[a4u2fear]

Atl @ Home
38.2 PF avg
26.9 PA avg
Has played #3 D in Sea (36 pts) and #7 D in KC (28 pts) and a few in 10-20 range, and then a few of the worst Ds in the league

GB @ Road
27.1 PF avg
28.6 PA Avg
Has played a few of the top Ds in the league in Dal (34 pts) and Min (14 pts) and then a mixture of ok Ds and bad Ds

Previous matchup Atl 33-32 in Atl

The odds for playoff lines are pretty sharp, Atl vs Sea was a "betting line" of Atl 28.5-22.5 (or close to it)

GB vs Dal was Dal 29-24

Now the "betting line" is Atl 32.25-27.75

In my opinion, the line looks spot on. But that would be if all things considered, GB wasn't a mess in their secondary.

I would be EXTREMELY surprised if Atlanta didn't get to 35 points or more; which they have done vs nearly every type and rank of D they've faced at home this season. They excel where GB is extremely weak, the passing game. There is no reason to believe GB will shut them down.

So if you're going to bet GB, you have to believe that AR can keep up with them. While he almost certainly has the ability to, it's asking a lot every week. I don't buy any hype that Jordy Nelson will play and if he does, he won't be anywhere near useful. I think it's a ploy for Atl to game plan him.

Outside of the first quarter or 1.5 quarters last week (and of course the final play), AR's numbers were mediocre. Now maybe it was part of playing conservative, but being a bettor on GB last week on the ML, I wanted nothing to do with an OT game. I had zero confidence that GB could stop Dal. They needed very weak calls to stop them early in the game.

Atlanta also has a very underrated running game. Will they use it? Who knows.

It's worth noting that Atlantas last 5 home games they've held the opponent to 19 (6 rank offense Arz), 29 (13 rank offense KC), 13 (SF 27 rank), 32 (NO 2nd rank), and 20 (Sea rank 18). So as bad as their defense seems, outside of the first four home games including GB, they gave up 31,33,33,32.; it's not as bad as it would seem.

GB is hot, but when you need your QB to play nearly perfect every week, I just think the train stops this week. If GB's secondary was healthy, they would be the play.

Vegas doesn't give free money away, ask yourself, how many people do you know on GB right now? Every one and their mother, and they're still 4.5-5 points away. And vegas was torched last week.

I'll be on Atlanta ML, spread, and TT over.

Good luck

[lakerboy]

Falcons get 45 points

[Seaweed]

21-17 final

[BIGDAY]

A Rog firing on all cylinders. He shreds ATL's d.

Take the over and call it a day.

[Sam Odom]

Stats mean absolutely nothing if you are betting the spread

[BetweenHerCheeks]

Using season stats at this stage of the year is non-predictive. I'd refine that to the last two CALENDAR months at the most

[Goat Milk]

Using season stats at this stage of the year is non-predictive. I'd refine that to the last two CALENDAR months at the most

Exactly. Teams are way different now than during the season. Injuries. Momentum. Playoff atmosphere. Etc. GB is way too banged up. Remember how bad devante adams was last year when he was injured with an ankle? Looks like he's injured again. Packers are fukked. They pretty much have to score on every possession. Falcons not punting more than 3 times all game.

[k13]

Atlanta easy.
I have GB 50-1 to win SB.

[StackinGreen]

50-1, let's see the ticket

I said at the time I had 18-1, that was after week 14, was 18-1 ... so when are you claiming, after week 11 when 4-6?

[blowjoe2020]

GB doesn't even have a Running back do they? We (ATL) have 2 backs who can catch too. The NFL has gone to a lot of offense and a little defense, and the Falcons fit that perfectly. Hell, who knows, it might be 17 - 9 or something, but when you think ATL will prob get 35 points, then to take GB you have to think they will get 31 points again without a running back.

[pologq]

if you count the injuries and how good falcons looked i thought the line opened a little low. i think they want money on the falcons. now the line has made a move to 6. ill buy it to 7.

[a4u2fear]

I got Atlanta on Dec 3 at 15-1, they were 7-4

I got NE on Oct 26 at 2.5-1, they were 6-1

[BigdaddyQH]

21-17 final

Not even close. That may be the First Half score.