[Vinnybagadonuts]

Figured I'd throw my 2 cents in.

Three things tonight that have my attention:

1. Divisional game with a top running back vs. a team with a terrible run defense. Tennessee wasn't made to throw the ball, and quite honestly, they suck at it. But they can run against teams that can't stop it. I look for Johnson to have a great night on prime time, and to fire up his team.

2. Teams that have lost 5 or more consecutive games to the spread and are coming off a straight up loss are actually 22-1 ATS since November of 2006, including 4-0 ATS this season. (Dallas vs. NY Giants as a 13.5 pt. underdog is the one that stands out the most.) Tennessee is in that spot this evening.

3. Vegas does not give away free money. This game reminds me of a MNF matchup a few years ago where Denver came to Cincinnati, and Cincy was a substantial home dog. More than 85% of the public (including me) was on Denver, and Cincy won outright. I told myself then, that should a spot like this occur again, I wouldn't be on the wrong side. Vegas cleaned up that night.

I'm overwhelmed by the one thing that everyone keeps saying - "Peyton can't lose 4 in a row." (Or "Peyton will bounce back.")

Why? He didn't two weeks ago, after throwing 4 picks against NE. He threw 3 against SD. He didn't last week - throwing 3 picks and single-handedly giving Dallas 2 TD's and a FG.

So why tonight, on the road? Against a divisional opponent that I'm sure would like nothing better than to stick it to the Colts and tie them in the division.

Peyton is not the same as we're used to seeing. His game is off. He has personal things bigger than football going on, and it has to affect him (to some degree.) He has no offensive protection, and no running game. His best receivers are hurt or out, and they're not playing with a lot of confidence.

So, for me, the smart play is to take Tennessee with the points.

I'm sure there will be some intelligent points on why to take Indy (along with some retarded posts flaming my pick), but I just think Tennessee is the play here.

Tenn +3 @ 2.05 $500 to win $525

Tenn ML @ 2.55 $100 to win $155

Best of luck with whatever you do.

[beerman2619]

well titans haven't been running the last couple games. You telling me the Texans and Jags have good run defenses nope they don't. This game is a toss up 2 bad teams i would stay away from this game.

[Vinnybagadonuts]

3. Vegas does not give away free money. This game reminds me of a MNF matchup a few years ago where Denver came to Cincinnati, and Cincy was a substantial home dog. More than 85% of the public (including me) was on Denver, and Cincy won outright. I told myself then, that should a spot like this occur again, I wouldn't be on the wrong side. Vegas cleaned up that night.

I'm sure there will be some intelligent points on why to take Indy (along with some retarded posts flaming my pick), but I just think Tennessee is the play here.

Tenn +3 @ 2.05 $500 to win $525

Tenn ML @ 2.55 $100 to win $155

Best of luck with whatever you do.

$600 in, $1,025 out. I'll take it.

For those who will probably say whatever...

All I need to do is remind you of the Indy at Philly game on November 7th this year.

Eagles up by 9 with less than 2 minutes to go. Peyton drives them down the field and gets a few lucky calls, including a "hit to the helmet" that sustained the drive.

They ended up scoring a TD with little time left in the game, and lost by two.

The spread was PHI -3.

Sound familiar?

In all seriousness, I'm astounded by how people bicker back and forth here. The goal should be to win money, not one up each other.

Say what you like, but Vegas and the NFL got what they wanted this evening. Colts win, which is good for business (for the NFL), and Vegas got the public money.

You should have seen it coming; you only needed to look 1 month back for a preview.

If you couldn't see it coming, then perhaps you shouldn't knock those who could.

Peace,
Vin

[Fleeben]

Bragging about the luckiest backdoor yet this year....pure class.

[Vinnybagadonuts]

Bragging about the luckiest backdoor yet this year....pure class.

Bragging? Hardly.

If you think it was luck, then you weren't paying attention.

All I said was that if it looks too easy, then it is - and provided an example to back it up.

Just sick of the fact that if you don't vote with the masses here that people think your a dumbass.