1. #1
    a4u2fear
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    Patriots vs Bills

    Bills fan here, as we all know, the Patriots own most of the league and most certainly own the Buffalo Bills (when Tom is playing).

    I'm extremely confident in them Sunday, and I'm laying big money on NE ML in teasers and straight up. While I still think they cover the number, the weather might be poor and 6.5 is a lot on the road.

    So, reasoning:
    Patriots beat Buffalo in Buffalo 40-32 last year. This game was much more lopsided than the numbers show. The Pats took a 37-13 lead before the Bills scored the remainder of their points in the 4Q in garbage time. Key note, Bills and Pats both healthy for this one (including Dion Lewis who was killing it at RB at the time in the receiving game). Patriots did any and everything to the Bills D in this game.

    Patriots beat Buffalo 20-13 in NE. Gronk played but was most definitely hobbled, Dion Lewis and Edelman were out. The Bills definitely got to Tom in this one and frustrated him, but it was mostly due to the fact that Edelman and Lewis were out, Gronk was a non-factor due to his injury, and NE's center was also out of the lineup. Still, they got the job done.

    NE's offense is healthy and is awesome as usual. James White is filling in very nicely in the role Dion Lewis played last year as a 3rd down and RB/receiver.

    The Bills are really banged up on offense. Watkins is out, which hasn't matter much so far because of their running game, but when you realize the Pats are going to score 30+ on the Bills, they will certainly be able to throw it. It doesn't help Mccoy is hobbled. Gillislee is good, but he's no Mccoy. The Bills 2nd WR, Robert Woods, is working through an ankle injury, and while he might play, he's at best a slot WR or a 3WR on most teams. Bills 3WR Marquise Goodwin is on concussion protocol, and even if he plays, he's only a deep threat and even then rarely catches balls. So while it's likely the Bills will be on their 2nd RB and 4-5WR possibly, it spells trouble in a game they really need to score points and throw the ball.

    There's a reason Taylor doesn't throw much, he's not that good at it. Most of his yardage in games comes from 1-2 deep balls.

    I don't need to give many reasons why Brady will be able to throw on the Bills, but Keenum (271) and Fitz (374) didn't have trouble, and Kapernick was playing well up until halftime vs them. Ajayi just gashed them for 200+ yards. One of many reasons why, the Bills best safety Aaron Williams got knocked out by Landry. He's unlikely to play and makes the bills secondary extremely vulnerable.

    Revenge factor for Bill = yes. He hates Rex, and him and Brady will run the score up and not take it easy in any way.

    Marcel Dareus will be back to help the D-line but he's played in many games in this series over the years and while he's very good, it won't matter because Brady will have the ball out before the rush gets there; he almost always does.

    Pats ML BIG
    Pats in teasers, yes yes yes
    Pats -6.5 a little bit less

    and I like win/wins, Pats win, me win $, Bills win, then me happy
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 2 times . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: aston, and Stackzilla

  2. #2
    Roscoe_Word
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    That was a good write-up. Can't argue with those points. Here in Boston (at least in my neighborhood) we're always pessimistic. We envision Patriot defenders having Tyrod Taylor in their grasp, and somehow he gets away, turns the corner for about 40 yards.

    Some think this is the best Bills team since the "Kelly" era. Big game...GL, brother!

  3. #3
    DrunkHorseplayer
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    I agree with you. I'm going to pound the Patriots; I'm trying to get a 6 but if I have to, I'll settle for 6.5.

  4. #4
    jjgold
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    That line down to -6 at some places

  5. #5
    Bostongambler
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roscoe_Word View Post
    That was a good write-up. Can't argue with those points. Here in Boston (at least in my neighborhood) we're always pessimistic. We envision Patriot defenders having Tyrod Taylor in their grasp, and somehow he gets away, turns the corner for about 40 yards.

    Some think this is the best Bills team since the "Kelly" era. Big game...GL, brother!

    pats should roll roscoe . Where are you from?

  6. #6
    grease lightnin
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    I wonder what Belichick thinks of Rex Ryan and his brother coaching together. I bet he wants to pound the fukk out of those two clowns.

  7. #7
    MoonPond
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    Tyrod Taylor adds a volatility factor to games.

    Avoid, avoid, avoid.

  8. #8
    grease lightnin
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    Quote Originally Posted by MoonPond View Post
    Tyrod Taylor adds a volatility factor to games.

    Avoid, avoid, avoid.
    So you don't bet bills games ever because of Tyrod Taylor?

  9. #9
    rollie_t651
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    Tom Brady is A on a mission. Patriots cover.

  10. #10
    unusialsusp5
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    any excuse to justify betting a road favorite and bettors will try to rationalize it. bills will cover this easily.

  11. #11
    grease lightnin
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roscoe_Word View Post
    Some think this is the best Bills team since the "Kelly" era. Big game...GL, brother!
    Bills haven't made the playoffs since 1999. Lol

  12. #12
    Grivas_Digeni
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    Quote Originally Posted by unusialsusp5 View Post
    any excuse to justify betting a road favorite and bettors will try to rationalize it. bills will cover this easily.
    Ever heard of this thing called 'power rankings'? Why would the Bills cover against any top 5 team in the league, let alone the single best team?

  13. #13
    a4u2fear
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    Quote Originally Posted by unusialsusp5 View Post
    any excuse to justify betting a road favorite and bettors will try to rationalize it. bills will cover this easily.
    Did you read anything I wrote? What are your justifications?

  14. #14
    grease lightnin
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    Quote Originally Posted by a4u2fear View Post
    Did you read anything I wrote? What are your justifications?
    Home dogs always cover?

  15. #15
    triplecrown333
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    betting against the pats is just dumb, they been proving it for like 5 years, if your goal is money ,dont bet against them, but if feeling smart betting against them is your goal, go for it...

  16. #16
    gauchojake
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    Bills are a different team without McCoy at 100%.

  17. #17
    Roscoe_Word
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bostongambler View Post
    pats should roll roscoe . Where are you from?
    Probably within "shouting distance" BG. About 5 minuets from downtown.

    Remember a few years ago PATS lost at BUFF by 36!

    Rematch at Foxborough: PATS by 36!

    Only thing this rematch is at BUFF, and I've seen what buff did to a pretty good ARIZ team at (is it still) Orchard Park.

    GL with your bets, brother!

  18. #18
    DrunkHorseplayer
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    That line down to -6 at some places
    Now -6 everywhere; looking for a 5.5 or maybe even a 5.

  19. #19
    44 Mag
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roscoe_Word View Post
    Probably within "shouting distance" BG. About 5 minuets from downtown.

    Remember a few years ago PATS lost at BUFF by 36!

    Rematch at Foxborough: PATS by 36!

    Only thing this rematch is at BUFF, and I've seen what buff did to a pretty good ARIZ team at (is it still) Orchard Park.

    GL with your bets, brother!
    Wrong, it was Buffalo 31-0 in BUffalo------> 5 days after the Lawyer Milloy trade. Last game of the year pat's won, 31-0. Odd.... LOL.

  20. #20
    Roscoe_Word
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    Quote Originally Posted by 44 Mag View Post
    Wrong, it was Buffalo 31-0 in BUffalo------> 5 days after the Lawyer Milloy trade. Last game of the year pat's won, 31-0. Odd.... LOL.
    Good memory Mag!

  21. #21
    44 Mag
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roscoe_Word View Post
    Good memory Mag!
    Thanks, and it was way back in 2003. BOL in your wager, AND I agree with you !!!!!!!

  22. #22
    biggie12
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrunkHorseplayer View Post
    Now -6 everywhere; looking for a 5.5 or maybe even a 5.
    Perosnally dont think number will move beyond 6 but ive been wrong more then once

  23. #23
    jazzyj7
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    Patriots or Vikings wont cover. They both might win the game but atleast one of those teams will fail to cover. Both of those lines look a little fishy.
    Last edited by jazzyj7; 10-27-16 at 04:15 PM.

  24. #24
    DrunkHorseplayer
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    Looks like -5.5 is the play; Pats should roll.

  25. #25
    Grivas_Digeni
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    Quote Originally Posted by gauchojake View Post
    Bills are a different team without McCoy at 100%.
    He's maybe worth 0.5 pts to the spread (or rather he at 100% makes them half a point better compared to what he's been last few games)... but more importantly the Bills have played a dream schedule and are a fraud, which started to show last game and will continue.

    My guess is they lose by 30-40 combined points in weeks 9-10.

  26. #26
    Time is Money
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roscoe_Word View Post
    Probably within "shouting distance" BG. About 5 minuets from downtown.

    Remember a few years ago PATS lost at BUFF by 36!

    Rematch at Foxborough: PATS by 36!

    Only thing this rematch is at BUFF, and I've seen what buff did to a pretty good ARIZ team at (is it still) Orchard Park.

    GL with your bets, brother!
    AZ played that game at 1pm EST, west coast teams playing in that time slot historically struggle. wasn't anything unexpected.

    Bills have been the definition of inconsistent all season, ride the Pats ATS until they fail to cover.

  27. #27
    Grivas_Digeni
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    If 'inconsistent' means losing to every top-half team with no cluster injuries and better than 3rd string quarterback, I concur.

  28. #28
    Roscoe_Word
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    Line Update: PATS down from -6 to -5.5 @ BetOnline.

  29. #29
    jjgold
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    The line suspicious

  30. #30
    Roscoe_Word
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    89% of tickets from some Caribbean books on the PATS. Has no bearing on whether they'll cover or not, but some bettors don't like being on a side where almost everyone else is also on it. I'm passin.

  31. #31
    DwightShrute
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    Pats 1H
    Pats Game


    Last time they played in NE in week 4, with no Brady and Gronk was still limping, the Bills shut them out and Billacheat didn't talk to his players for days. Sunday, the Bills' No.1 RB is Reggie Kardashian LOL.

    Pats 35 Bills 13

  32. #32
    Roscoe_Word
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    Quote Originally Posted by DwightShrute View Post
    Pats 1H
    Pats Game


    Last time they played in NE in week 4, with no Brady and Gronk was still limping, the Bills shut them out and Billacheat didn't talk to his players for days. Sunday, the Bills' No.1 RB is Reggie Kardashian LOL.

    Pats 35 Bills 13
    LOL!......GL, brother....HUGE GAME!!

  33. #33
    Philmill
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    The line suspicious
    vegas trap for bills money

  34. #34
    KSmooth4U
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    Everybody said that last week...
    "Why is NE only favored by 7 against Pittsburgh?"

    And look what happened... NE covers easy here

  35. #35
    Slipknot26
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    The Pats are an ass whipping machine in Regular Season Revenge games in the same season, usually easily win by 2 TD's +
    I'll look up exactly but no way I'd play Bills with them shutting out New England at home while Brady was banging his wife.
    It's payback time
    2014 Miami -Revenge 41-13

    2011 Buffalo - Revenge 49-21

    2010 NY Jets - Revenge 45-3

    2009 Jets - Revenge 31-14

    2008 - Miami Revenge 48-28

    Needless to say they don't lose many Regular Season games but when they do , it doesn't turn out good come the next matchup.
    As you see , don't piss Belichick off
    Pats 34 - 17

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