[PutTogether]

I'm not very active at this site, so I ask for forgiveness in advance is this is an old, tired, or debunked idea. But just in case it isn't, I present the following.

Feel free discredit however you see fit.


First: 6 point Basic Strategy Teasers (also called Wong Teasers) work. This is a settled argument, and if you'd like a refresher on the full blown how and why, I suggest reading Teaser Bets in the NFL by Michael Shackleford. If you don't have the time or inclination, the basic idea is that a 6 point teaser that adjusts a line THROUGH the 3 and the 7 wins WAY more often than any random teaser. A line teased 6 points through the 3 and the 7 wins at a rate of 73.22%, while any random line teased 6 points only wins at around 68.3%

Second: they don't work quite as well as they used to, because teaser payout schedules have dropped from what they once were. (except at 5dimes)

Third: 5dimes fights Wong teasers by shading their lines to make it difficult or impossible to use 6 points to tease through the 7 and the 3.

For an example: A

As I type this, 5dimes as the Dallas Seattle game posted as:



Instead of using the +8/-8 line found everywhere else, they've inflated the line 1.5 points so that we can't tease Seattle down from -8 to -2. They don't want us to be able to go from -8 to -2 because we will have teased all the way through -7 and -3, which makes that leg of the teaser much more likely to win than any other random line teased. Going from -9.5 to -3.5 has much less value than going from -8 to -2.

What they have done though, is open up a different avenue of attack that is almost as vulnerable. By posting a line of +9.5 -125, we are now allowed to take the inflated line of 9.5 in a teaser without having to pay the inflated price of -125. Only the line matters once added to one of their teasers, the -125 ceases to be relevant, because the teaser will always pay according to the schedule of that particular teaser. (+100 for 2 teams, +180 for 3 teams, +300 for 4 teams)

We know that the CORRECT line for this particular game is actually 8, but by preventing us from teasing -8 down to -2, they have allowed us to tease 9.5 UP to 15.5, which is a full 7.5 points above the correct line of 8. They've allowed us to secure one leg of 7.5 point teaser at the price of a 6point teaser.

How can we exploit this? Using the chart below (again, credit to Wizard of Odds.com) we can see how often any random line teased 7.5 points (from the correct, or sharp, line) is expected to win. If you are so inclined, you could also use Shackleford's teaser equation of e^0.128×p/ (1+e^0.128×p).




We can see from the chart that any random, SHARP, line teased by 7.5 points should win 72.3 percent of the time. If we can find two games like the Dallas/Seattle game above (which shouldn't be hard since 5dimes will routinely shade lines by 1.5 points) we can assemble a 2 team teaser where each side is 7.5 points from the correct line, while only having to pay for 6 of the points.

If each leg of a 2 team teaser should win 72.3% of the time, then the entire teaser wins 52.2729% of the time. (.723*.723 = .522729)

Since a 2 team, 6 point teaser at 5dimes pays at +100, we get an even money payout with better than even money odds. We get an edge of 4.55%! The EV of a $100 bet becomes ($100*.522729) - ($100*.477271) = $4.55

We could also build a teaser using a combination of the standard Wong lines vs Shaded Wong lines. Since we know A true Wong leg teased 6 points wins at 73.22%, we can couple a Wong leg with a Shaded Wong leg and expect to win 52.95% of the time. For an edge of almost 6%!!! (.7322 * .7232 = .52952704)





TLDR version:

• 6 point Wong teasers work, especially with 5 dimes payout schedules
• A real Wong teaser leg needs to be teased 6 points and go all the way through the 3 AND the 7. (The correct, sharp, line needs to start as a favorite of -8.5, -8, -7.5, or as a dog of +1.5, +2, or +2.5)
• 5 dimes shades their lines to make lines like the ones above difficult, if not impossible, to find and tease
• If you see a game where they've shaded the line by 1.5 points from correct in order to prevent a 'Wongable' line, you can build a leg ALMOST as good as a real Wong leg by teasing their shaded line up, and ending up 7.5 points from the sharp line for the price of 6.

[POOLSIDE]

Interesting. Have you, by any chance, gone back and calculated the if results for the last season or two?

There may not be a ton of opportunities though, as having two games in the same week that are both shaded may not be the most common occurrence. That's off the top of my head though, and could be way off.

[2daBank]

Interesting. Have you, by any chance, gone back and calculated the if results for the last season or two?

There may not be a ton of opportunities though, as having two games in the same week that are both shaded may not be the most common occurrence. That's off the top of my head though, and could be way off.

they do it a lot, id guess there a lot of weeks there more than 1, they do it with the dogs as well making them +1-125 instead of +2 or +2.5, of coarse doesnt really help for the purpose of this.. but the really nice thing with 5d is i believe you can leave a leg of the teaser open (pretty sure that the case, i never do that but for this seems like a decent idea) so you could always just take the one you see this week then wait for the next..

[PutTogether]

Interesting. Have you, by any chance, gone back and calculated the if results for the last season or two?

There may not be a ton of opportunities though, as having two games in the same week that are both shaded may not be the most common occurrence. That's off the top of my head though, and could be way off.

I haven't tested for last season. The numbers of Shackleford's that I used were from 1994 through the 2012 seasons - for whatever that is worth.

Regarding 5dimes and their shaded lines: The good news is that if they aren't shaded, they might be 'Wongable.' I don't have any concrete data to back it up, but their MO seems to be making minor adjustments on lines of 1 and 7, while absolutely HATING lines of 2 or 8.

I do know they seem to hate any 8 line with a passion, and they want to shade them up past the 9 to 9.5. My guess is to make it harder to tease to any three. I think they want to see you try to go from -9.5 to -3.5 which is still -EV. They don't seem to account for going the other way, and cruising all the way through the 15 to 15.5. This leaves you a touchdown plus a half-point above the sharp line, and it only cost you 6 points to do it. If they STOPPED doing this to their lines of '8' then they automatically leave you with a line that can be wonged back down to 2.

They also dick around with the 1.5 lines. Lines on 5dimes that SHOULD be 1.5 immediately go to 1 with weird juice, so they can't be teased through the 7. Not much you can do there. But when they get a line that SHOULD be a 2, they go to 3.5 with silly juice. They don't want a 2 line sitting anywhere because it can get teased up through the 3 and 7. They prevent this by juicing any sharp 2 line into a 3.5 line. This lets you go up to 9.5, and end up a full 7.5 pts away from the sharp line for the price of a 6pt move. If they stopped that shading, you're right back to a line that can be Wonged. It's a win-win

There is no real solid +EV way to fight them moving their 7s to 7.5s, or their 1.5s to 1s (unless of course you like the side of one of those bets that didn't get the extra juice tacked on). But with 2 or 8 lines, they either shade them hard, or leave them vulnerable to a Wong Teaser. Either one of those is ok with me.

As I'm typing this, they've left legs for a good teaser up on their board. They have Texans at +2.5, which is a perfect Wong as you can tease to 8.5 while going through the 3 and 7. Should create a leg that wins about 73% They've also still left Dallas at 9.5. If they leave it there, tease to 15.5 and you have a tease ALMOST as good as a Wong (win at 72.33%). If they move it back to 8, you have a real Wong.

Basically it is a counter attack strategy we can use to salvage lost teaser EV.

I'll admit though, that there is an argument that could be made saying the two 2.5s they've left on the board really should be 3s. (and therefore not Wonged) There is probably more value there just taking a straight bet one on of the 2.5 sides you like the best rather than wonging.

[Optional]

They don't seem to account for going the other way, and cruising all the way through the 15 to 15.5.

If this is all you bet there I think there is a chance it would be accounted for by limiting you.

Smart idea though.

[slacker00]

Yes. If nothing else, it's a new opportunity. Tease UP at 5Dimes or tease down other places, more options on the table.