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Tampa @ Atlanta tonight…….
Is it just me that when i feel like investing in an NFL game i always find myself not actually capping the game, but seeing what the public is doing and going opposite of said public, or wonderring to myself will the NFL let this one play out as intended or hedge?
Is this what's become of NFL, because it seems that way to me. Almost nothing to do with print out data, analysis or intangibles anymore, but about public and where is $ at.
Tampa +6.5 is the play
why??Originally Posted by strictlypaypal
Maybe there are angles to support Tampa, but how can you use the "Because they need a win" logic to rationalize betting money on a team that cant score over 20 pts and that has lost to a team that started a back up qb both games..I can logically predict ATl to score more than 30 tonite..what makes anyone think TB can hang within a TD? And on a short week after losing to the Rams?
i don't think its because tampa has to win, tampa is going to be a pest tonight though and with the public smashing ATL that's enough for me to make a standard play with the 6.5
How can you say ATL will score 30 when Tampa hasnt given up more than 20 and atl scored 10 against cincy... And atl has a terrible defense so if you dont think tampa can score your mistaken. Tampa has played 2 top defenses.. people are quick to forget how good St louis D was supposed to be... Not to mention how good Carolina's D is.. If you can logically predict atlanta to score 30, you need to work on your logic. BOL
ATL -6.5 land of the squares
Tampa did play 2 home games against a 2nd string QB and a 3rd string QB. That should be taken into account when looking at the points they have given up.
Derek Anderson is good enough to hang. Just saying if you assume ATL is going to score 30, and you Assume Tampa wont score over 20 against a HORRIBLE defense, your a consistent losing bettor
OK lets re-think...Does ATL lose to the rams at home with the same line up the rams played last week?
Sounds like a 30-7 type of game if they played..The Bengals are better than a Cam-less Panthers and the Rams..and that was a road game
This is a divisional game at home, atl has all the weapons to blow TB away and after last year I doubt ATL takes these games softly, offensively ATL can do whatever they want, TB is limited to running
assuming what a team would have done to a past opponent of who they're playing and using it to cap is absolutely the worst thing you can do.
Wagering on crappy teams in bad spots is worse...4 days ago TB lost to the Rams and we're learning their best offensive weapon is probably not playing or playing with limitation.
ATL may not be the broncos..but they beat the Saints at home and play well at home in general..What exactly makes you think TB does a complete 180 and turns into an offensive juggernaut over a 4 day period..Its not like I'm saying 7 weeks ago TB lost to the Rams.
Last edited by BeanTownClown88; 09-18-14 at 12:42 PM.
You are a consistently losing bettor with your mentality. Things change week to week. The browns just beat the saints, the chiefs almost beat the broncos. You probably used your idiot logic with those games as well. Best of luck
not to mention tampa was in position to win both of their loses. If you dont think tampa can score your sadly mistaken. They have very good offensive players, and if mcown can do anything, they can easily post 30 on atl
Idiot logic? I usually break even on the year, never had a bad loss..who are you to judge..you must have made it huge in sports betting to come off like that.
You're the one betting a team ravaged by injury on their front lines and who can't beat a team with back up quarterbacks..This "idiot" logic worked fading the vikings vs new england last week as the vikings were without their best player..we'll let the game speak for itself, you obviously havent lost on TB yet this year.
Better hope Mcown can do "something" because we're nearly 1/4 of the way into the season and he hasn't done shit
I dont break even in a year. I win. And i do so by going against donks like you that take previous games into all of their considerations. Tampa has weapons. They played 2 very good defenses to start the season. They hung around in both games. Atl Defense has given up A LOT of points and has no running D, which is one of tampas strengths. They match up very well vs atl. You dont win consistently by betting on the best team. I have not bet on tampa this year because i dont like the spreads. I like a +6.5 spread on a team that has played 2 very good defenses very tough. Now to turn around and play one of the worst in the league, when they would have covered 6.5 in either of their losses, yup. They may not cover, but bet with your "logic" all season long, and thats why you break even. Bet sharply, and look for value, and thats how you can try to turn and make a profit. I lost for many years before i became consistently profitable, and its because i used to bet like you. But now as much as it pains me sometimes to take some lines, you have to bet with your head.
If it pains you, wouldn't it make sense to lay off until Sunday? There will be 14 other games to bet.
TB gave up nearly 400 yards of offense to STL and Carolina..Have you seen ATL at home recently? They will put up close to 600 yards if TB shows up with gaps on both the O and D line due to injury. ATL also has one of the best home fields in the NFL..I don't bet the favorite every time and I wish I had spots like this every week but it's a rarity. But when the opponent just had a bad loss, hasn't shown anything promising and has bad injuries with a sub par QB...Yea I will take ATL at home by less than a TD all day. BOL and if ATL wins I promise not to insult your intelligence or call you donkey or w.e you like to say to people on here
I have ATL -6 after reading this thread -the only reason for taking TB is the "public" is on ATL -- good luck with that.
I love the over here, both teams will score tonight
You read this thread and that was the only reason you came up with for Tampa Bay?
I think some of the more important points were lost among the name calling and down talking, but look again because they're in there.
Atlanta can't play worth a shit outside a dome. Look at their record when playing outdoors, 1-9 last 10 games. Atlanta can score a lot of points at home, that's why they tend to be big favorites at home and dogs more often than not on the road. With how crappy the Falcons D is and the fact that TB has a mediocre D, this game has OVER written all over it.
So I reread the thread not one poster put up a valid argument as to why TB is the play
There are some valid reasons to take TB but for me it really comes down to ATL def showing up this week or not? Good teams adjust and we're barely getting into Week 3.
I think ATL defense finally shows up here in Prime Time in front of their fans and show the world why McCown is a backup QB.
I don't feel comfortable on this side of the betting majority but I would feel less comfortable holding a TB ticket in this spot.
ATL -6.5 for me.
The fact that Tampa has played one good and one great defensive team was mentioned. There's a reason besides the public being on Atlanta. The fact that Atlanta hasn't stopped anyone on defense yet was mentioned. The fact that Tampa hasn't yet lost a game by enough to cover this spread was mentioned. The fact that Tampa hasn't allowed more than twenty points in a game was mentioned. There are probably others, those were found at a quick scan.
LOLhe didnt look very hard.. When someone is like that i dont know why they even read the threads. They are sold on their pick and they will not change, whats the point of even reading a thread
I agree nick, and the public is on the over big, i usually just stay away, i decided to lay a bit on Tampa o20
If Derek Anderson is "good enough to hang," what is Matt Ryan at home? Ryan is an elite QB at the Georgia Dome. Carolina was up 17-0 into the 4th quarter, that game was not as close as the final score. Then to lose another home game and to a 3rd string QB? The line stinks to high heaven, I think we can all agree, BUT the public doesn't lose every game. If they did there would be a lot less books in business. Good luck with whatever direction you choose.
You make some fascinating assertions -TB played 2 offences featuring backup qb's & their D is in the bottom half of the league. I am going to assume STL is the "good" D & by that I mean good against the pass but 29th vs the run(you know TB strength)TB still lost .Let's be clear
everything you say about TB occurred while playing at home & nothing you mentioned is a compelling reason to back them on the road.
TB has lost the last twice SU as 4.5 point favourites and every talking head media guy has now dropped off them. I would say a hell of a lot of casual bettors are following suit.
As a rookie NFL bettor I'm having a lot of trouble capping this game from a purely objective point of view, but I'm pretty sure I'm missing something.
Tampa Bay were obviously favoured for a reason in Weeks 1 & 2, and what I'd like to know is how much blind luck affected those results. It's something that is hard to determine but is usually a factor.
I'm leaning Tampa Bay here but I missed the 7.5 line and right now it's hard to pull the trigger on 6.5. I don't buy points, so I might have to pass.
No White or Martin tonight
Good lord, you do not get it. I don't care who you bet on or for what reason. I don't care if reasons I provide, or reasons anyone else provides for that matter, make sense to you or not. Do not care.
What at I do care is that we were trying to have a constructive conversation about a football game and you claimed the only reason that anyone had provided to bet Tampa Bay was because the public is on Atlanta. That's insane and counter productive. If there was no reason in the world to bet Tampa, why would anyone be on them?
I can tell you this. Tampa was a favorite to open the season against a Carolina team that won what, twelve games last year? Was it thirteen? Vegas and several others obviously see something there. I'm not saying they're a world beater or even a playoff team, but they aren't an auto fade joke like the Raiders appear to be. To assume that the Bucs will just never come together is a disservice to a roster with some legitimate talent being coached by a guy who isnt a slouch. Did you watch the first two games? Even with no offensive coordinator, they were clearly a team on the precipice of taking a significant step forward. This is their first week with an oc, and I expect the results to show up against a defense that I could rush for fifty yards against.
I get it. Atlanta can score in the dome. No one seems to be disputing that. However, several of us think Tampa will be able to score enough to keep this within a touchdown. That's what I'm hoping at least.
well GL is all I can say
they are who we thought they were
Sure looking that way. Oops.
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