[alex81]

Hi guys,

As I mentionned last week, I have been very successful lately by closely monitoring line movement. My posted picks went 4-0 last week and I could have done even better if I added more plays that I felt met the criteria. This week there are a few plays on my radar.

1) K.C. -9, opened -6.5 = 2.5 pt

The Chiefs have a the ability to score 40 pts against a weak defense. More importantly, there is a huge revenge factor as Denver killed them earlier this year.

2) Chicago -4.5, opened -3.5 = 1 pt

The movement was triggered by the annoucement of 3rd stringer Drew Stanton starting at qb.

3) Buffalo +5.5, opened +6.5 = 1 pt

The Bills have been covering spreads as an underdog week after week with Fitzpatrick at qb. Most games have beem decided by 3 pts.

4) Carolina +5.5, opened 6.5 = 1 pt

I am a little confused with this one. I guess that Seattle at 5-6 in the nfc west is not much better than Carolina at this point. Can this be an upset win for the Panthers?

I'm personally gonna bet on all of these games. I may post a few more plays with smaller line movement before gametime.

[V2daTizzo]

Panthers down to +4.5...just weird

[alex81]

Really? That's crazy cuz the public is on Seattle. This change is driven by sharp $$$

[wacked]

There is a RLM thread already for NFL.
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-handic...52031-rlm.html

[alex81]

Only Carolina is actually rlm... My plays are based on line movement in general not specifically rlm.

On another note, bears line likely won't go beyond 4.5 this is because detroit has lost 3 in a row su and ats. Sharp players will be playing detroit as the first attempt on a 3 series chase system. However, this is a chase system and I'd be very surprised if detroit covers since the bears d vs drew stanton is a huge mismatch.

Also, similar to detroit, tennessee has lost and failed to cover 4 in a row. The titans are a 3 pt fave and the public is all over the jags. Watch closely to see if the line goes to 3.5. Either way I am all over this game since I'm positive that the titans will cover with collins playing.

[blujay55]

Good stuff Alex

[alex81]

My pleasure buddy!

Buffalo and Carolina really picking up steam. Both currently sit at 4.5. Don't worry about if these are public plays or not just focus on the action... Purely 1 sided movement since the opening lines at 6.5.

[alex81]

Also adding SD -13. This is only a 0.5 pt movement but I'm loving the Bolts playing at home in a revenge spot.

To summarize I'm liking...

Buffalo, Carolina, SD, KC, Chicago

[c4yrslf12]

BOL alex, looks pretty solid.

[oakland23]

Seattle will win 10-12 point minimum! Carolina s*cks. Carolina 1-10

[Wayne]

Also adding SD -13. This is only a 0.5 pt movement but I'm loving the Bolts playing at home in a revenge spot.

To summarize I'm liking...

Buffalo, Carolina, SD, KC, Chicago

Are you still liking Tenn? Gl today!

[alex81]

Are you still liking Tenn? Gl today!

lovin ten even if the line stays put... Interestingly ten ml is -180
BOL everyone!!!

[DDT]

Thanks Alex, nice work!

[jtarbear]

Thanks Alex.