Two games that I'm narrowed in on right now. Please share feedback.
over 44 BUF/SD.
Both teams only have 1 turnover this season, so that naturally is good for higher scoring. These two teams are holding the two shortest avg yards/punt this season, so opponents have better starting positions. SD converted 49% of 3rd downs last year (highest in nfl). Buff & SD avg'd combined 46 ppg for and 46 ppg against last season. Also, Ryan Mathews is out so Rivers may rely more on the throw. A 27-20 final covers this spread.
Atlanta -6.5
Fav is 5-1-1 ATS last 7 meetings between ATL & TB. Home team is 4-1-1 in last 6. Falcons are 4-0 ATS last 4 Thursday night games, and TNF games generally seem to lend advantage to the home team, especially in divisional games. Not to mention the obvious talent gap on offense, (Matty Ice & co > McCown & co), Doug Martin is banged up and if he does suit up I could see him putting up < 3ypc. ATL plays well at home and should pull away from this early.