 and everyone will say oh your a monday morning qb you suck ass, way to brag, if i say i capped these two games right. Not my intentions i want all of you to win not me brag about how bad/good i am.. in any event...
    Kobe... don't you think it's time to man-up and admit that you didn't *cap* or write diddlyshit?

    Then again, if I'd been caught with my panties down around my ankles as you were, I'd probably crawl into a posting hole until I'd created another name.

  7. #7
    Siresco
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    you could have atleast put the terms in your own words..

  8. #8
    ImmortalKrop
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    Lmao!!

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