[HeeluvaGuy]

Maybe there's thoughts of OT here.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Well that was an adventure... EDM 17 TOR 14 with the xp pending.

ETA: 17-15

[KVB]

24-15 Edm with the lead 10:30 to go in the fourth.

Punt return for a TD

[KVB]

31-15 Edm with 5 minutes to go.

Edm kicking off.

[KVB]

31-15 Edm lead with 2:47 to go.

Edm close to the Toronto 10, interception return.

We just had a fumble recovery for a TD called back by penalty. Now they are in position.

Right Jay, a nail biter.

[KVB]

[KVB]

I just realized that could be taken either way so...

[HeeluvaGuy]

TOR o11 2h is a no brainer for me.

GL!

Boo

[Hngkng]

Congrats to those that won

[HeeluvaGuy]

Yup. Over 49 for me too. Considered 1h under and Edm team total over, but settled on game over for a few reasons.

GL to all!

Should have played them all lol

[Jayvegas420]

[BamaCBass]

Great job KVB! Congrats on last couple nights and thanks for posting.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Tonight's game is less clear for me than last night's. I have three leans right now, but I will not be playing all of these:

WIN tt o22
o48.5
WIN +5

I hope to have some time to look more at these today and come up with an actual play. GL and enjoy your Saturday!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Also, I finished my second writeup for the first week of college football. Here's what I have so far:

UTSA/Arizona o52.5
Tulane +9

These are quite a bit different from what I've been doing in this thread (working from a model). I'll switch to a more model-based approach in October, but I have found success in the past in doing writeups like these because it forces a lot of research and discipline. (For someone inherently lazy like me, these are a lot of work compared to using models -- once the model is built.)

As I said early on in this thread, my skin is thick, so by all means let me know if I've missed an angle, etc. Also, I have seen very few threads on this site like this (i.e., no trolling). Not sure if creating a separate CFB thread would have the same success.

[Hngkng]

Tonight's game is less clear for me than last night's. I have three leans right now, but I will not be playing all of these:

WIN tt o22
o48.5
WIN +5

I hope to have some time to look more at these today and come up with an actual play. GL and enjoy your Saturday!

I agree wit this, and will go for that bet.

[KVB]

Great job KVB! Congrats on last couple nights and thanks for posting.

[KVB]

We are starting to see the anticipated correction in my predictions against the spread. Again, this is the last week of the first half of the season; it tends to be a little, well, dirty.

For tonight’s game I have a prediction that varies from many. I have Calgary scoring 33 or 34 points to Winnipeg’s 13 or 14. Many models being used figure this to be a closer game. The line opened at Calgary -6.5 but has dropped to 5, in the direction of other predictions.

In my opinion, this move is sinister and designed to steer money. It’s just another way to make this game look like yesterday’s game to various audiences. What’s similar? Well, in both games my prediction goes against many other models, against the line movement, and favors the road team. Both lines are in the 5 and 6 point range.

My predictions have failed twice this week. In the first game, everyone agreed and it was a big upset. In the second game, my prediction varied from other models and lost; everyone got their easy Edmonton.

It’s my opinion these bettors will now look to Winnipeg to cover. I consider Winnipeg +5 a dangerous play and if you are a gambler, Calgary could be the bet. For me, this played out yesterday; I missed an Edmonton win, and hit the total.

The books want us to jump in, any direction, they want action. Sometimes it’s best when we can dictate the terms and pass when they try so hard.

Let’s look at the Total bet…

...FFurther, this line has hit 5, the same as Saturday’s game in Winnipeg. Could we see money being split here? It will be interesting to see if the Totals both settle on 49. By the way, the game on Saturday is also a rematch; the first game was Winnipeg covering as an underdog.

Are you sensing a theme this week?...

Yesterday’s total closed at 49.5 and while today’s line, which opened at 50.5 and moved toward my prediction to 49 points, sits at 49 I wouldn’t be surprised if it ticked up to 49.5.

This is not about money and action; this is about drawing the bettors in. Again, I feel this is about bettors from both sides and enticing them with ideas. There are streak riders and breakers butting heads, the books know some of us have gotten the best of it so far this week and want it back. I’ll have no part and pass on both the Total and the side.

Games like this don’t settle issues, they create them; yet another reason to pass and get more information. If I had to be sucked in, I’d make a play on Calgary -5 and Over 49. This game, with its line movements, could score real close to the actual lines.

The books are seeking action and I’ve hit two days in a row, that’s the best time to stay away.

[KVB]

Tonight's game is less clear for me than last night's. I have three leans right now, but I will not be playing all of these:

WIN tt o22
o48.5
WIN +5

I hope to have some time to look more at these today and come up with an actual play. GL and enjoy your Saturday!

Good Luck Guy, your raw scores have done well this week so far.

Like yesterday, we disagree on spread of this game but we converge again tomorrow. I have Ottawa by 5 or 6 in a 54 point game. You are right on the offered spread of -2.5.

For Week 10 my raw numbers say:

HAM -21.9 50.1
EDM -10.2 51.8
WIN -1.8 51.4
OTT -2.6 54

Good Luck

[HeeluvaGuy]

I settled on:

WIN +5

I may try to find an opportunity to enter the other plays as the game progresses. GL to all!

[KVB]

This game playing to the number so far. The halftime line of 1.5 or 2 takes the final spread back to the Calgary -6.5 that we opened with giving bettor another chance to enter the market.

I still like Calgary but no bet here.

[KVB]

For tonight’s game in Ottawa I have a prediction of Ottawa scoring 30 points to Saskatchewan’s 24 or 25 points. This seems consistent among many models and seems to be a convergence of sorts as I mentioned above about HeeluvaGuy’s numbers. This line opened at Ottawa -3 and dropped to -2.5 while much of the other games were being played this week. Notice that as we get to game day the line ticks back up, towards my prediction. I am going to pass on this spread. It’s just too close to everyone and while it looks like the books want money on Ottawa, and they probably do, I’m going to pass on the side here. We may even see a shift to -3.5 to get those last minute movement guys.

My prediction gives us a 54 or 55 point game again in a bit of convergence with other models. The line opened at 52 and has dropped as far as 50 before ticking back up at some houses to 50.5.

This line may have opened a point or two higher but there is pressure from recently losing streak breaking bettors chasing to get an Under here. I keep talking about the dirty last week of the first half of the season that we are going to run into. I think while the focus is on a Saskatchewan win, the books are going to rely on the psychology of bettors to trip up on tonight’s total.

In part, this is could also be some revenge for bettors getting paid two weeks ago with Calgary. I mentioned the markets were in a bit of a shakeout; I think they will end this half of the season with and have picked up the OVER 50.5 (-105) for Saskatchewan Roughriders versus Ottawa Redblacks.

This game is loaded, everything from parlays to individual action. It is my belief, that while the books were soliciting action on yesterday’s game, that today they have plenty.

Good Luck.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

you can get over 50 -115 at bovada. i love it when bovada offers lower totals for the over. gl

[Hngkng]

I am liking the Saskatchewan Over 22.5 a lot.

The fact that Ottawa could turn to the ground game a lot today scares me about the over 50 a bit.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Total moved to 51 by the time I got around to it today, so I passed. Took SSK +155 on a bit of a whim. I have a few indicators that suggest the Roughriders get their first win today. Far from a lock, but what the hell, right? (I've posted some bad plays this week, so might as well finish it off...)

GL on your plays!

[BamaCBass]

Thoughts at the half anyone?

[HeeluvaGuy]

Thoughts at the half anyone?

Total meltdown by SSK. They can't do anything right.

[Jayvegas420]

Hmmmmm....

[HeeluvaGuy]

So much suck in that game...

[BamaCBass]

So much suck in that game...

Wow! Yeah it did! LOL. Can't win em all but still a good week for some of us as KVB helped the cause with a large barking dog and yesterday.

Looking forward to the second half of the season and hopefully board regulars are up for adding NFL and College into 2 new threads as well. Calling Porkchop or other regular contributors such as KVB or HeeluvaGuy to get those started up! Suppose I can if no one else does but I'm certainly not contributing at this point. Do feel like I'll be able to do so much more in those markets.

[Hngkng]

I apologize for any American viewers that watched Tina Sunseri for the first time today. That guy is complete crap, and I completely hate that bum.

[KVB]

I've been a bit busy and don't have much time now. I am moving the whole office and it's taking a couple of days. For last week's game, I can say that I liked the ending, even though I lost. I talked earlier about the audience being played to and I think I was it. I am not surprised by the ending in that game. Then again, very few things, if any, surprise me in sports anymore. Overall a good second quarter of the season. I'll do a review also, just need to move.

[CanuckG]

Lions +5 this week. Riders are -3.5 at home. LOL. They're due. They fired their GM and coach.

[Hngkng]

Not only are they due, the Riders have always owned the bummers in the Labour Day Classic game.

[Jayvegas420]

Lions +5 this week. Riders are -3.5 at home. LOL. They're due. They fired their GM and coach.

Good info. I was not aware of this.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Update on raw numbers. The worst thing you can be is .500...

		Sides		Totals
		W	L	W	L
Week 5		3	1	1	3
Week 6		4	0	1	3
Week 7		2	2	2	2
Week 8		1	3	3	1
Week 9		1	3	2	2
Week 10		1	3	3	1
Totals		12	12	12	12