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Cross44 NFL Wagers 2015-2016
Gonna start the season as public as I can be:
Philadelphia Eagles/Atlanta Falcons Over 54½ -110* 1x
Miami Dolphins -3½ -110*vs Washington Redskins 1x
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 -110*vs Tennessee Titans1x
Philadelphia Eagles/Atlanta Falcons Over 55 -110*1x
Green Bay Packers -1 *vs Chicago Bears
New England Patriots -1½ *vs Pittsburgh Steelers 1x
Best of luck!
Philadelphia Eagles/Atlanta Falcons Over 54½ -110*1x
Philadelphia Eagles/Atlanta Falcons Over 55 -110*1x
Makes zero sense.
Just pound the 54 1/2. Why risk a push at 55, that makes zero sense. Sounds like air bettor logic
That was a typo when I was copying/pasting. Def have money at stake.
I'm going to do a better job of updating this thread through the year. Here was my week 1, sitting at 5-2.
I post all my pre and post game thoughts in detail here: www.xinglosesmoney.com
Week 2 Early Bets:
St. Louis Rams -3 -115*vs Washington Redskins – 1x
Denver Broncos +3 -115*vs Kansas City Chiefs – 1x
Week 2 Leans:
Cleveland Browns* +1½ -110 vs Tennessee Titans
Chicago Bears* +2½ -110 vs Arizona Cardinals
New England Patriots* -1½ -110 vs Buffalo Bills
Teams I like in 2 Team 6 Point Teaser:
Indy -1.5
Seattle +10
Ravens -1
Jaguars +13
Updated Week 2 Wagers and Leans:
6-2 YTD
Wagers Locked In
St. Louis Rams -3 -115* vs Washington Redskins - 1x
Interesting that the spread swung to -3.5 and then came back early Friday afternoon, despite 80% of public on Rams. That’s “sharp” money, technically, but seems about as sharp as a butter knife to me.
Arizona Cardinals/Chicago Bears Over 46 -110* – 1x
Talked myself out of the Bears after the line swung from+2.5 to +2. I think the safer bet here is on the Over. See big days for Forte and Palmer.
Carolina Panthers -3 -105* vs Houston Texans – 1x
Went ahead and locked this in as the line shifted to 3 with reduced vig. I see it getting some pushback soon from sharps at this price. Not having Kuechly hurts, but you’re telling me Ryan Mallet is going to lead his team to points vs this stout Carolina D? On the road? Despite his “good showing” yards coming in garbage time? In Cam we trust.
New England Patriots* pk -110 vs Buffalo Bills - 1x
Line shift back to pick em due to “sharp” money on the Bills. I get that this D has kept everyone and their mother in check at home for like 10 games, but come ooooon. Brady vs Tyrod Taylor. Patriots in FU mode? Sure, I’ll be your huckleberry.
2-Team 6 Point Teaser
Baltimore Ravens -1 * vs Oakland Raiders – 1x
Indianapolis Colts -1½ * vs New York Jets – 1x
Ravens aren’t going to start the year 0-2, not against this Raiders team. Ditto for the Colts, and I don’t think the Jets recover all FIVE fumbles and get 2 INT in the red zone this game.
Strong Leans
Cleveland Browns* +1½ -110 vs Tennessee Titans - 1x
I’m in if this line hits +2.5 or higher. Will be last minute bet. If only Cleveland’s QB wasn’t Johnny Manzel, it’s the only thing stopping a whopper from me. So much value in terms of public perception of what happened vs what actually happened to BOTH these teams last week.
Atlanta Falcons* +2½ -105 vs New York Giants - 1x
The Falcons D looked FAST last week under Quinn’s leadership, and I just don’t see how this depleted Giants D stop Julio at all. Betting is split between the two teams, but I would play this game at it’s current price, and be thrilled at +3.
Live Bet: Cowboys +6.5 -110 - 1x
Too many points.
Added .5x to my Baltimore/Indy tease
YTD: 10-4 +4.6x
Should've gone with my gut on the Leans, but can't complain about another 5-2 week. Balitmore destroyed what would've been a great week, but I'll settle for a good one no complaints!
Week 3 Early Wagers locked in:
Pittsburgh Steelers -1 -110* vs St. Louis Rams - 1x
Typically, I'd be on the Rams as home-dogs coming off a loss, but I think this Pittsburgh offense with Bell back is just too overwhelming for the stout D. Expecting the public to be with me so locking it in early.
Atlanta Falcons pk -1 -110* vs Dallas Cowboys - 2x
No Dez, No Gregory, No Hardy, No Romo, and this game is a pick'em. Atlanta's Run D looks great, Trufant erases Williams, and Jason Witten limps around the field doing nothing. Potentially low scoring game, and I'll take Ryan over Weedan thanks.
Easier to follow summary:
Week 1:
1. 9/13 Miami Dolphins -4 -110 vs Washington Redskins - 1x (WIN)
2. 9/13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 -110 vs Tennessee Titans - 1x (LOSS)
3. 9/13 6 pt tease: Green Bay Packers -1 vs Chicago Bears | New England Patriots -1½ vs Pittsburgh Steelers - 1x (WIN)
4. 9/13 New York Giants +7 -115 vs Dallas Cowboys (WIN)
5. 9/13 San Francisco 49ers +3 -115 vs Minnesota Vikings (WIN)
6. 9/14 Philadelphia Eagles/Atlanta Falcons Over 54½ -110 - 1x (LOSS)
7. 9/14 Atlanta Falcons +3½ -115 vs Philadelphia Eagles - .5 (WIN)
Week 2:
8.Denver Broncos +3 -115* vs Kansas City Chiefs – 1x (WIN)
9. St. Louis Rams -3 -115* vs Washington Redskins – 1x (LOSS)
10.Arizona Cardinals/Chicago Bears Over 46 -110* – 1x (WIN)
11.Carolina Panthers -3 -105* vs Houston Texans – 1x (WIN)
12.New England Patriots* pk -110 vs Buffalo Bills – 1x (WIN)
13. Dallas Cowboys +6½ -105*vs Philadelphia Eagles – .5x (WIN)
14. 6 pt tease Baltimore Ravens -1 * vs Oakland Raiders | Indianapolis Colts -1½ * vs New York Jets – 1.5x (LOSS)
Week 3:
15. Atlanta Falcons pk -120* vs Dallas Cowboys - 2x
16. Pittsburgh Steelers -1 -110* vs St. Louis Rams - 1x
17. Indianapolis Colts/Tennessee Titans Over 45 -110* - 1x
18. New York Giants -3 -115* vs Washington Redskins -1x
YTD: 10-4, +4.6x
Week 3: Square as a Cube
15. Atlanta Falcons pk -120* vs Dallas Cowboys – 2x
16. Pittsburgh Steelers -1 -110* vs St. Louis Rams – 1x
17. Indianapolis Colts/Tennessee Titans Over 45 -110* – 1x
18. New York Giants -3 -115* vs Washington Redskins -1x (WIN)
19. Miami Dolphins -3 -105* vs Buffalo Bills - 1x
20. 3 Team 9.5 pt Tease: Carolina PK, Patriots -5, Seahawks -6. - 1x
21. 2 Team 6 Point Tease: Packers -1, Texans -1 - 1x
YTD: 11-4, +5.5x
YTD: 16-5, +10.3xOriginally Posted by Cross44
Why don't we bring this chalk week home with Broncos -3 - 1x
Week 1:
1. 9/13 Miami Dolphins -4 -110 vs Washington Redskins - 1x (WIN)
2. 9/13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 -110 vs Tennessee Titans - 1x (LOSS)
3. 9/13 6 pt tease: Green Bay Packers -1 vs Chicago Bears | New England Patriots -1½ vs Pittsburgh Steelers - 1x (WIN)
4. 9/13 New York Giants +7 -115 vs Dallas Cowboys (WIN)
5. 9/13 San Francisco 49ers +3 -115 vs Minnesota Vikings (WIN)
6. 9/14 Philadelphia Eagles/Atlanta Falcons Over 54½ -110 - 1x (LOSS)
7. 9/14 Atlanta Falcons +3½ -115 vs Philadelphia Eagles - .5 (WIN)
Week 2:
8.Denver Broncos +3 -115* vs Kansas City Chiefs – 1x (WIN)
9. St. Louis Rams -3 -115* vs Washington Redskins – 1x (LOSS)
10.Arizona Cardinals/Chicago Bears Over 46 -110* – 1x (WIN)
11.Carolina Panthers -3 -105* vs Houston Texans – 1x (WIN)
12.New England Patriots* pk -110 vs Buffalo Bills – 1x (WIN)
13. Dallas Cowboys +6½ -105*vs Philadelphia Eagles – .5x (WIN)
14. 6 pt tease Baltimore Ravens -1 * vs Oakland Raiders | Indianapolis Colts -1½ * vs New York Jets – 1.5x (LOSS)
Week 3:
15. Atlanta Falcons pk -120* vs Dallas Cowboys - 2x (WIN)
16. Pittsburgh Steelers -1 -110* vs St. Louis Rams - 1x (WIN)
17. Indianapolis Colts/Tennessee Titans Over 45 -110* - 1x (WIN)
18. New York Giants -3 -115* vs Washington Redskins -1x (WIN)
19. Miami Dolphins -3 -105* vs Buffalo Bills - 1x (LOSS)
20. 3 Team 9.5 pt Tease: Carolina PK, Patriots -5, Seahawks -6. - 1x (WIN)
21. 2 Team 6 Point Tease: Packers -1, Texans -1 - 1x (WIN)
22. Denever Broncos -3 -110* vs Detroit Lions - 1x (WIN)
YTD: 17-5, +11.5x
Yowza let's keep it going hot as lava! *knock on wood*
23. Baltimore Ravens -2.5 -100 vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Wanted to get this one in since the line is fluctuating between -2.5 and -3. I don't think Harbaugh lets the Ravens quit. And that terrible D will probably meet it's match in Vick.
Week 4 Wagers Locked In
23. Baltimore Ravens -2½ -110* vs Pittsburgh Steelers - 1x
“I won't put it all on my shoulders,” Vick said. “I'll take sole responsibility of everything that happens, but I'm just going to prepare myself and get myself into position to help this football team.” - Michael Vick, starting QB for the Pittsburgh Steelers, everyone.
24. 3 Team 9.5 pt Teaser: Colts PK, Packers PK, Seahawks -½ -110* - 1x
Cheesy square play but we've been feasting on cheesy square plays all year so why stop now?
Week Leans
Chicago Bears* +3 -115 vs Oakland Raiders
Lets check off everything we like about this game:
- Homedog +3
- One team coming off a shut out loss, the other a surprisingly road victory
- The hype train left the station for Carr and Amari Cooper
- Raiders going from West to East for 1:00 PM game
- Jimmy 'Fuckin' Clausin as our QB
Just kidding about the last one. Nevertheless, the Bears D has looked not hopeless these past three games (given the offense). The news of a player fire sale makes me uneasy, but John Fox is a real coach and if his offense can maintain time of possession with Forte... watch out, they could very easily lose by less than 3. With 80% of public on Raiders, I'm hoping for 3.5.
Houston Texans* +6½ -110 vs Atlanta Falcons
85% on Falcons at the moment. If this line hits 7 or higher and Arian Foster is back, I'm in. The Texans are no joke, and you saw what a Randle did to the Falcons D on Sunday. Imagine that with Arian Foster and JJ Watt on D, would you lay 7? I don't think I would.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers* +3 +100 vs Carolina Panthers
Homedog that I'm looking to get +3.5 since public is backing the Panthers. Are you seeing a trend in the leans? The dogs are howling this week! Divisional rivals tend to play each other tough, and I'm thinking the Bucs can keep it under a FG in a low scoring contest.
Kansas City Chiefs* +4 -110 vs Cincinnati Bengals
I like teams coming off of embarrassing losses in prime time. More inherent value in the line. I also like the Chiefs who tend to play opponents hard who are not Aaron Rodgers on whatever space crack he's on in Lambeau.
2 Team 6 Pt Tease Targets I like:
Denver Broncos -1 vs Vikings
Arizona Cardinals -1 vs Rams
Very possible I tease one of the dogs I like above with one of the favorites between Broncos and Cardinals.
As usual, my twitter on the side of the website has my live bets.
All plays posted live on website: www.xinglosesmoney.com
Week 4
23. Baltimore Ravens -2½ -110* vs Pittsburgh Steelers - 1x
24. 3 Team 9.5 pt Teaser: Colts PK, Packers PK, Seahawks -½ -110* - 1.25x
25. 2 Team Teaser 6 Pts Broncos -1, Cardinals -1½ - 1.25
26. Miami Dolphins +2½ +100 vs New York Jets
Since I'm up, I'm giving the Miami D on more week to come alive. More to come...
Miami looking like clowns, letting Tannerhill stand like a statue in the pocket with no extra blockers vs the blitz, which is coming almost every other play. He got hit with the exact blitz 3 plays in a row, and Miami doesn't adjust. What a joke. Meanwhile Ryan Fitzpatrick has literally all day vs Wake and Suh, throwing his darts and hoping to get lucky.
I was looking for the Philbin first coach to be fired prop but 5Dimes didn't offer it. Would've been a smart hedge.
Week 4
23. Baltimore Ravens -2½ -110* vs Pittsburgh Steelers - 1x
24. 3 Team 9.5 pt Teaser: Colts PK, Packers PK, Seahawks -½ -110* - 1.25x
25. 2 Team Teaser 6 Pts Broncos -1, Cardinals -1½ - 1.25
26. Miami Dolphins +2½ +100 vs New York Jets - 1x
27. New York Giants +6½ -110*vs Buffalo Bills - 2x
28. New Orleans Saints -3 -120*vs Dallas Cowboys - 1x
29. Chicago Bears +3.5 -110*vs Oakland Raiders - 1x
BOL
YTD: 20-7 (+13.1x)
Didn't particularly like the card this week and all the lines moved against my Leans on Sunday morning. Two takeaway: 1.) Don't believe a penetrating thing Pagano says about Luck. 2.) Don't wait last minute for "sharp" plays if you like the number, take it.
Happy to get out of this week with a small gain. I like the Saints a lot tonight. Brees is typically on another planet in Prime Time at home, so I'll waste some earnings to gamble that he's healthy.
Adding 1x to:
New Orleans Saints - 3 - 120 vs Dallas Cowboys - 1x (for 2x Total)
And the shit stain is no longer employed. I'm 1-3 this year wagering on the Dolphins and I'll be damned if I waste another dollar on the Fins. The news of Tannerhill talking shit to practice squad corners for intercepting him is priceless. The whole organization is a streaming pile of shit top to bottom.
We escape the day up big again thanks to our 2x hitting on Giants and Saints, bringing our 2 unit plays for the year to 3-0. Lines all went against my leans on Sunday so I opted out of losing money on Tampa and Houston. Luckily, the Bills line jumped from 5 back up to 6.5 and that was some last minute value I couldn't ignore as I was kicking myself all week for not betting the +6 on the giants when I had the chance. Eli always zigs when you expect him to zag...
YTD: 21-7 (+15.1x)
We're letting Seachickens ride tonight as the last leg of our 3 team tease for 1.25x. If we win tonight we'll maintain our 75%+ winrate ATS for another week. Check back in as I'll probably have Leans for week 5 posted tonight.
YTD: 22-7 (+16.35x)
Week 5 Wagers locked in:
Buffalo Bills -2½ -115* vs Tennessee Titans – 1x
Bills coming off an ugly home loss to the Giants, who might have a sneaky decent defense. You can’t weight the loss vs Eli and company as evenly as they’re the sports equivalent of a roulette wheel. McCoy and Waktins being out doesn’t really effect the line as I think Karlos Williams and Charles Clay are suitable replacements. I know Titans have 10 days to prepare for this defense, but I think Rex Ryan dials up the exotic blitzes and keep Mariota from getting a rhythm. Isn’t that his calling card? It scares me the line started at +4 and was bet all the down to -2½ -115, which means early money (and a lot of it) is on the Titans to push it past the key 3. I see this number going back up to 3 before game time and I like the Bills so… shot fired.
Two Team 7pt Tease -120
New England Patriots -2½ * vs Dallas Cowboys & New York Giants -1 * vs San Francisco 49ers
My bookie has a teaser protect on the Pats this week so I paid the extra vig (-120) to be able to get them for under a field goal. I love the spot for the Patriots coming off a bye week vs Weedan. Scares me that Hardy and McLane are back for the Cowgirls, but I don’t see them turning things around this week. I’ve faded Weedan 3 weeks in a row and I don’t see myself stopping this week. The Giants are first place in their division and are coalescing on both sides of the ball. SF coming off a few ugly loses scares me, but I truly believe Kaepernick’s career is coming to an end. This is a dude who use to zip 40 yard TD passes with both feet in the air, and now he can’t even hit 5 yard routes. What happened?
Buffalo Bills/Tennessee Titans Over 41½ -110* - 1x
Chicago Bears/Kansas City Chiefs Over 44½ -110* - 1x
Games dipped 2-3 points from where they opened. Taking the value.
Week 5 Early Leans:
Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts
No line for this game yet due to Lucks uncertainty but we can talk about it. I love teams coming off a blowout loss as there tends to be value on the lines due to public perception and more incentive for the team to recover from the embarrassment. The Colts have not looked like themselves this year, and 0-3 against the spread (0-3). Arian Foster should be closer to a full workload now and I think Texans maintain time of possession at home and keep the score low on a ugly Thursday night name. I’d lean Texans if spread +6 or higher. +7 or higher is an instant bet for me.
Tampa Bay -3 -105 vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Jameis Winston has 7 int for the year, 4 of them happening vs the Panthers last week. The Panthers D at full powerful is a top 5 unit, and I’m not surprised they shut down Tampa’s pass heavy offense. This is the Bucs second home game, coming off a home loss vs the Jaguars second road game. Jaguars have a decent front 7, but I see Evans and Jackson open all day. I lean Tampa if the line drops to 2.5, and the Over 42.5 if it stays at 3.
Washington +7.5 -120 vs Atlanta Falcons
So I didn’t like the Falcons as big home favorites last week but luckily passed on the Houston bet thanks to the line going all the way from +6.5 to +4 last minute. I think the sharps are probably a little stung to go in on Washington early this week, and the value is there in the line given the Falcons blowout win at home. Washington D on the other hand has looked great 4 games in a row now and should be able to slow down Freeman. Cousins on the road is still Cousins on the road, so unless this line can get to +7.5 with good vig, I’ll probably pass.
Denver Broncos vs Oakland Raiders OVER 43.5 points
Oakland came out as a +5.5 dog and it’s down to 4.5 already. I’d take Oakland at +7 without a second thought, given that the Broncos shouldn’t be a large favorite over anyone with Peyton playing like a geriatric patient. However, I don’t trust Oakland’s D for less than 7. The O/U began at 45 and was bet down to 43.5. I know Denver probably has the best pass rush / defense in the league, but this is their second week on the road and I see points off turnovers happening this game to both sides.
I am for sure interested in the game of the week between CIN and SEA so check back for an update for that once the lines are out. I will probably lean Detroit vs Arizona, but given how well both Zona and Detroit played in their loss, might not have enough line value to go either direction.
Last edited by Cross44; 10-06-15 at 04:02 PM. Reason: added the overs
Well, I got lucky with the Colts last week when I took them at -9 with a 3 team 9.5 point teaser. I fell for the bullshit again thinking Luck was playing for sure and that the line was a steal.
Oh well, I might as well stay accurate with my record despite the embarrassing play. Thought about buying out of it when Texans got up to -2.5, but honestly, I can see the Colts winning this game. Not likely, but with Mallet as your QB anything is possible. Let's not forget they BARELY beat the Bucs at home.
Colts PK -110 vs Houston Texans - 1x
Tailing on Bears Chiefs Over.. good call there.
Dude you're on fire! Nice work. Im definitely gonna check in here before I place my bets
Two weeks in a row, Matt Hasslebeck beats back father time and I get bailed out of an embarrassing bet.
I 100% respect jinxs but this stat is too good to ignore. On Prime Time games (TNF, SNF, MNF) this year, where I’m betting against the spread, I am 12-0, and 2-0 in teased game.
What’s my secret? I’ll tell you. Sheer fukin' luck.
Week 5 NFL 2015:
30. Indianapolis Colts PK -110 vs Houston Texans - 1x (WIN)
31. Buffalo Bills -2½ -115* vs Tennessee Titans - 1x
32. 2 Team 7 Pt Tease - 120: Patriots -2½ & New York Giants -1 - 1.25x (ate vig to push Pats under FG)
33. Buffalo Bills/Tennessee Titans Over 41½ -110*
34. Chicago Bears/Kansas City Chiefs Over 44½ -110*
35. San Diego Chargers -3 -120* vs Pittsburgh Steelers
YTD 23-7 (+17.35 units)
Strong Leans:
Washington +7.5 (only if I can get 7.5 without extra vig)
Seattle +3 (I'm looking for at LEAST +100 +3. Ideally +3.5 -115 but probably won't happen.)
A couple other weaker leans I like such as PHI, DEN, but I'm passing unless the line shifts significantly to my side on Sunday. Usually, 25% of my bets happen at ~12:45 Sunday Morning, as that's when lines tend to go through their final big moves. You can follow my bets live via twitter and my site: www.xinglosesmoney.com
36. Seattle Seahawks +155* vs Cincinnati Bengals - 1.5x
Debated taking +3.5 -120, but I don't see the points mattering this game. If Seattle D spooks Dalton, they will win. If not, it will probably be an ugly loss.
37. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1½ -110* vs Jacksonville Jaguars - 1x
Jaguars getting some last minute love on their second road game. Think there's some value with Tampa given their talent vs how they've looked with Jameis through 4 games.
That's it for the morning card. BOL!
Week 5 NFL 2015:
30. Indianapolis Colts PK -110 vs Houston Texans - 1x (WIN)
31. Buffalo Bills -2½ -115* vs Tennessee Titans - 1x (LOSS)
32. 2 Team 7 Pt Tease - 120: Patriots -2½ & New York Giants -1 - 1.25x (ate vig to push Pats under FG) (WIN)
33. Buffalo Bills/Tennessee Titans Over 41½ -110* (LOSS)
34. Chicago Bears/Kansas City Chiefs Over 44½ -110* (LOSS)
35. San Diego Chargers -3 -120* vs Pittsburgh Steelers (PENDING)
36. Seattle Seahawks +155* vs Cincinnati Bengals - 1.5x (LOSS)
37. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1½ -110* vs Jacksonville Jaguars - 1x (WIN)
YTD 25-11 (+15.15 units)
My first bad week. I envisioned a very different Buffalo vs Ten game. Sharps haven't been on the right-side of a game like this in four weeks, and I thought I'd ride the square wave until it breaks. Well it broke, kinda. Ten +3 was the play, as was the under and I looked like a fool on both my bets.
I wavered back and forward on taking SEA ML vs SEA +3.5 (-120). Knew this was my biggest play of the week, and decided to go ML for half a unit less, and save some money on the high vig. It was a greedy play that cost me a 5th winning week in a row. I've always been more comfortable with the spread, and I should make it my home again and avoid these ML gambles. It's hard enough to win a game with 50:50 set odds.
I hit a prop on Eli > 50.5 passing yards than Kaep last night for 1x, but didn't post it. If I continue my 12-0 (3-0 teased) prime time streak on Chargers -3 tonight, I will still bring this week back up to black. Can't win them all.
Two Early Square Bets:
Falcons -3 (-120) - 1x
Patriots -7 (-120) - 2.5x
Went ahead and posted both these bets last night. Knew the public action would push it against my sides as early as this morning and sure enough ATL is at -3.5 and Pats at -8.
There's a chance I might buy a little out of one or both these bets, depending on news of Julio and Luck throughout the week.
Unlike most posters on here, I don't really believe in any bets more than 3 units (6% of my bankroll). 2.5 is my biggest bet of the year, to illustrate how much I like the Patriots in this revenge game.
Looking to rebound from my first losing week. Lots of chalk and lots of big bets definitely worry me, but what can we do?
Week 6 so far:
38. Carolina Panthers/Seattle Seahawks Under 41½ -110* – 1x
39. New England Patriots -7 -120* vs Indianapolis Colts – 2.5x
40. Atlanta Falcons -3 -120* vs New Orleans Saints – 1x
41. Arizona Cardinals -3 -110* vs Pittsburgh Steelers – 2x
Strong Leans:
Buffalo Bills* +3 -115 vs Cincinnati Bengals
Houston Texans* -1½ -110 vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Minnesota Vikings -4 vs Kansas City Chiefs
Full writeup: www.xinglosesmoney.com
Updated Week 6:
38. Carolina Panthers/Seattle Seahawks Under 41½ -110* – 1x
39. New England Patriots -7 -120* vs Indianapolis Colts – .5x or 1x
40. Atlanta Falcons -3 -120* vs New Orleans Saints – 1x
41. Arizona Cardinals -3 -110* vs Pittsburgh Steelers – 2x
42. San Diego Chargers +10 -110* vs Green Bay Packers - 1x
43. 2 Team 7 Pt Tease: Seattle Seahawks -½ New England Patriots -2½ -120* - 2x
Strong Leans:
Buffalo Bills* +3.5 -115 vs Cincinnati Bengals
Minnesota Vikings -4 vs Kansas City Chiefs
- I decided to buy out of my initial bet of Patriots -7 (-120) for 2.5x. Waiting till I can get +7 (+120) on Indy to buy out my original side, currently at +110. Reasoning: I'm not particularly thrilled about this line movement thus far, and with Luck back I can see the Colts potentially playing a competitive game so I prefer -2.5 to -7. I am also leaning hard on Seahawks to win outright at home to avoid 2-4. Surprisingly public on the Panthers mostly, but sharp money has been on the Seattle to cover 7. I like teasing both these teams for 2x, as I think they'll both win. I will decide this weekend how much I'll keep on the Pats -7. Thinking .5x or 1x.
- I added Chargers because 10 points is too much. I gave the public a couple days to drive this to 10.5, but I don't see it happening. It's very possible sharps bet this to under 10 at any moment so I'll take the Chargers with 10 points. I think Greenbay's injuries are finally catching up to them, and it's just a matter of time a good QB keeps it close.
- Got rid of my Texan leans. Still like Texans, but better games this week and don't want to spread myself out too thin. This will be a pass.
- EJ Manuel over Tyrod Taylor is big news against the Bills. I got the 3.5 -115 I wanted, but I don't feel nearly as comfortable with Manuel in as the starter now. I like the Bills, but def not on the ML anymore. If I can get +3.5 or +4 with standard vig I'll pull the trigger for 1x.
couple buffalo guys i know tell me ej made a lot of strides this offseason. who knows, i really wanna see williams clear concussion protocol and think that be enough for me to play bills. great spot for them, as high as i been on bungals and as improved as i think dalton is i still dont buy he can continue this without any miss steps of the old andy showing his head . if that ever gonna happen this seems as likely a spot as any. my biggest thing here is the freaking pats were less than fg favs in buffalo, im not ready to say that bungals should be laying bigger road numbers than the pats for christ sakes! i think it fair to say lines have finally caught up to cincy this week.
That's a good heads up. Personally, I thought EJ Manuel did okay last year, but def a step down from Tyrod. Word is Tyrod still practicing in limited fashion so who knows what's going to happen Sunday. Line is moving away from Bills +3.5. I'm waiting to bet this last minute if it gets back to 3.5, no matter who is starting.
Adding a prop bet tonight:
Drew Brees -20.5 Passing Yards to Matt Ryan -115 1x
Saints have a porous run defense and with Julio hurt I think Atlanta runs the ball as their primary offense, as they've done the past 3 games. If Saints win this game it'll be because Saints get lucky on TO and Brees outshoots Ryan in a high scoring game.
I think this bet is a good hedge for my Falcons -3 bet.
Not to burst your bubble but the Saints have the worst pass defense in the league. They aren't gonna need to throw to Julio when everyone else is open as well. QB's regularly have 5+ seconds before they have to even think about a pass rush. That being said, Brees could out-throw Ryan. CJ Spiller is back and they want to hit him on the perimeter which should take some of the focus off of other pass catchers like Hill and Cooks. Spiller is the x-factor in this game.
On the flip side, Dan Quinn has a ton of experience dealing with the Saints' offense which philosophically is largely unchanged. He understands that Payton wants to get RB's in the flat and I'm sure the Falcs are ready for that. Hopefully for you that involves shadowing him on every down leaving more single coverage or mismatches.
I hope you win. BOL
Dalton comes back down 14 in the 4th, Chargers give up 14 points on two plays, and now Falcons have 4 TO in first half and Ryan drives down the field, takes two sacks, and finishes a drive to kill by prop with him and Brees by 5 yards.
I feel a little shell shocked from the turn of events from the last 3 games I watched. Luckily, kept the units steady. We'll try to turn things around this weekend but I have to get this sick taste out of my mouth before I took at another card.
I'll be busy tomorrow morning so I went ahead and filled out the rest of my card. Letting it all ride, BOL.
Week 6:
41. Arizona Cardinals -3 -110* vs Pittsburgh Steelers – 2x
42. New England Patriots -7 -120* vs Indianapolis Colts – 2.5x
43. Carolina Panthers/Seattle Seahawks Under 41½ -110* – 1x
44. San Diego Chargers +10 -110* vs Green Bay Packers – 1x
45. 6.5 PT Tease Patriots -2.5, Seahawks -½ -120* – 2x
46. Chicago Bears +3½ -105* vs Detroit Lions – 1x
47. Washington Redskins +7 -115* vs New York Jets – 1x
48. Buffalo Bills +3 -105* vs Cincinnati Bengals – 1x
49. New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts O54 - 5x
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