[mcgeezer1883]

I am restarting a thread I began 2 yrs ago that got alot of attention. Hope it gets as much following along as before

*disclaimer- I did not create this, nor am I an expert on why it works, so proceed with live bets at your own risk*
*************

Here is how it works ...

when a opening total crosses a number that can be divided by 7 or 10 to produce an whole number (meaning no decimals), then it becomes a key indicator on which side of the total you should play. This was created by a pro handicapper using some type of algorithm. These indicators work under the same premise of when an ATS line crosses 3 and 7, indicating which way you should lean.

This is for NFL only!

for example, total opens at 48.5 and crosses 49 to 49.5 .

49 / 7 =7

49.5 / 7 or 10 = 7.07 or 4.95

in this example, playing the under would be proper. Making your selection opposite of the line movement when it crosses one of the key numbers

Key numbers that can be divided by 7 or 10 to make a whole number = 30, 35, 40, 42, 49, 50, 56, 60, 63, 70,77

The reason numbers divisible by 7 or 10 are key is because these are the average number of point leads/consecutive scores on alternating possessions that normal teams make thoughout game progressions.

If the movement crosses two Key numbers (ex. Open at 43 and drops to 39.5) then it's a very strong indicator of making the play

****

4 games so far week 1 meet this criteria

Kc/hou open at 42.5
Now at 41
Crossed down past 42, so play is OVER

CAR/jax open at 44
Now at 41
Crossed down past 42, so play is OVER

Sea/StL open at 43.5
Now at 40.5
Crossed down past 42, so play is OVER

Den/bal open at 52
Now at 48.5
Crossed down past 50 and 49, so play is OVER

****these are the first 4 I can see this far....let's see how it pans out! Keep your eye out for further movement...NO/ARI is about to cross 49 upwards, if so under is the play

***As always, do your own due diligence and dont blindly make selections solely on the number - take into account matchup, weather, injuries, win/loss records, etc....I am simply posting all of the qualifying games to see what the final win/loss record is for this season.

[Willysmagic]

Thanks for sharing.

[mcgeezer1883]

2-2 so far, of course offset by a horrible zero offense game in Denver.

Will keep posting qualifying games for every week.

[Covy]

Have you backtested it?

If so, what results did you get?

[mcgeezer1883]

I have not, but I'd like to see the numbers to run it. It did really well in 2013 for me

[recon1]

Intresting

[lwindaily]

I like it, I will be watching the results

[mcgeezer1883]

I did not post it so we won't call it official, but CLE/NY started at 40.5 and dropped to 38.5 - play in that case was over and hit. I didnt watch it close enough to make it an official selection.

[TheMoneyShot]

Thanks for sharing. Keep us posted.

[mcgeezer1883]

***NEW SELECTION

Thursday game
KC/DEN
Open at 43
Has dropped to 41.5 at pinnacle, 5 dimes, and bookmaker.
Play is OVER based on model

As always, tread carefully due to Denver's offense playing terribly yesterday. But...I do like KC offense to move the ball effectively.

GL to all

[scubasteve]

Have you backtested it?

If so, what results did you get?

Took these "rules" & compared it to opening & closing lines (using SBR's opening totals since that's the easiest way I could think of to collect opening totals & Pinny's listed closing totals for those games) in 2013 & 2014

Since nothing in the post mentioned coming off a key number (such as opening at 42 and closing at 40.5), I broke the results down in separate groups (record out of parentheses is the record in non-Thursday games while the record in parentheses denotes the record on Thursday games since some people treat the short rest games differently when capping)

Total goes down past a key number once:
18-6 in 2013
4-9 in 2014

Total goes down past a key number twice:
0-3 in 2013 (1-0)
1-1 in 2014 (1-0)

Total goes up past a key number once:
12-20 in 2013
6-11 in 2014 (1-0)

Total goes up past a key number twice:
4-1 in 2013
1-2 in 2014

Total starts at a key number and goes down:
8-5 in 2013
8-7 in 2014

Total starts at a key number and goes up:
7-5-1 in 2013
7-2 in 2014

Altogether, 2013 gave a 49-40 record (55.06%) if you count the games that opened on a key number & moved off it & 2014 gave a 27-32 (45.76%) record if you count the games that opened on a key number & moved off it


Using SBR's listed opening totals (for consistency) & Pinny closing totals for Week 1 saw:
- GB/CHI, CAR/JAX, SEA/STL, KC/HOU go down past a key number once & that group went 3-1 when betting against the move
- BAL/DEN went down across a key number twice & that game went under (0-1)
- DAL/NYG started at a key number & went up past another key number & the game went over (0-1)
- CLE/NYJ opened at a key number & went down. That game was a winner for the over (1-0)


The only consistencies between both the 2013 & 2014 seasons were:
- Betting over in a game whose total goes past a key number once saw a 32-18 record (including yesterday), which is diametrically opposed to the suggestion (64.00% rate)
- If a total starts at a key number & goes down, then following the suggestion & betting over has a 17-12 record (including yesterday's Browns/Jets game), for a 58.62% clip
- If a total starts at a key number & goes up, then following the suggestion & betting the under has led to a 14-8-1 record (including yesterday's Giants/Cowboys game), for a 63.64% clip
- If you give any credence to a 3-game sample size, then following the suggested rules for Thursday night games has led to a 3-0 record

[mcgeezer1883]

I'm not advocating a play if the total starts at a key number. Only if it crosses it.

Ex- Open at 42.5, moves down to 41.5

[scubasteve]

I'm not advocating a play if the total starts at a key number. Only if it crosses it.

Ex- Open at 42.5, moves down to 41.5

Then your system produced a 34-30 record in 2013 & 12-23 record last year (3-2 yesterday, again based on SBR's opening totals for consistency)

[mcgeezer1883]

Just curious...how did you get all of the data for past years lines? I'd like to see it going back several years, maybe 5 or more.

Remember...I didn't create this, it just interests me greatly.

[etothep]

you can go here http://www.sportsbookreview.com/bett.../nfl-football/ & change the date to see some older lines

checked & it goes back to at least 2010 (at least for NFL spreads)

[mcgeezer1883]

Kc/DEN over 41.5 is a winner

Will be watching lines for additional qualifying plays

3-2 so far (would be 4-2 if I had officially posted the CLE/NY over which qualified)

[mcgeezer1883]

Only game currently on radar for qualification is MIA/JAX which opened at 41.5, if it crosses to 42.5, play is under...this is not official yet

[Dano85]

Hou/Car started 40.5 on Pinny down to 39.5 over is the play?

how long do you wait to track these before you make your bet? 1 hour before kickoff?

[mcgeezer1883]

Hou/Car started 40.5 on Pinny down to 39.5 over is the play?

how long do you wait to track these before you make your bet? 1 hour before kickoff?

I try to track the movement early and make decisions as soon as it crosses the key number to take advantage of preventing further movement the other way.

HOU/CAR does qualify, therefore the play is OVER...but I wouldn't suggest a wager here with two sputtering offenses. For tracking purposes only we will make it a play for this thread (but not officially advocated due to above)

[The Prick]

interestin theory there slick best keep secret in sports handicappin

am sure bookies run when they see u

[mcgeezer1883]

interestin theory there slick best keep secret in sports handicappin

am sure bookies run when they see u

Thank you for gracing me with your presence...now please eat shit and die

[Ra77er]

Things look really good from this angle, I'll keep an eye on it thanks for sharing.

[TheMoneyShot]

interestin theory there slick best keep secret in sports handicappin

am sure bookies run when they see u

Thank you for gracing me with your presence...now please eat shit and die

Prick Operations now closing their doors. Look out.



Give this guy a chance. He might have something in the works here.

[O]

[Dano85]

I try to track the movement early and make decisions as soon as it crosses the key number to take advantage of preventing further movement the other way.

HOU/CAR does qualify, therefore the play is OVER...but I wouldn't suggest a wager here with two sputtering offenses. For tracking purposes only we will make it a play for this thread (but not officially advocated due to above)

unofficial win

[mcgeezer1883]

unofficial win

Read the quote again...I specifically said it's a play for tracking this method...I didn't suggest a wager based on my own personal analysis which has nothing to do with the thread.

Games I have endorsed based on this method thus far are 5-2, and would be 6-2 of I hadn't forgot to make CLE/NY official

[mcgeezer1883]

***last minute selection

GB/seattle opened at 48, crossed both 49 and now 50 on bovada to 50.5, the play is UNDER with strong indication due to crossing two Key numbers

[mcgeezer1883]

2-0 this Sunday on the plays. The line movement past the two Key numbers was critical.

5-2 overall...I correct my error in the prior comment stating that I was 5-2 before the GB/SEA game

[KSmooth4U]

Does it work on spreads?? I.e. Indy opened -5.5 tomorrow... Its now at -7... If it gets to 7.5 do you take the Jets seeing that it crossed 7?

[Dano85]

Read the quote again...I specifically said it's a play for tracking this method...I didn't suggest a wager based on my own personal analysis which has nothing to do with the thread.

Games I have endorsed based on this method thus far are 5-2, and would be 6-2 of I hadn't forgot to make CLE/NY official

Yeah i said unofficial cause I did not wager on it, and you used the words "officially advocated". system seems quite interesting and is doing rather well so far.

[mcgeezer1883]

Does it work on spreads?? I.e. Indy opened -5.5 tomorrow... Its now at -7... If it gets to 7.5 do you take the Jets seeing that it crossed 7?

No it is for point totals only

[mcgeezer1883]

Yeah i said unofficial cause I did not wager on it, and you used the words "officially advocated". system seems quite interesting and is doing rather well so far.

Sorry I thought you were implying that I didn't make it a selection for the thread...hope you got in GB under 50.5

[sshz]

Posted in wrong thread...sorry.

[mcgeezer1883]

To the original poster..........

1. Money Management.....generally accepted policy is you should never bet more than 1/20th of your stake on any one game.

2. Early season........never make a serious bet the 1st 2-3 weeks of the season.

3. Parleys/Teaser.......these are sucker bets for recreational gamblers only.


You violated all 3 rules, no surprise you're losing badly. This week, the bookies made back everything they lost in the 1st week so most gamblers lost (in pro games). At this point, study up the next few weeks, save for a new bankroll and move on (start over) in a few weeks. It all tends to average out of the course of a season (IF YOU ARE MAKING STRAIGHT BETS ONLY).....


Just a side note........I normally do not make any bets the 1st 2 weeks but this year I made $100 bets on each of the PRICKS 5 bets in his contest, which I agreed with and liked. He's 8-1-1 so far so I'm up obviously.

Your posting in the wrong thread bud

FWIW...not all teasers are sucker bets. You can gain huge advantages with Wong teasers.

[bobbywaves]

Why NFL only, why doesn't it work for college totals?