Thanks, Just checked in to post that very thing :P
GB -7, 2.00 (Pinnacle)
Aaron Rodgers OVER 265.5 Passing Yds, 1.87 (Sportsbet)
Eddy Lacy UNDER 65.5 Rushing Yds, 1.87 (Sportsbet)
Feels like an Aaron Rodgers wins this game in the air feel sort of game to me, at home, off a bye after a rough start. I always worry taking on the Giants with considerable points especially considering Eli can score against flaky defenses but Rodgers has no excuses not to perform with his receiving corps here and keeping up with the Vikings for the NFC North lead.
ATL +6, 1.952 Feel like locking this in early, no way it stays this big with all the favouritism they are getting. Seems like they are the 2015 Panthers, except offensively they're clicking. And the defense does the job. And the 2015 Panthers are fumbling and stumbling to losses like the Falcons were last year. The next thing you know they are losing to the Saints lol.
DEN/SD o45.5, 2.04 Concerns about Lynch if he plays (seems likely Siemien will be back) even so, the Chargers at home behind Rivers seems like there will be a fireworks display with a desperate team. Always seems to be weird stuff going on with division games but as suspect as this line looks because of Denver's capabilities I can see points on both sides and don't discount the thought of a Defensive/Special Teams TD with the way this Chargers team likes to choke away leads but don't count on it. Fumbles and INT's?? Possibly.
Taking this before it jumps up (IMO) on game day
Stake: 2u play
BUF -7.5, 1.952 Always a tough ask backing a team by the hook with a TD especially Buffalo, but I think the 49ers regress under Kaepernick. Buffalo has been alright on the ground so far and against the worst rushing team they'll continue that success this week. The defense gets back DT Dareus and the offense seems to have found some range with three straight wins.
Normally would look the other way with the public favouring Buffalo but I think the public have got this one right. San Francisco are desperate to win but there are still red flags all over this team. It doesn't really suggest to me they'll turn it around on Sunday.
Roethlisberger after two big games would ideally like to back that again against this Dolphins defense. Get the half a point at pinnacle if you want but ill play it safe here. Worried that Tannehill gets the offense going after a few struggles (just in general this year) but I really think Benny can get that 5-6 TD game going here, and convert well in the red zone.
Screw it, if they lost I might as well be burned by them. They were bad against Detroit, and maybe a bit unlucky but I don't think they'll be bad against Washington. I dont think Washington were as good as they may have led the public to believe against Baltimore and as we saw against Dallas and Pittsburgh, a good QB can put points on them. think the public have this one right.
CAR -3, 2.11 With Cam Newton expected to be back this week and the Panthers in a must win game, I'm expecting them to do so with a fresh Cam Newton keeping Drew Brees and the Saints offense at bay.
CIN +8.5, 1.85 (TAB) Way too much spread love for the Patriots here, will go the other way. Can't see Dalton being bad for back to back weeks, even on the road against a strong home team.
OAK +1.5, 1.97 Good start to them this year in first place, against the Chiefs at home? Don't mind it.
That'll be it for me on the early Sunday card, other plays are all Pinnacle, and all 1u
Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons Handicap: Green Bay Packers +3, 1.952
Moneyline: Green Bay Packers, 2.36
Player Props: Aaron Rodgers over 275.5 passing yds (William Hill)
Stake: 1u each
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos Handicap: San Diego Chargers +4, 1.934
Stake: 1u play
As much as I hate backing the same team on the spread in Division games I've def seen just enough improvement from the Chargers to think they can keep up and perhaps push for a Wildcard. In that beasting division every win is a must now. With Oakland and Kansas winning.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys Handicap: Dallas Cowboys -5, 1.961 on Pinnacle
Player Props: Ezekiel Elliot over 102.5 rushing yds, 1.87 on Sportsbet
Player Props: Ezekiel Elliot anytime TD scorer, 1.80 on Sportsbet
Player Props: Dak Prescott over 15.5 rushing yds, 1.87 on Sportsbet
Stake: 1u plays each
As much as I hate backing an NFC East favourite, Philadelphia have too many important outs, mostly notably Lane Johnson and and Logan. Someone else is going to have to step up if they are going to stop the Dallas run.
Altanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccs
Handicap: Atlanta Falcons, 1.97 on Pinnacle
Half/Full: Atlanta Falcons/Atlanta Falcons, 2.05 on William Hill
Stake: 1u each
freaking suckers trap on the vikes, always too good to be true when it's a small line, especially a divisional game
DET +6.5, 1.952 on Pinnacle - Stake: 1u play
It seems like a recipe for dog to cover with the Vikings being out of form, and the Offensive Line letting QB Sam Bradford down, and despite the Lions woes and injury issues in a divisional rival spot I think they can keep this game close. Stafford is definately the more in form Qb at the moment out of the two and I think the loss to the Texans is a one off for the Lions offense. Bradford and the Vikings will also be playing under a new offensive co-ordinator after the resignation of Norv Turner. Looking to see them cover here against the Vikings.
PHI +2.5, 2.11 on Pinnacle - Stake: 2u play PHI ML, 2.36 on Pinnacle - Stake: 1u play
Every divisional matchup in the NFC East seems to be a big opportunity to leapfrog the competition one spot closer to the lead or the Wildcard spot. This match will be no different with the Giants coming off a bye but 1-1 in division games and the Eagles being 0-2 after a tough loss in Dallas.
I still think the Eagles are the better team here, Doug Pederson was on the hotseat with some of their 4Q and is without a doubt aiming to turn it around against the Giants who have shown grittyness in their wins but do not look like a legitamate threat.
That and I normally like to take the dog in NFC East matches regardless.
Mark Ingram OVER 56.5 Rushing yards, 1.87 on William Hill - Stake: 1u
The 49ers atrocious rushing defensive woes continues, and I don't mind backing most teams to run through them even those ones who are less then spectacular and have more pass happy QBs. I'm not concerned Ingram was benched against Seattle for some fumbling issues as I still think he will get the reps in this game to go over this total. But comparing defenses of those two I also dont think the 49ers will 'force' fumbles the way other teams can at times.
CLE TT u20.5 points, 1.847 on Pinnacle - Stake: 1u
Cleveland put up good points against the Jets but the Jets passing defense has been average. The Cowboys backs looks like they can do a better job stopping the Browns who I don't see putting up good offensive games back to back. They kept Rodgers and Dalton below to low scoring and have done a good job keeping defense to below 23 pts.
I think Dak and the offense can manage the clock and keep Clevelands offense off the field giving them average field position.
Thanks, was a bit concerned about the garbage TD but apart from the first drive Cleveland haven't looked like doing much so let's hope it stays that way
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