1. #1
    bennyprofane
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    2016 NFL Picks

    261 Denver +1 1/2 (5dimes)

    The Bears look like a team that's a respectable mess. They have a coach who is competent, but not spectacular, and the players don't look like they've fully bought into his methodology. In watching their games last year, they always seemed to play a completely reactive game, never anticipating what was about happen next. Jay Cutler was his usual self last year, putting up somewhat respectable stats without winning any big games. Yards passing can be an extremely deceptive statistic since quarterbacks tend to throw more when the team is losing. Overall, they're a team that knows they won't be able to compete with Green Bay and Minnesota this year, and it's hard to picture them being enthusiastic enough to play well.
    Denver is moving in a completely different direction. They're underrated by the market because of uncertainty at quarterback. Anyone who watched their games last year (both Manning and Osweiler starts) knows that they won despite their quarterback play, not because of it. They ran the ball, didn't turn it over, and play great defense and special teams. A team that good at fundamentals will always be better than the sum of its parts. As for this game, Lynch probably won't be asked to do anything other than hand the ball off and make short passes. Sanchez and Siemian should be able to move the ball against the backups on defense for the Bears.
    Denver has at least a slight edge in every phase of this game and should win here.

  2. #2
    bennyprofane
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    258 Baltimore +2 (5dimes)
    No lofty thinking on this one. It's practically impossible not to bet a home underdog in the preseason, and Carolina has nothing to play for.

  3. #3
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    266 Lions-Steelers under 35
    Two coaches who are completely apathetic about preseason face each other in this game. Given their respective histories, it's hard to imagine anything interesting happening in this game.

  4. #4
    bennyprofane
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    Rams +2 (pinnacle)

  5. #5
    bennyprofane
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    262 49ers -1 1/2 (-105) pinnacle
    Following the steam and betting the Niners here. These are two franchises in two very different places. The Packers are flying under the radar and capable of making another deep playoff run. San Fran is in the early stages of rebuilding and doesn't really have much on either side.
    Touts love to sell the angle of weaker teams "needing to win" certain preseason games, but that's exactly what this looks like. Doubt Green Bay is motivated at all for a cross country flight to play a weak team, and they're probably going to hide their best ideas for the regular season.

  6. #6
    bennyprofane
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    Jets +1 (-106) pinnacle

  7. #7
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    Broncos +3

  8. #8
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    482 49ers +3 (-120)

  9. #9
    bennyprofane
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    Bills -1 (-106) pinnacle

  10. #10
    bennyprofane
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    I like the Rams at +7 in a huge upset. (I still keep wanting to type "St. Louis" every time I mention them. Wonder how long it'll take before that passes.
    The Rams are a mess. I watched every episode of the Hard Knocks series this year, and was completely unimpressed. I know I'm just an observer, but Jeff Fisher and his staff really don't seem like they know what they're doing, in just about every way. I understand they only discussed important things when the cameras weren't rolling, but they still give off a vibe of people who got where they have by being confident and assertive not by being competent. I could list the problems with their roster, but anyone who watched the 49ers game knows exactly what they were. The Rams didn't just lose to the worst team in the NFL, they got embarrassed by the worst team in the NFL. Now they have a short week to get ready for the Seahawks.
    I still think the Rams come up big here. It's the first home game in LA, and I don't buy any of that "The league will tell the referees to let the Rams win so that the fans will keep coming back" nonsense that touts and square forum posters believe in. But they should have a slightly increased hfa that isn't necessarily factored into the line. Added to this is the notion that 0-1 teams always seem to play better than 1-0 teams. The Seahawks won a game they had no business winning (Dolphin receiver dropping one of the easiest td passes ever stands out as particularly cringeworthy), and have to think they'll take it for granted they'll win here.
    Games are always won and lost during the week in practice, so I have to think that the Rams will be the more motivated team. It's not a great bet, but it is a good bet, and that's the best you can ever do with NFL sides.

    Thread record 6-3 (+2.79 units)

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