[jjgold]

Dog again

Fuk

[Jayvegas420]

Sick

[KVB]

For tonight’s game the unsophisticated line gets a boost because we have one more week of data. Truthfully, there is very little real sharpness in the line before the end of week 4. We are still early and the boost of data is really more of a perceived gain in sharpness. The fact is, Hamilton scored 52 points in their second game, a pretty high score, and the initial line, finally getting the right side in my opinion, with Hamilton, was bound to be inflated but couldn’t be set at more than three. Even at -3, legitimate market moving money was bound to pull that line down as it attempts to adjust ratings.

I have a rough prediction of about 30-20 in favor of the Hamilton. I know this is inflated. Remember, in the last 3 games the rough, unsophisticated prediction’s winner was the underdog, covering all three, pushing the closer on two of them.

The oddsmakers finally have my rough predicted winner as a favorite. After all, as unsophisticated as it is, it has worked three times in a row. The money behind those predictions has gained confidence and is flush with wins. To further the point, new money using such unsophisticated lines but entering for the first time is also headed to Hamilton.

As a result, Hamilton must be favored at the open in this matchup to prevent books from getting one sided or forced into a middle. Smart bettors know this and have countered public opinion, coming in on the underdog side. Also, word has been getting out that the underdog gets the prize in the CFL and we see that money, also unsophisticated, coming in on Montreal. The books are adjusting downward and we see -2.5 in many places.

For the first time in five games, the underdog bettors and the unsophisticated line are on separate sides. The books have split the people.

Notice, my penciled score of 30-20 also gives us a rough total prediction of 50 points. The opening total for this game was the highest of the year 54 points. That line has only had downward pressure, toward my 50, although the pressure has only moved the line to 53.5.

This game is the first of week four and, if you intend to follow the trail of money through the weekend, should be a pass.

If you need action, and understand the risks of early season gambling, then pick up the Under 53.5 points, although 54 would be much better.

The money that understands what I’ve explained about the line above will eventually get theirs and are generally looking for that unsophisticated line to finally revert and lose. If that happens tonight, it will be another underdog. Thing is, it doesn’t need to happen tonight, the unsophisticated line and bettors can go on a tremendous win streak. Due to the poor money management and betting habits of these individuals, the books know they will get their money back eventually.

[jjgold]

KVB good write up

KICKOFF

[icecapper]

Hamilton comes out strong here. -3 Even.

[KVB]

Not bad ice, if I had to pick a side, I'd take Hamilton -2.5. But the Under looks a little better to me in this one.

[Ra77er]

Good information KVB, I took the -2.5 in this one but I wish I had the total.

[jjgold]

KVB you must know the league inside and out

[Jayvegas420]

Under is HUGE

[Ellivennecq]

Those f*cking refs, hilarious

[Jayvegas420]

Not much better than the NFL.

[Ellivennecq]

Shit is just unwatchable.

[Jayvegas420]

How much did you have on it?

[Ghenghis Kahn]

dog cashes again...

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Under is HUGE

Rocking-chair winner for u guys.

[jjgold]

under came in easy

[Ra77er]

KVB writes love poems of CFL plays, very arousing and frightening at the same time. He can't always be right can he? Tell em Daniel

[KVB]

Analyzing tonight’s first game between Edmonton and Ottawa produces virtually the same read as last night. There are many similarities. In tonight’s game I have the favorite winning by about 9 points but know it’s inflated. I have a rough total of 45 points and once again the total moved lower to 47.5 from opening at 49.

Taking the Under 47.5 would be to go to the same well as you did last night. There is a tendency for these things to even out, and this line is by no means sharp, although still competing with the books, so I would be wary.

Game one is a pass on both bets for me but I will be watching closely. Once again I am watching the flow of money.

I’m not sure if tonight’s analysis for the second game is going to sit well with many but let me just say I wouldn’t be surprised if, for the first game tonight, the final spread or total result is in question until very late in the game, close to the start of the second game between BC and Saskatchewan.

These situations often show themselves with an overtime session or two in the first game of the night. This would keep the sharper market readers in limbo while the books pick off this week’s targets.

[KVB]

I went ahead and picked up Edmonton Eskimos -145 to beat the Ottawa Redblacks for the first game tonight. There is a little more risk to it but I'll have a better idea at halftime where this stands.

[KVB]

…Smart bettors know this and have countered public opinion, coming in on the underdog side…

…The money that understands what I’ve explained about the line above will eventually get theirs and are generally looking for that unsophisticated line to finally revert and lose. If that happens tonight, it will be another underdog…

Montreal, the underdog ended up winning that game Thursday night.

Lesson…if I mention something about smarter bettors or smarter, more sophisticated money going a certain direction, it might be wise to pay attention.

[KVB]

Right now it's halftime of game 1 tonight and we are seeing the favorite covering, though not by much, with a significant Under pace...8-3, Edmonton leads.

Edmonton is favored for the 2nd half by 1/2. Money has been coming in on Ottawa and even the TV is talking about how it wouldn't take much for Ottawa to roll.

Despite this, Ottawa remains a +1/2 underdog for the second half. Pop quiz, what would you buy?

I already own Edmonton to win so feel confident in holding here.

[KVB]

...After all, when the moneyline is concerned, the betting is balanced, and in view of a “base betting” math, books make no profit when favorites when. Books only profit against the money line when underdogs win...

For the majority of the half the line has been Edmonton -1/2 with a plus moneyline price. There has been a cost to the +1/2. For example, Pinnacle has been offering -1/2 (+105) and as much as (+108).

Given what I quoted above on July 9th, what would you buy now? Is it a wonder SBR shows very late halftime money driving that line to -1/2 (-106).

Can you see why I like Edmonton in this game more than ever?

[Ra77er]

[KVB]

The second game tonight is British Columbia versus Saskatchewan. I have a penciled total of over 70 points in this game and basically have it a pick ‘em.

This rough total line is way out of line and likely inaccurate. Once again an inflated group of bettors thinking they understand the CFL total markets are buying the over.

Those bettors could win again, they will give it back one day, but I don’t think it’s this Friday night and am picking up the UNDER 51.5 (-103) in the BC vs. Saskatchewan game.

[johnny99]

Master

[jjgold]

watching BC game

[KVB]

I was tempted with the over 26 on the second half and was going to post how I thought we might see some scoring. Then we get 14 fuggin points in 5 minutes.

Here comes the scoring.

[KVB]

For those not familiar with some aspects of sharp bookmaking, this was a learn while you earn night.

[adila1401]

For those not familiar with some aspects of sharp bookmaking, this was a learn while you earn night.

hah, right on man! Nice call!

[Jayvegas420]

Was on edm -3.5, never would have touched the under in sask. Nice hits

[Ra77er]

For those not familiar with some aspects of sharp bookmaking, this was a learn while you earn night.

[KVB]

Winnipeg visits Calgary tonight and I have a rough total of 52 points. The line opened at 54, traded at 50.5 and went back to 51.5. I have Calgary a small favorite and we’ve seen this line move from -9 points to -7.5 and even -7 points.

The significance and insignificance of these line moves will be for another post. Suffice to say I will be passing for the game lines and checking in at halftime.

[jjgold]

KVB take the dog

Well it's what I derived from your post

[Ghenghis Kahn]

damn i chickened out going with weennipig.

[KVB]

Funny, I actually had suggested gamblers take the Over tonight, but erased that line in the post thinking I may have a more solid, less speculative halftime bet. There are a lot of points early.