Here's what I'm thinking for the best picks this week. Let me know what you think.

Dallas -7 over Arizona
If Derek Anderson thought that San Francisco game was funny, he must have been laughing his a*s off last week at Carolina. I’m pretty sure Fitzgerald was watching last week’s Monday Night game pretty closely hoping this whole “starting a WR at QB” trend would take off. He has to be better than Skelton, right? The Cowboys Fu*ked me last week by blowing the cover vs. the Skins, but if we ignore the 4th quarter of that game, since Garrett took over, Dallas has given us almost 6 weeks worth of evidence showing they can take care of business versus bad teams and hang in there with good ones (5-1 ATS). I think they continue that trend against a pathetic, demoralized Cardinals team which has lost by 7+ points in 8 of their 10 losses this year. We know Dallas is going to score points so what’s the alternative here? John Skelton gets fired up after that bad loss and puts up 300 yards on Dallas’s defense? I doubled my bet on Dallas just thinking about that. By the way, how depressing is your life if you’re a Cardinals fan and the best thing you have to do on Christmas night is go watch your team lose by 30.

Detroit +3.5 over Miami
My Detroit Lions have been a covering machine this year (9-4 ATS). Unfortunately I wasn’t able to capitalize on this because 20 years worth of watching Lions football has taught me that Lions games are painful enough without being financially invested in them. However, in week 16 I’m finally ready to hop on this gravy train and back my boys financially as well as emotionally (this almost undoubtedly means this train is headed straight for fu*king mashed potato mountain and a fiery wreck). Stanton has been surprisingly serviceable in the last couple games, but Hill could be back this week and he is without a doubt an upgrade at QB. (You know your team is in a bad place when you start getting excited that Shaun Hill is coming back, but who cares, suck it Minnesota, Carolina, Arizona, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Washington, and Denver. You wish you had Shaun Hill.) Also, Detroit is no stranger to playing for pride, and I think they’re fired up about their 2 game winning streak. Contrasting that with the Dolphins, who just got officially knocked out of the playoffs, I think Detroit is in a better place emotionally for this game. Miami has not looked good in their last three games and could easily be on a 3 game losing streak, but they somehow snuck out a win vs. NYJ with only 130 yards of offense. Miami is 2-4 ATS at home and I think that trend continues this week. Grab this line before it goes down to +3.

NYJ +2.5 over Chicago
This is a matchup of Bill Belichick's bi*ches. This should be a classic hangover game for the Bears. They’re coming off a miserably cold Monday Night game and are feeling pretty good about themselves after locking up the division. They still have home field to play for obviously, but I guarantee you none of them had a first round bye in mind coming into the season. They’re taking a look at that pile of sh*t they have for an offense and they’re happy to be there. Looking back at the Bears’s schedule the only team they’ve beaten that the majority of people would now consider “good” is the Eagles. The second best team was the Packers at home, but I believe I remember a number of fluky things happening in that game, and also the Packers aren’t a top-10 team. The Bears deserve credit for taking care of business against subpar opponents, but let’s just remember who we’re talking about when they actually face a top team like the Jets. The Jets are coming off an impressive win over Pittsburgh where Sanchez finally looked a little more comfortable in the cold (he was still only 19/29 for 170 yards and 0 TDs so let’s not go too crazy.) If anyone is capable of keeping their team fired up after a big win it’s Rex Ryan. I think they’ll be able to ride this momentum and beat up on a solid, but overrated, Bears team.

KC -5 over Tennessee
This is a good example of a must win team vs. a team with nothing left to play for. I see no reason why CJ and the rest of the Titans won’t be hitting the strip club with VY in search of some VD this week. You may argue that this was the same situation last week versus Houston, but even the Texans aren’t dumb enough to believe they had a shot at making the playoffs so Tennessee showing up against a mediocre divisional opponent, at home, with Foster injured, doesn’t win me over. Vegas still doesn’t want to take KC seriously (and maybe rightfully so), but they take care of business at home (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS). Also, Cassel looked shaky early on in the St. Louis game, but pulled it together nicely toward the end and I think another week of rest will do him well. This isn’t to say that Todd Haley won’t try to lose this one by handing the ball to Thomas Jones every chance he gets. However, I think that if necessary, a couple defensive linemen should be able to hold him down on the sideline long enough to sneak Jamaal Charles the ball and score some touchdowns. I like KC in a blowout in this one. By the way, am I the only one who feels bad about themselves when I hear the type of sh*t these guys play through? Cassel has emergency appendectomy surgery then he’s out there getting hit by fat guys 10 days later. I spent all day yesterday complaining about having a headache. Really puts into perspective what a pus*y I am.