[GunShard]

First of all, there's no such thing as a lock.
And if for some reason I get this wrong, congrats to all the Patriots bettors.

I have a 10 units on -110 bet on the Seahawks and 1 unit on +550 bet on the Seahawks future during the offseason.
I maintain money management by betting less than 5% of current total bankroll.
Money management requires self discipline.
"Self-discipline: is the ability to control one's feelings and overcome one's weaknesses; the ability to pursue what one thinks is right despite temptations to abandon it."

I have strong convincing arguments based on science, math and philosophy that defends the Seattle Seahawks.
Betting on intellectual reasons > Betting on emotional reasons
Solid physical evidence > Lack of physical evidence

1. Defense wins championships.
#11 Patriots offense vs #1 Seahawks defense
#9 Seahawks offense vs #13 Patriots defense
Patriots and Seahawks have a common opponent that defeated them this season, the Kansas City Cheifs.
Alex Smith performed against the Patriots defense:
CP/ATT:20/26 YDS:248 TD:3 INT:0
Alex Smith performed against the Seahawks defense:
CP/ATT:11/16 YDS:108 TD:0 INT:0
Tom Brady performed against the Cheifs defense:
CP/ATT:14/23 YDS:159 TD:1 INT:2
Russell Wilson performed against the Cheifs defense:
CP/ATT:20/32 YDS:178 TD:2 INT:0

2. Russell Wilson is 10-0 vs Super Bowl winning quarterbacks.

3. Strongest betting trends: In the history of the NFL, only 9 matchups has happened involving two #1 seeds at the super bowl. The NFC is 7-2 ATS.
There are three NFL Conference Championship OT winners in last 15 years and subsequently all of them won the Super Bowl. They are all from NFC, 2011 New York Giants, 2009 New Orleans Saints and 2007 NY Giants.

4. Fade the public advantage: The public is all over Patriots.
Sharps never judge a football team based on what they did last week.
Every year the public loses on the super bowl most of the time. You have to play the math.

5. +1 ATS advantage: Even if the Patriots win, I can only hope they win by 1 point to push my bet. When the line was at +1.5 I was hoping for the line to move to +2. But I'll take the +1 before it goes back down to a possible PK.

6. Weather factor: The Packers vs Seahawks, the rain negatively effected both Rodgers and Wilson. That's why Wilson performed poorly. The super bowl will be played in a dome stadium in Arizona. Weather will not be a factor and expect Wilson to perform well.

"To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." -Sun Tzu, The Art Of War

"All progress takes place outside the comfort zone." -Michael John Bobak

"All our Knowledge begins with the senses, proceeds then to the understanding, and ends with reason. There is nothing higher than reason." -Immanuel Kant

[STAX]

i agree with some of your pts, but some of the other are irrelavent. your points about alex smith and the Chiefs are meaningless, and so is the NFC being 7-2 in #1 seed battles, and the point about the NFC title game going OT trend. I think R. Wilson being 10-0 vrs the elite QBs is a very great point, I think that carries a lot of water. Not really bc its R. Wilson, but bc the Seattle defense gives opposing QBs fits. Same with the defense wins championships remark, and the weather remark.

One problem though, if there is one kind of offense that Seattle struggles with, it is a power running attack... Dallas did it, Green Bay had some success doing it. Belichik knows this to be true, why do you think they got Blounte? I wouldnt be surprised to see NE try to run the ball 50 times... might just work too. One thing seems to be very true though, you arent gonna beat Seattle by throwing the ball all game

[GunShard]

i agree with some of your pts, but some of the other are irrelavent. your points about alex smith and the Chiefs are meaningless, and so is the NFC being 7-2 in #1 seed battles, and the point about the NFC title game going OT trend. I think R. Wilson being 10-0 vrs the elite QBs is a very great point, I think that carries a lot of water. Not really bc its R. Wilson, but bc the Seattle defense gives opposing QBs fits. Same with the defense wins championships remark, and the weather remark.

One problem though, if there is one kind of offense that Seattle struggles with, it is a power running attack... Dallas did it, Green Bay had some success doing it. Belichik knows this to be true, why do you think they got Blounte? I wouldnt be surprised to see NE try to run the ball 50 times... might just work too. One thing seems to be very true though, you arent gonna beat Seattle by throwing the ball all game

Good points. I believe Stevan Ridley who is injured during the regular season is the Patriots best runningback.
Which Blount are we going to see. The one that performed well against the Colts defense or poorly against the Ravens defense.

I brought up the Chiefs is because of their #7 defense as the Seahawks are #1 defense.
If Tom Brady's Patriots offense played like against that Chiefs defense and if the Seahawks defense are capable of playing like the Chiefs defense on that Monday Night Football game then the Patriots are in trouble.

A reason why sports bettors should never judge a team based on last week is because each team is different.
The Colts are strong on offense and weaker on defense.
The Seahawks are strong on defense and weaker on offense.
Judge a team based on matchups. Never judge a team based on what they did last week.
For me, Patriots bet is a bad bet and the public is all over this as well.
Everyone knows about fading the public. I believe this is one of those times.

[Seaweed]

Seahawks roll

[GunShard]

Seahawks roll

Let's win it.

[MoneyLineDawg]

I'm on it.....I follow the Pats closely and the teams that give them the most trouble are physical teams on offense and teams that can cover man-up on defense

Simple as that, Seahawks are the better squad

[survive]

I'm on it.....I follow the Pats closely and the teams that give them the most trouble are physical teams on offense and teams that can cover man-up on defense

Simple as that, Seahawks are the better squad

I agree. People keep saying the Seahawks are lucky to be here, well you can say the same about New England when they played baltimore imo baltimore was the better team that game. Anyways I think seattles physicality will be a problem like Baltimore was for NE, only this time they will be facing the best secondary by far

[sneakerhead]

I thought Public was on Seattle, that's what's most polls showed

[frostno98]

I'm will be using three different sources to confirm my plays to determine which side the public is on. Both online sources are heavy Pats. Will be at a Super bowl party this week and one of the locals will show me all his client plays. Once I can confirm all 3 sources, I will blindly fade the public play heavy.

[Fidel_CashFlow]

First of all, there's no such thing as a lock.
And if for some reason I get this wrong, congrats to all the Patriots bettors.

I have a 10 units on -110 bet on the Seahawks and 1 unit on +550 bet on the Seahawks future during the offseason.
I maintain money management by betting less than 5% of current total bankroll.
Money management requires self discipline.
"Self-discipline: is the ability to control one's feelings and overcome one's weaknesses; the ability to pursue what one thinks is right despite temptations to abandon it."

I have strong convincing arguments based on science, math and philosophy that defends the Seattle Seahawks.
Betting on intellectual reasons > Betting on emotional reasons
Solid physical evidence > Lack of physical evidence

1. Defense wins championships.
#11 Patriots offense vs #1 Seahawks defense
#9 Seahawks offense vs #13 Patriots defense
Patriots and Seahawks have a common opponent that defeated them this season, the Kansas City Cheifs.
Alex Smith performed against the Patriots defense:
CP/ATT:20/26 YDS:248 TD:3 INT:0
Alex Smith performed against the Seahawks defense:
CP/ATT:11/16 YDS:108 TD:0 INT:0
Tom Brady performed against the Cheifs defense:
CP/ATT:14/23 YDS:159 TD:1 INT:2
Russell Wilson performed against the Cheifs defense:
CP/ATT:20/32 YDS:178 TD:2 INT:0

2. Russell Wilson is 10-0 vs Super Bowl winning quarterbacks.

3. Strongest betting trends: In the history of the NFL, only 9 matchups has happened involving two #1 seeds at the super bowl. The NFC is 7-2 ATS.
There are three NFL Conference Championship OT winners in last 15 years and subsequently all of them won the Super Bowl. They are all from NFC, 2011 New York Giants, 2009 New Orleans Saints and 2007 NY Giants.

4. Fade the public advantage: The public is all over Patriots.
Sharps never judge a football team based on what they did last week.
Every year the public loses on the super bowl most of the time. You have to play the math.

5. +1 ATS advantage: Even if the Patriots win, I can only hope they win by 1 point to push my bet. When the line was at +1.5 I was hoping for the line to move to +2. But I'll take the +1 before it goes back down to a possible PK.

6. Weather factor: The Packers vs Seahawks, the rain negatively effected both Rodgers and Wilson. That's why Wilson performed poorly. The super bowl will be played in a dome stadium in Arizona. Weather will not be a factor and expect Wilson to perform well.

"To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." -Sun Tzu, The Art Of War

"All progress takes place outside the comfort zone." -Michael John Bobak

"All our Knowledge begins with the senses, proceeds then to the understanding, and ends with reason. There is nothing higher than reason." -Immanuel Kant

thorough and convincing information Gunshard
but they 2 ugly to win b2b super bowls




strong lean on Patriots -1 using that reasoning. And Tom Brady

[gauchojake]

I think the public perception is different than the betting public. Everyone I've spoken to thinks the Seahawks is going to win. Most of these people don't bet. I'm much more likely to fade those people.

I'm also surprised that people are giving the Seahawks defense all this credit when both Thomas and Sherman sustained pretty significant arm injuries.

[importmoon]

good point Gun...

[GunShard]

good point Gun...

Thanks! Good luck everyone.

[Plopowitz]

I hate not knowing what impact, if any, these injuries might have on the game. Too hard to tell.

[mikestu]

More money will be on Seattle by kickoff. You're ignorant. Doesn't matter if 60% is on NE. More money will be on Seattle.

http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/...-lines-pick-em

[Ninjamos]

I don't know why: for ME Pats are the favorites, but Hawks are gonna win this one.
The Super Bowl winning experience is truly underrated.

[GunShard]

This has been a close game.