1. 09-16-15 08:16 PM #1
    JMon
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    NFL road dog off a big win as a dog

    I love researching situations. I'm a spot player and contrarian at heart so bear with me. I think the majority would assume to play a 'dog off a big win as a dog'! Reasoning...if they won as dog, huge in their previous game and now I'm getting points in their next game against an opt that lost their previous game; it seems like a lock?

    So how do road dogs fair after a big margin win as a dog against an oppt that lost their previous game?
    Last edited by JMon; 09-16-15 at 08:19 PM.
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  2. 09-16-15 08:28 PM #2
    seaborneq
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    Which dog from week 1 are you talking about getting points this week?
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  3. 09-16-15 08:29 PM #3
    seaborneq
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    Niners, Falcons or Titans?
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  4. 09-16-15 08:34 PM #4
    Vegas39
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    Quote Originally Posted by seaborneq View Post
    Niners, Falcons or Titans?
    Titans favored
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  5. 09-16-15 08:38 PM #5
    seaborneq
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vegas39 View Post
    Titans favored
    The money is coming in on them then, because I thought I saw them getting +1.5 earlier.
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  6. 09-16-15 08:45 PM #6
    JMon
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    love this song...

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  7. 09-16-15 08:46 PM #7
    JMon
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    Quote Originally Posted by seaborneq View Post
    Which dog from week 1 are you talking about getting points this week?
    still researching..
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  8. 09-16-15 08:57 PM #8
    JMon
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    Dog off a dog win...not much there since '89...478-488-33 ATS! However what caught my eye the last couple of years... since 2013. 27-47-2 ATS!

    Why the trend?
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  9. 09-16-15 08:58 PM #9
    JMon
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  10. 09-16-15 09:09 PM #10
    Vegas39
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    Quote Originally Posted by seaborneq View Post
    The money is coming in on them then, because I thought I saw them getting +1.5 earlier.
    They are -1 most places now . Still +1 at heritage
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  11. 09-16-15 09:22 PM #11
    JMon
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    got it!

    road, pick to a dog, off a big dog win of margin>13...against an oppt off a loss of less than 14 (didn't get blown out)

    unique, no sample so beware.

    8-31-2 ATS since '89....hasn't happened since 2013 though! Only one team active to fade.... 50 pts to who can guess it!
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  12. 09-16-15 09:25 PM #12
    Vegas39
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
    got it!

    road, pick to a dog, off a big dog win of margin>13...against an oppt off a loss of less than 14 (didn't get blown out)

    unique, no sample so beware.

    8-31-2 ATS since '89....hasn't happened since 2013 though! Only one team active to fade.... 50 pts to who can guess it!
    Seattle
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  13. 09-16-15 09:25 PM #13
    JMon
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    Ave line +6.09 and ave score...team 15.1 - oppt 26.3...over FG difference
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  14. 09-16-15 09:27 PM #14
    blackHIPPY
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
    got it!

    road, pick to a dog, off a big dog win of margin>13...against an oppt off a loss of less than 14 (didn't get blown out)

    unique, no sample so beware.

    8-31-2 ATS since '89....hasn't happened since 2013 though! Only one team active to fade.... 50 pts to who can guess it!
    Steelers
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  15. 09-16-15 09:30 PM #15
    JMon
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vegas39 View Post
    Seattle

    lol...seattle was not a winner let alone a dog
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  16. 09-16-15 09:30 PM #16
    blackHIPPY
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    Fading 9ers right ?
    Points Awarded:

    JMon gave blackHIPPY 50 Betpoint(s) for this post.

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  17. 09-16-15 09:32 PM #17
    JMon
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackHIPPY View Post
    Steelers
    boom! I was looking for the team to fade but!
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  18. 09-16-15 09:34 PM #18
    blackHIPPY
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    I already bet them but this gave me a lot more confidence in my bet
    thanks lets cash it
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  19. 09-16-15 09:37 PM #19
    JMon
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    Name: Pitt.JPG Views: 748 Size: 14.2 KB
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  20. 09-16-15 09:41 PM #20
    JMon
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    If you look at non conference play is sharpens it up.

    While I'm putting small action them...please do not tail me and complain if it loses. Some plays lose. Bet responsible!
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  21. 09-16-15 09:42 PM #21
    jjgold
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    nobody every got rich betting trends

    some win and some lose

    different years mean different situations

    all random
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  22. 09-16-15 09:45 PM #22
    blackHIPPY
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    might i add

    steelers have had 9 days to prepare for this game while 9ers have only had 4
    we have a west coast team traveling east for an early start, like 9 am their time
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  23. 09-16-15 09:46 PM #23
    DrunkHorseplayer
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
    Dog off a dog win...not much there since '89...478-488-33 ATS! However what caught my eye the last couple of years... since 2013. 27-47-2 ATS! Why the trend?
    Statistical variance; most trends mean nothing.
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  24. 09-23-15 06:04 PM #24
    JMon
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
    got it!

    road, pick to a dog, off a big dog win of margin>13...against an oppt off a loss of less than 14 (didn't get blown out)

    unique, no sample so beware.

    8-31-2 ATS since '89....hasn't happened since 2013 though! Only one team active to fade.... 50 pts to who can guess it!
    This spot is active fading the Skins. We all seen the beat down Pit gave the 49ers last week, regardless I'm laying off this game. Good luck for those that choose to play it.
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  25. 09-23-15 06:26 PM #25
    ChiLLx
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
    This spot is active fading the Skins. We all seen the beat down Pit gave the 49ers last week, regardless I'm laying off this game. Good luck for those that choose to play it.
    Gmen suck, but based on this trend it's them or no play.
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  26. 09-23-15 07:21 PM #26
    smitch124
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    That ahole the Prick actually has Wash +4 as one of his plays.
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  27. 09-23-15 07:28 PM #27
    JMon
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    Quote Originally Posted by smitch124 View Post
    That ahole the Prick actually has Wash +4 as one of his plays.
    Seen that! Hope this spot hits again for our sake!
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  28. 09-25-15 05:29 PM #28
    JMon
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    ugh...should have played it.

    nonetheless, this spot has cleaned up. Going to post another lesson
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  29. 09-25-15 06:00 PM #29
    POOLSIDE
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    Houston
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  30. 09-25-15 06:04 PM #30
    JMon
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    Quote Originally Posted by POOLSIDE View Post
    Houston
    Houston?
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  31. 09-25-15 06:06 PM #31
    POOLSIDE
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    Yup. Home favorite coming off a road loss playing against a team who just won straight up as a big dog. Houston is the play.
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  32. 09-25-15 06:16 PM #32
    JMon
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    Quote Originally Posted by POOLSIDE View Post
    Yup. Home favorite coming off a road loss playing against a team who just won straight up as a big dog. Houston is the play.
    wow..just ran it. very nice! What is the "big dog" line? Margin?
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  33. 09-25-15 07:54 PM #33
    POOLSIDE
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
    wow..just ran it. very nice! What is the "big dog" line? Margin?
    Sorry! Move the word big. I'll fix it. Sorry for the confusion!

    Big home favorite coming off a road loss playing against a team who just won straight up as a dog. Houston is the play.

    In this case, let's call big >4
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  34. 09-25-15 08:03 PM #34
    ChiLLx
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    Just to be clear the play is supposed to be: Fade road dog, off a big dog win of margin greater than 13 ATS...against a home team off a loss of less than 14 points?
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  35. 09-25-15 09:13 PM #35
    POOLSIDE
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChiLLx View Post
    Just to be clear the play is supposed to be: Fade road dog, off a big dog win of margin greater than 13 ATS...against a home team off a loss of less than 14 points?
    That sounds about right, although I believe the home team having lost on the road is a perception factor. I'm not sure where the "loss of less than 14 points" came from though. Not saying it isn't, but I'm not aware of that stipulation being relevant.

    For reference, see Pittsburgh last week. Home favorite after losing @Pats, facing an SF squad who just won straight up as a dog.

    There were other helpful factors in that game that are, unfortunately, not present here. West coast team traveling east for a 10am game, and SF coming off a blowout Monday night victory (a trend that says take a look at Philly this week).
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