1. #1
    strictlypaypal
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    Super Bowl 51 winner / vegas casino question

    Hello everyone I've been scheming and looking for value on a Super Bowl winner future bet and I'm thinking about putting around $5k on Seattle at +600 odds which would net $30k (just went to +600 from +400) with the loss at Tampa yesterday (which plays well for me because I don't feel that loss said anything about this team).

    Currently patriots sit at +220 and Dallas at +300 which I think is ludacris. Heavy $ coming in on patriots obviously because they're the patriots and always seem like a safe pick at this time of the year. And I'm sure heavy $ coming in on Dallas as well, they're so popular and on fire right now vegas has now choice but to put em at +300. I like stability with these type of bets, Carroll and bellichik to me are stable but patriots defense isn't the same as when they beat the hawks in SB49. I know Seahawks aren't as strong either but they are still very very good just with a sputtery offense but it's always been like that. No value at +220 for the patriots. I also don't buy the cowboys in the playoffs at all. 1st thing Seahawks have a decent shot at winning out their remaining games - vs panthers, @ packers, vs rams, vs cards, and @49ers to close it out. Cowboys still have @vikings (which I believe they lose), @ New York giants next week which is a toss up and still play lions, bucs at home then close out @ philly. If they lose to Vikings, giants and lose 1 more and Seattle wins out Seattle gets 1 seed. I don't believe that happens too many variables but I don't think it has too. Cowboys will run into some slippage just not enough. Seattle will get the bye, win at home first game. If it's at Seattle at Dallas, Dallas would be -2.5/3. Pound the Seahawks. I expect patriots in there but they are a lot more vulnerable than they were 2 years ago. Especially with the health of their receivers lingering. At that point I'd hedge the bet. But I feel right now is the time to strike on Seattle.

    Also next question I'd hit Vegas to place this bet. would I have a problem rolling up and trying to bet this with cash? If it were to pay out I'd have to fill out that tax form correct? If anyone with experience in that could help let me know thanks

  2. #2
    SEAHAWKHARRY
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    Yes to seattle ..im a homer though
    Yes to walking up with cash ok
    And yes you will have to fill out forms after winning 30k but congrats on future win

  3. #3
    BarstoolProphet
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    That is a crazy azz number. +600. Its early for me to do this. But I tend to do this when I am virtually guarentteed a playoff berth.

    And atm SEA is really the only team I can say will make playoffs. Forbid a complete meltdown.

    Then once in the playoffs. I hedge out ,for guaranteed money. You are working with 35k ,,thats a bit for me. But I tend to always walk away with + money.

    Only lose twice this past decade. I dont walk with FU money but money nontheless.

  4. #4
    Tmuston Beltics
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    Anyone betting +220 or +300 at this point is not smart (in my opinion).

  5. #5
    strictlypaypal
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    Quote Originally Posted by BarstoolProphet View Post
    That is a crazy azz number. +600. Its early for me to do this. But I tend to do this when I am virtually guarentteed a playoff berth.

    And atm SEA is really the only team I can say will make playoffs. Forbid a complete meltdown.

    Then once in the playoffs. I hedge out ,for guaranteed money. You are working with 35k ,,thats a bit for me. But I tend to always walk away with + money.

    Only lose twice this past decade. I dont walk with FU money but money nontheless.
    How many futures do you typically place? And around what week

  6. #6
    BarstoolProphet
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    generally just one,,but if the price is there ,,i will jump on 2.

    but i tend to do it around now till end of season . but on avg, week 13 (when you know they will win division..I never guess on wild card bs. You can lose before you even get started.

  7. #7
    POOLSIDE
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    Rather than betting 5k at one casino, try 1k at five casinos (preferably not affiliated aka all MGM casinos etc) so you can avoid any tax paperwork

  8. #8
    strictlypaypal
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    Alright guys I'm placing this bet today wish me luck. I decided to just go with my bookie at +550 odds.

    Ill post proof later when the bet is activated.

    Fyi gronk is out, gonna have surgery on his back.

  9. #9
    freeVICK
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    At what amount do sportsbooks make you fill out tax forms?

  10. #10
    strictlypaypal
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    alright its in guys. god damn cowboys have been getting lucky, can't wait to see if Seattle gets them in the playoffs. they all but locked in the 1 seed so well see how it plays out

  11. #11
    strictlypaypal
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    Fail
    Last edited by strictlypaypal; 12-02-16 at 12:26 PM.

  12. #12
    strictlypaypal
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    Here we go

  13. #13
    PorkChop
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    Vikings win NFC 30/1.


    Sounds f'n nuts right now, but it's how Im gonna have make a shit load of money god willing 1/22/17.


    BOL in whatever you choose pal.

    Vegas raking in those Dallas tickets right now, will be one and done in playoffs. Easy money for them.

  14. #14
    Barnes & Whine
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    That's the best odds on Vikings all year. Won't get any better than that Pork!!

  15. #15
    strictlypaypal
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    i was looking at baltimore at +3800 odds right now sitting atop of the division but god damn they have a crazy schedule to end the season.. i don't see how pitt doesn't clinch it

  16. #16
    strictlypaypal
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    Seattle right on que with the win tonight. Egg laid last week at Tampa irrelevant. When prosise comes back this offense is going to be something else.

    Very good chance they win out, pounding them next week @ GB

  17. #17
    POOLSIDE
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    I liked this bet at the time, but acting like you feel better about it after tonight's game is absurd. Earl Thomas is done for the year. That's an unfillable hole. Wouldn't shock me if their odds go up.

  18. #18
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    Guarantee you their odds go down tomorrow when they come out. I actually feel just as good. Thomas isn't out for the year Carroll dismissed that and said he could be back but no timetable. Thomas is a remarkable player but anybody will tell you Kam chancellor is the heart and soul of that defense. This defense is still remarkable without him. And I heard it was a fracture who knows he might be back soon.

    Either way way doesn't change their position, if they lose at Green Bay chances are they win the last 3 games of the season pretty easily and win the divisional round in the playoffs at home. Then go from there to see if cowboys aren't one and done which id still feel extremely confident fading the cowboys in that spot.

    Biggest problem is the O-line but the Center just came back today and they looked better. Wilson has incredible weapons as well and looks way better with Rawls going. Can't imagine when prosise comes back

  19. #19
    strictlypaypal
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    Don't know about vegas but my book now has odds down to +450. Cowboys still at +300. The world will soon know

  20. #20
    shocka1212
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    Steelers, Giants, Seahawks are the only ones I'd throw money on at this point.

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