[Snowball]

Let these numbers sink in.
I'm telling you, At Gillette after a bye week, the Patriots can put up 23 points against any NFL
defense that has ever existed, including Pro Bowl/All Star.

4. The magic number against the Chiefs is 23: When his opponents score 23 or more points, Alex Smith is 3-41-1 over the course of his career, including the postseason. Since 2000 including the postseason, the Patriots are 171-14 when scoring 23 or more points. Also, since 2001 including the postseason, the Patriots are 158-16 when holding their opponents to 23 points or less.

[DavieVegas]

Yes with a healthy patriots team. No one is healthy and your patriots bet goes to dust if gronk,edleman or Brady gets hurt.

[16kredit]

Not as if Chiefs are all around healthy. Justin Houston didnt play great last week and their only worthy deep threat is not playing OR if ends up on the field way less than 90%

[Barnes & Whine]

The line IS there to mess with your head. It is not a predictive indicator.
If the line was a predictive indicator, sports betting would be easy.
The only function of the line is to monetarily arrange wagers placed on each side
proportionately so the vig is maintained as a profit balance regardless of
dollar action carried.

Very well said.

Every local radio host and square and rookie seems to think like JayDr3am I guess since one team is favored by 5 points that means VEGAS thinks they are 5 points the better team on that game...huh huh huh!! He disputes your explanation of how the lines are made and doesn't get that its more about balancing the action and maintaining the profit from the juice just as you explained.

[Goat Milk]

Game will be rigged. I can tell with that 4.5- movement.

Spoken like a true fool

[Barnes & Whine]

Yes with a healthy patriots team. No one is healthy and your patriots bet goes to dust if gronk,edleman or Brady gets hurt.

Tommy is a legend. Alex Smith is a dork. I'll take my chances.

[KidSeoul]

actually it went nowhere... damn you've been betting longer than ive personally been alive and youre going to sit here and tell me that line isn't a predictive indicator? .. wow.

Jay - if you don't know why a line is created, how do you bet on sports? More importantly, how do you post on a forum as if you know what you're talking about but it's painfully obvious you don't know how to even do your due diligence and research before making yourself sound quite ignorant. Go google "purpose of point spreads" and do a little reading before you continue to sound like a schmuck.

[loveofsports]

I'm new to sports but I am going to guess that the spread is put in place more for a psychological affect, I am guessing that the line is there not as an indicator but as a predictive guess on how to get the public to have as close to 50% on both sides so this way the book makes money on the vig? Is this correct?

[marley33]

The difference in this game will be Alex Smiths ability to run the ball on zone reads and when he's being pressured. The Patriots are no match for this team that's on a roll. The train cannot be stopped right now. Andy Reid knows how to beat Bill. Crushed them last year at Arrowhead and this game will be no different. Kansas City 31-20

[pavyracer]

- Patriots are very intimidating at home
- Patriots coach just as good as KC
- Patriots WR Edelman just said he's ready to go "full throttle"
- Patriots TE Gronk, WR Amendola, White, LaFell, Martin, Chandler all ok
- Edelman value as decoy KC backfield must cover even if not 100%
- T Sebastian Vollmer participated in practice
- Brandon Bolden and veteran Steven Jackson complimentary RB styles
- KC already booked their road playoff win, season a success
- KC WR Maclin their biggest long threat has serious ankle problem
- Patriots had the bye week
- Cold but clear forecast
- Late afternoon start 4:35 EST = rowdier fans

New England Patriots -5 (-110)
100 times or higher ($500+)

If everyone is healthy and good to go then why the line is only -4.5? You think books like to give money away? Was Patriots ever -4.5 in regular season?

[Husker36]

Who is Alex Smith going to throw to?

[proline1]

Anybody play PROPS Lotery here?

[Snowball]

If everyone is healthy and good to go then why the line is only -4.5? You think books like to give money away? Was Patriots ever -4.5 in regular season?

For the reasons exemplified in this thread.
Look at how many posters gave me flack on this pick.
Look at how some don't understand the function of a line.
Pavy, for a long timer to say "you think books like to give money away"
is beneath you. The books can't help it if people are willing to shell on
Chiefs in this game.
Watch the late action. That's when runners will make bets in Vegas for
their street bookies to offset any overweight they need to pass on.
It could result in LM. So could any late on-site whales that waited
because they didn't want to show their hands. Adios !

[SportsLockPicks]

Pats win convincingly, 2 weeks rest, 2 weeks to prep, game is in Foxboro. No one that says they are taking KC +5 isn't second guessing themselves. All the pundits will be talking about how NE is the team to beat after this victory of 10+ points.

[dmncnlou]

The fact that you would even mention this just shows how painfully stupid you are. Might as well just lay down and rot while you're at it you worthless cuck.

Fuk you and your aids infested mother. Fuk boy. The game will be close dik head.

[Viperpiper]

"Andy Reid knows how to beat BB?"

Are u dumb?.. 1-4

[Causey842]

Drink that coolaid today bro. Only way Pats lose is if KC wins big in special teams. You will see the old Patriots today... There will be no feature of Steven Jackson or Bolden this week. I like Pats -3 1st half a lot.. I think they come out hungry.

[Delicious]

everyone trying to be a hero

every game has the exact same probability of winning and losing as far as the spread

The spread is more market perception than strickly probability

[Sabear]

everyone trying to be a hero

every game has the exact same probability of winning and losing as far as the spread

Not true

[Time is Money]

Drink that coolaid today bro. Only way Pats lose is if KC wins big in special teams. You will see the old Patriots today... There will be no feature of Steven Jackson or Bolden this week. I like Pats -3 1st half a lot.. I think they come out hungry.

Only thing I don't like about Pats 1H is they always defer and get ball 2H so technically you lose an extra possession

[Barnes & Whine]

Line is based on perception not win probability.

[Barnes & Whine]

I will Unleash the beast of Steven Jackson....

[Barnes & Whine]

Pats might run a lot in this one. Liking the under.

[DwightShrute]

THIS JUST IN: The Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is expected to start vs Denver Broncos Sunday. (via Sal Paolantonio)

[Snowball]

that late lm.

[KnockEmDown]

For the reasons exemplified in this thread.
Look at how many posters gave me flack on this pick.
Look at how some don't understand the function of a line.
Pavy, for a long timer to say "you think books like to give money away"
is beneath you. The books can't help it if people are willing to shell on
Chiefs in this game.
Watch the late action. That's when runners will make bets in Vegas for
their street bookies to offset any overweight they need to pass on.
It could result in LM. So could any late on-site whales that waited
because they didn't want to show their hands. Adios !

some people just don't get it snowball. line movement on -5.5 pats was about +105 this morning and now floating around -116 (just in last 30 mins). BoL today

[Snowball]

[pimike]

Nice call!!! I too KC 2nd half to hit that as well.

Good job Snowy!

[jb41]

So can any of the experts give an approximate guess on what the spread will be next week assuming it's NE going to Denver? Thanks a lot.

[JayDr3am]

So can any of the experts give an approximate guess on what the spread will be next week assuming it's NE going to Denver? Thanks a lot.

lmao im far from a expert... if Denver wins, i think itll depend on how bad Denver beats'em too.. but the game should be a -2.5 NE wouldn't be surprised if its at PK or NE -1

[JayDr3am]

Jay - if you don't know why a line is created, how do you bet on sports? More importantly, how do you post on a forum as if you know what you're talking about but it's painfully obvious you don't know how to even do your due diligence and research before making yourself sound quite ignorant. Go google "purpose of point spreads" and do a little reading before you continue to sound like a schmuck.

i book tickets on sports perfectly fine, and was quite successful this NFL season thanks for asking. you can actually check my thread if youd like, its pretty cool. but your're getting something misconstrued guy.. predictive indicator as in what team holds what spread and should that favorited team be laying that amount...

not an indicator saying the spread will automatically determine the outcome of the game.. .. if i think a team is laying too many points that's not worthy of laying that many points, im going to predict that the underdog has a chance of covering the spread. im not saying the game will be necessarily seperated perfectly by the spread the oddmakers had listed.. nor am i saying count on the oddmakers to be right all/half/or even a quarter of the time.. but if i simply think a team is laying too many points, im going to Predict that the underdog has a shot at covering or winning outright.. gambling is all a big Prediction.

[navyblue81]

Good call. I had NE as well BIG. If you had KC, you simply didnt' do your homework. For example, this just in....Edelman was BACk. And the Patriots are a much different team when Edelman is in the lineup and when he's not. So if you had KC, shame on you for not doing your HW. I thought this game was as easy a bet as you're going to find in the playoffs. Kudos to KC for scoring a late TD to at least make me sweat just a tad.

Also, loving Denver tomorrow. Another team that is going to take big advantage of the week off vs. a team who is really fighting the injury bug. Big Ben has gutted out injuries before, but most of those injuries were leg injuries. Fighting a shoulder injury is a MUCH different animal. Also think you're going to see Manning look sharp against a sketchy Steelers secondary.

[jjgold]

I like the work of posters this week

Many winners

[JameisBrady]

Good call. I had NE as well BIG. If you had KC, you simply didnt' do your homework. For example, this just in....Edelman was BACk. And the Patriots are a much different team when Edelman is in the lineup and when he's not. So if you had KC, shame on you for not doing your HW. I thought this game was as easy a bet as you're going to find in the playoffs. Kudos to KC for scoring a late TD to at least make me sweat just a tad.

Also, loving Denver tomorrow. Another team that is going to take big advantage of the week off vs. a team who is really fighting the injury bug. Big Ben has gutted out injuries before, but most of those injuries were leg injuries. Fighting a shoulder injury is a MUCH different animal. Also think you're going to see Manning look sharp against a sketchy Steelers secondary.

Well said. Only idiots bet the Chiefs today.

[POOLSIDE]

Only thing I don't like about Pats 1H is they always defer and get ball 2H so technically you lose an extra possession

You can't be serious. Please tell me you're not serious.