Hey gang. There are two picks I'm taking a stab at this week - but until week 6, my picks are limited till I get the right amount of data. But I'm also the type of person that'll observe the live betting section waiting for the right value/pick. To tha picks...
Eagles -7 1H -- I'm sure were all curious to see how Nick Foles turns out this year, I know I sure as hell am. But there is a reason I'm backing this (what I still consider) "questionable" quarterback, and it's because of Chip Kelly. The Eagles haven't opened at home since 2010 when they lost to the Packers, and I can't say oh they'll turn around this season, cause Andy Reid isn't around anymore. I do expect that fast tempo offence and Kelly's game plan to score on the first or second drive of the game, though. Although Philly was dead last in passing defense last year, the Jags were T-7th worst team in the league last season in passing TD's allowed. They were also tied for last in sacks last season with only 31, while the leader (CAR) had 60 something sacks. Not too worried about Philly being dead last in that category though because, wait give me a second to look up whose playing QB for Jax. Chad Henne. (Bortals not playing as most of you already know). Tebow is owned in more fantasy leagues than this guy for crying out loud..no, seriously. How this guy will do on the road, who hasn't even faced the Eagles in 3 plus years? I don't know, but with that 10+ point spread and his top wide out having to sit the first game, it doesn't look good, at all. Eagles up a touchdown at-least, at the half.
Bears -190 1H -- minus four for a first half spread is a foolish number to me, but at long as Buffalo doesn't put up 14 in the first quarter and the Bears are not to be found, this pick should hit no problem. Again, I don't like that number four. Well, Chicago has, unlike the Eagles, opened up at home for four straight years, this being their fifth years in a row. They have won their last four week 1 games, but this is about the first half. Taking a look at the numbers, the Bears are 2-2 in these last four week 1 home games, winning the 1st half against the Colts and Falcons...but losing the other two to the Lions and Bengals last year. But last year was Trestman's first year, giving him a victory on his coaching debt with all due respect, coming from a late fourth quarter hook up from Cutler to Marshall to get away with the win. Marshall had most of the targets in that game (8), and the next guy down in catches was Jefferys with 5. I'm a Chicago guy, I do NOT bet my hard earned money with my flag on my shoulder, but as the season went on, and how Trestman has evolved the game plan for Chicago, I don't see the game being too close vs Buffalo. Like the under of 24 1H as well.
Woah, two embarrassing picks but yet again -- the bookies know what their doing, and it's only week 1. At least I'm not afraid to hide my picks like half of you, that I've noticed.
I've managed to grab the Ravens +14.5 @ -110 LIVE BET.
Should be it, might grab a little Sunday Night action if I find value in the numbers.
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Week 1 football + 2 small write ups
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