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So far going into next week we have four teams that have lost 3 games ATS: GB, NO, TB, and JAC. I am looking to start with GB. If they win then I will take NO later that evening. If not I will stick it out with GB until they cover or I bust. This will depend on how PIT does against CAR tonight. If PIT loses ATS then I may take them vs TB next week.
Miami screws me. I have $43 and change left in profit. I will put it on Pittsburg +150. If I lose then I am back to $1,000. Next week I will start in with my main strategy. I will not chase any losses if I lose tonight.
PIT comes through for me. I would have been better off not betting at all this weekend as I did not fully chase my losses witht he PIT play. I started the weekend with $1,120 and now have $1,100. Not tragic by any means. I did not want to risk any more the $43 in profit I had remaining in case PIT lost. Next week will officially start the plan that I outlined in the beginning. I will probably play GB.
Chase Tracker 2014 AFC
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 NE L 16.5 W 27 L 8
NYJ L 3..5 W 0.5 L 8
BUF W 10.5 W 19 L 13
MIA W 16.5 L 19 L 24.5
PIT L 2.5 L 17 W 21
BAL L 8 W 17 W 1
CIN W 8 W 9.5 W 19
CLE W 2.5 W 7 L 1
HOU W 7 W 13 L 13
IND W 0.5 L 5.5 W 20
JAC L 6 L 26 L 20
TEN W 19 L 19 L 19
DEN L 0.5 L 6 L 2
SD W 1.5 W 13.5 W 13
KC L 19 W 6 W 24.5
OAK W 3.5 L 13 W 8
NFC
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 NYG L 14 L 12 W 13
PHI W 6 W 5.5 L 1
WAS L 8 W 26 W 1
DAL L 8 W 19 W 2
GB L 15.5 L 0.5 L 12
CHI L 10.5 W 15.5 W 8
DET W 14 L 16 W 12
MIN W 30.5 L 27 W 0.5
NO L 6 L 7 L 0.5
ATL W 6 L 9.5 W 35
CAR W 10.5 W 16 L 21
TB L 10.5 L 6 L 35
SF W 8 L 15.5 L 11.5
SEA W 15.5 L 13.5 W 2
STL L 30.5 W 6 L 2
ARI L 1.5 W 12 W 11.5
Greenbay is my first official system play. I have them -1 vs CHI, risking $35. (-110). This is a grand martingale so for each loss I will multiply that number by 2.1 and add another $35. My target is 40% ROI. My 10 point teaser efforts have given me a 10% head start. If GB wins then I will jump on NO for the late game. DEN is on a bye. I have my eye on them as well. The chase system is thin at only 4 tiers deep. As I grow larger I will probably opt for more tiers and a smaller return. At this level though, if I can get 40% ROIs in the NFL, the NBA, ad the MLB I can compound them in to 274% ROI per year. This is a very high risk and aggressive plan. I already hit 40% in my MLB experiment.
Thank you for your interest. Hopefully I can deliver you some good results. Chase systems are extremely risky, even when you have an advantage.Originally Posted by SharpAngles
following.
good luck this season.
Hey brother, are you doing your correlation system again this year???? That was good stuff.
I am...however I'm taking a different approach to it.
Nfl.com is screwing me though because of offensive line stats haven't been available at all this season.
I'll shoot you a private message later this week explaining in greater detail.
Greenbay takes care of business. This allows me to start my second chase in the same week. I am checking the line on the Saints now. Jacksonville is a strong system choice, but the square in me is too chicken.
I took the Saints -3 for $35.
TB pulls off the upset. My system is 2-0 on the first tier chase. It takes guts to take an underdog like TB. I will not take a team like this unless they are my only option but it is still gratifying to see the idea working.
Saints looked completely incompetent in the 1rst half. this does not look good. The game is not over but 0-24 is a deep hole to dig out of, especially in enemy territory. They face TB at home next week. Hopefully that game is a different story. Should have enough time to get in on the Denver game if NO pulls it out.
Week 5 I am continuing to chase with the Saints. -10 is a big number but NO is at home. I have $108.50 on this game. Here is the updated "chase tracker" chart.Chase Tracker 2014 AFC
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 NE L 16.5 W 27 L 8 L 29.5
NYJ L 3..5 W 0.5 L 8 L 7
BUF W 10.5 W 19 L 13 L 2..5
MIA W 16.5 L 19 L 24.5 W 20
PIT L 2.5 L 17 W 21 L 10.5
BAL L 8 W 17 W 1 W 25
CIN W 8 W 9.5 W 19 BYE
CLE W 2.5 W 7 L 1 BYE
HOU W 7 W 13 L 13 W 2.5
IND W 0.5 L 5.5 W 20 W 16.5
JAC L 6 L 26 L 20 L 5
TEN W 19 L 19 L 19 L 16.5
DEN L 0.5 L 6 L 2 BYE
SD W 1.5 W 13.5 W 13 W 5
KC L 19 W 6 W 24.5 W 29.5
OAK W 3.5 L 13 W 8 L 20
NFC
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 NYG L 14 L 12 W 13 W 34
PHI W 6 W 5.5 L 1 L 1..5
WAS L 8 W 26 W 1 L 34
DAL L 8 W 19 W 2 W 24
GB L 15.5 L 0.5 L 12 W 20
CHI L 10.5 W 15.5 W 8 L 20
DET W 14 L 16 W 12 W 2.5
MIN W 30.5 L 27 W 0.5 W 17.5
NO L 6 L 7 L 0.5 L 24
ATL W 6 L 9.5 W 35 L 17.5
CAR W 10.5 W 16 L 21 L 25
TB L 10.5 L 6 L 35 W 10.5
SF W 8 L 15.5 L 11.5 W 2.5
SEA W 15.5 L 13.5 W 2 BYE
STL L 30.5 W 6 L 2 BYE
ARI L 1.5 W 12 W 11.5 BYE
There are some interesting trends going on. As I said earlier, if NO covers over the Buccs I will start a chase on DEN. JAC has now lost 4 in a row. It is tough to pull the trigger on them but if they lose a couple more ATS it may be too much for me to ignore. SD has won 4 in a row and may be a good fade candidate. CIN, DAL and KC all have 3 wins ATS in a row and are good fade candidates. I would look to fade KC and DAL before CIN because those two teams are overachieving and I would expect a regression from them. CIN is performing like people expected them to. While a regression is probably in the cards I would fade the other two before I fade them. The last trend that I find very interesting is NE. it is only two losses in a row ATS but KC handed them an ass-whooping. This team is generally over-valued, riding on 3 superbowl rings and a weak AFC east conference that they have bullied for years. I expect some wild volatility from this team. People are talking like this is the end for Brady. When the blood is in the streets that is when you buy. Well the blood is in the streets for the Patriots. I am locked in a chase with the Saints, but this is a strong psychological trend and is exactly what I look for.
Chase Tracker 2014 AFC
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 NE L 16.5 W 27 L 8 L 29.5 W 28.5
NYJ L 3..5 W 0.5 L 8 L 7 L 23.5
BUF W 10.5 W 19 L 13 L 2..5 L 7.5
MIA W 16.5 L 19 L 24.5 W 20 BYE
PIT L 2.5 L 17 W 21 L 10.5 W 2.5
BAL L 8 W 17 W 1 W 25 L 2.5
CIN W 8 W 9.5 W 19 BYE L 28.5
CLE W 2.5 W 7 L 1 BYE W 1
HOU W 7 W 13 L 13 W 2.5 W 2
IND W 0.5 L 5.5 W 20 W 16.5 W 2.5
JAC L 6 L 26 L 20 L 5 L 2.5
TEN W 19 L 19 L 19 L 16.5 L 1
DEN L 0.5 L 6 L 2 BYE W 11
SD W 1.5 W 13.5 W 13 W 5 W 23.5
KC L 19 W 6 W 24.5 W 29.5 L 0.5
OAK W 3.5 L 13 W 8 L 20 BYE
NFC
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 NYG L 14 L 12 W 13 W 34 W 5.5
PHI W 6 W 5.5 L 1 L 1..5 W 2
WAS L 8 W 26 W 1 L 34 L 2
DAL L 8 W 19 W 2 W 24 W 2
GB L 15.5 L 0.5 L 12 W 20 W 22
CHI L 10.5 W 15.5 W 8 L 20 L 6
DET W 14 L 16 W 12 W 2.5 L 7.5
MIN W 30.5 L 27 W 0.5 W 17.5 L 22
NO L 6 L 7 L 0.5 L 24 L 5.5
ATL W 6 L 9.5 W 35 L 17.5 L 5.5
CAR W 10.5 W 16 L 21 L 25 W 6
TB L 10.5 L 6 L 35 W 10.5 W 5.5
SF W 8 L 15.5 L 11.5 W 2.5 W 0.5
SEA W 15.5 L 13.5 W 2 BYE W 2
STL L 30.5 W 6 L 2 BYE L 2
ARI L 1.5 W 12 W 11.5 BYE L 11
The Saints have now lost 5 in a row ATS. Definitely making me nervous. Denver came through. If you look at all the games I highlighted in red from week 4, if you had gone contrary to whatever result with 10 point teasers you would have won 10 out of 11 that were eligible for 10 point teasers. NO has a bye week this week so I need to decide whether I want to try something or just wait for the next Saints games. I only have two tiers left so it is a pretty big decision.
The Saints have been killing me and looking ahead to their next two games does not instill me with confidence. Paper trading is much different then playing with the real thing. There is less emotions attached as you know there are no real consequences. I only have two more shots to get this right so I am switching to my 10 point teaser strategy to try and pull out of the skid. Dallas has been overshooting expectations for 4 weeks. Their defense was supposed to be total crap according to what I read at the beginning of the season. I think the Seahawks will take it to the Cowboys as they are monsters at home. This fits my overall theory in that the Cowboys flew under the radar and beat expectations and are now due for a fall ATS. My second pick does not fit the theory. I am taking the Broncos over the Jets. The Jets lost ATS by 23.5 points and are due for a rebound, but just don't see that rebound coming against this Broncos team. The last pick for this teaser was the hardest choice and it has taken several hours to come up with. I finally settled on the Ravens. They lost ATS and the Buccs have overshot expectations. I listened to one capper saying that the Buccs have momentum due to their strong showing against NO and their win over the Steelers the week before. I don't buy it. They brought their A game against the Saints who will most likely win that division. I think they are due for a letdown and the Ravens are just the team to deliver it to them. This game is under the radar but it fits my theory perfectly. The teaser is SEA +2, DEN pk, and BAL +6.5. This is my third tier bet: $350.70 to win $292.25. If I win I will then be able to start chasing the Saints again at tier one next week or take another team. It is important to note that I seriously considered the Jaguars this week as well. They are due to cover the spread and are playing the Titans. That is as good of a chance as they are going to get at covering the spread. Ultimately though, I just can't put my trust into them because they are just so horrible. My tier 3 bet is in. Now it is time to cross my fingers and hope that it covers.
What if two teams that just lost 3 in a row ATS play each other?
look for a different game or ride the one you like best.
In the beginning of this game I thought this thing was sealed. Both my 1:00 pm games won ATS with no extra points needed. WHen the Seahawks went up by 10 in the beginning I was feeling pretty good. Seahawks lose for me again. They killed my season last year. I have one tier left this time. Not a good situation. Hopefully I can pull out of this next week. If I go down I will complete the season with paper trades to see how it turns out. Will I go all in on NO next week vs DET or try another teaser? Not sure yet.
My 10 point teaser put me one tier behind instead of pulling me out of a scary situation. Now my season is on the line. I decided to pull the trigger with the Saints. They are the last team yet to beat the spread in any games this year. If I fail I will continue to track this for the season. Hopefully that does not happen because I want to demonstrate that this does indeed work. It is not some magic formula that will automatically win every time. It is an edge, just like counting cards. There are times when variance can turn against you despite having an edge. No matter what happens on Sunday I am convinced that this system does give me an edge. If fall on my face several times I will have to reconsider. Saint +3 (120) for $645.46.
Please note that the -120 odds on these last two bets have skewed the grand martingale numbers a bit. Hopefully I can win and keep on plugging. I still expect to hit 40% ROI if I manage to cover.
Chase Tracker 2014 AFC
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 NE L 16.5 W 27 L 8 L 29.5 W 28.5 W 15
NYJ L 3..5 W 0.5 L 8 L 7 L 23.5 L 4
BUF W 10.5 W 19 L 13 L 2..5 L 7.5 L 15
MIA W 16.5 L 19 L 24.5 W 20 BYE L 2
PIT L 2.5 L 17 W 21 L 10.5 W 2.5 L 20
BAL L 8 W 17 W 1 W 25 L 2.5 W 28
CIN W 8 W 9.5 W 19 BYE L 28.5 L 7.5
CLE W 2.5 W 7 L 1 BYE W 1 W 20
HOU W 7 W 13 L 13 W 2.5 W 2 L 2.5
IND W 0.5 L 5.5 W 20 W 16.5 W 2.5 W 2.5
JAC L 6 L 26 L 20 L 5 L 2.5 W 2
TEN W 19 L 19 L 19 L 16.5 L 1 L 2
DEN L 0.5 L 6 L 2 BYE W 11 W 4
SD W 1.5 W 13.5 W 13 W 5 W 23.5 L 5.5
KC L 19 W 6 W 24.5 W 29.5 L 0.5 BYE
OAK W 3.5 L 13 W 8 L 20 BYE W 5.5
NFC
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 NYG L 14 L 12 W 13 W 34 W 5.5 L 27
PHI W 6 W 5.5 L 1 L 1..5 W 2 W 27
WAS L 8 W 26 W 1 L 34 L 2 L 5
DAL L 8 W 19 W 2 W 24 W 2 W 17
GB L 15.5 L 0.5 L 12 W 20 W 22 W 2
CHI L 10.5 W 15.5 W 8 L 20 L 6 W 17
DET W 14 L 16 W 12 W 2.5 L 7.5 W 14
MIN W 30.5 L 27 W 0.5 W 17.5 L 22 L 14
NO L 6 L 7 L 0.5 L 24 L 5.5 BYE
ATL W 6 L 9.5 W 35 L 17.5 L 5.5 L 17
CAR W 10.5 W 16 L 21 L 25 W 6 W 7.5
TB L 10.5 L 6 L 35 W 10.5 W 5.5 L 28
SF W 8 L 15.5 L 11.5 W 2.5 W 0.5 W 11.5
SEA W 15.5 L 13.5 W 2 BYE W 2 L 17
STL L 30.5 W 6 L 2 BYE L 2 L 11.5
ARI L 1.5 W 12 W 11.5 BYE L 11 W 5
There are some interesting trends developing. One that I wanted to mention is a bit if de ja vu from last year. I remember going into last year reading how the Panther's defense was completely awful and they had done absolutely nothing to improve it in the draft or free agency. When they season got rolling this much maligned defense kicked some serious ass. I don't know if this was a one time deal but Dallas just did the same thing against the Seahawks. I thought for sure Dallas was going to get beat in this game, it was only a question of by how much. I was drinking the koolaid. Dallas played the Seahawks hard last year too. I think this could have been a revenge game for them. Anyways, in the future when I hear there is a team who has not done squat to improve their defense, or something to this affect and the media is all hating on that team I will be looking to fade the media. That being said, Dallas has been on a winning streak ATS. If they were flying under the radar their win over the Seahawks has eliminated any stealth they had. They are due for a fall ATS. The other current win streaks to watch for a reversal would be IND and SF. SD finally lost ATS to OAK. There are several losing streaks ATS due for a reversal. I am riding NO with my season on the line. That makes me nervous but with them having a bye and DET having some injuries I could not ask for much more. +3 is a decent line. NYJ, BUF, TEN, WAS, ATL, AND STL are all in losing streaks ATS of 3 or more.
I managed to squeak this one out. Live to fight another day. Many of the teams I was tracking on losing streak ATS ended up covering this week. CIN, ATL, and BUF remain. I think I may go with BUF vs NYJ next week. ATL and CIN are in skids as well. BUF is in a 4 game skid ATS so it is my top choice at this point. They are also facing the Jets. I feel better about going with BUF facing the Jets then I do with CIN facing BAL or ATL facing DET.
I have been updating my chart and have noticed a few more trends. The first and most notable is that the line apparently moved to pk on the NO vs DET game. This would be another loss ATS for NO. I bought in early at +3 and I will use that number on my chart since I managed to break the losing streak with that number. I almost decided to fade SF last night but decided that I was happy to ride out this week with a W. Wish I had. DEN snaps SF's 3 game win streak ATS in a beatdown. DAL has won 6 games in a row ATS and are now prime fade candidates. I have not studied win streaks that closely but they should react roughly the same as losing streaks. The spread is all about maintaining balance. 6 wins ATS is out of balance. DAL was very undervalued coming into this season and I bought into the hype that they were supposed to suck. I believe that the general public has caught on by now that this is not the case and the spreads should start to adjust accordingly. I believe they will overcompensate. I do not like betting against a hot team... ...it's the square in me, but this streak is becoming so lopsided that I can not ignore it. WAS is in a 4 game losing streak ATS. I will have to look at their opposition. At the moment BUF vs NYJ is still my top choice for next week.
I retract my statement about DAL. Apparently I had a math error in my chart. Week 5 should have been a loss and I marked it as a win. The chart will be updated with this correction. I am waiting for tonight's game before I post the chart for this week.
I need to go back through the chart with a fine tooth comb apparently. BUF won ATS in week 5 ATS and I had it marked as a loss. I logged their opponent, DET correctly. This is the second mistake of this nature I have found. I will go back through and make sure everything is accurate. This changes who I will take next week.
Made corrections. Here is the updated chart.Chase Tracker 2014 AFC
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 NE L 16.5 W 27 L 8 L 29.5 W 28.5 W 15 L 9
NYJ L 3..5 W 0.5 L 8 L 7 L 23.5 L 4 W 9
BUF W 10.5 W 19 L 13 L 2..5 W 7.5 L 15 L 6
MIA W 16.5 L 19 L 24.5 W 20 BYE L 2 W 16
PIT L 2.5 L 17 W 21 L 10.5 W 2.5 L 20
BAL L 8 W 17 W 1 W 25 L 2.5 W 28 W 15
CIN W 8 W 9.5 W 19 BYE L 28.5 L 7.5 L 24
CLE W 2.5 W 7 L 1 BYE W 1 W 20 L 22
HOU W 7 W 13 L 13 W 2.5 W 2 L 2.5
IND W 0.5 L 5.5 W 20 W 16.5 W 2.5 W 2.5 W 24
JAC L 6 L 26 L 20 L 5 L 2.5 W 2 W 22
TEN W 19 L 19 L 19 L 16.5 L 1 L 2 W 5
DEN L 0.5 L 6 L 2 BYE W 11 W 4 W 17.5
SD W 1.5 W 13.5 W 13 W 5 W 23.5 L 5.5 L 6
KC L 19 W 6 W 24.5 W 29.5 L 0.5 BYE W 6
OAK W 3.5 L 13 W 8 L 20 BYE W 5.5 L 8
NFC
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 NYG L 14 L 12 W 13 W 34 W 5.5 L 27 L 5.5
PHI W 6 W 5.5 L 1 L 1..5 W 2 W 27 BYE
WAS L 8 W 26 W 1 L 34 L 2 L 5 L 5
DAL L 8 W 19 W 2 W 24 L 2 W 17 W 5.5
GB L 15.5 L 0.5 L 12 W 20 W 22 W 2 W 14
CHI L 10.5 W 15.5 W 8 L 20 L 6 W 17 L 16
DET W 14 L 16 W 12 W 2.5 L 7.5 W 14 L 2*
MIN W 30.5 L 27 W 0.5 W 17.5 L 22 L 14 W 6
NO L 6 L 7 L 0.5 L 24 L 5.5 BYE W 2*
ATL W 6 L 9.5 W 35 L 17.5 L 5.5 L 17 L 15
CAR W 10.5 W 16 L 21 L 25 W 6 W 7.5 L 14
TB L 10.5 L 6 L 35 W 10.5 W 5.5 L 28 BYE
SF W 8 L 15.5 L 11.5 W 2.5 W 0.5 W 11.5 L 17.5
SEA W 15.5 L 13.5 W 2 BYE W 2 L 17 L 9
STL L 30.5 W 6 L 2 BYE L 2 L 11.5 W 9
ARI L 1.5 W 12 W 11.5 BYE L 11 W 5 W 8
After making corrections to my chart my plan changed. ATL and CIN became my top early game picks. I decided to go with CIN because ATL has a bye week coming up. If CIN loses they have JAC coming up which should help them beat the spread. I grabbed CIN at -1.5. I was hoping they woyuld actually be a dog for this game. The line has moved from its opener of -2.5. I am risking $35. If I win then I will look to take NO as the official goldsheet record has them as a loss even though I won with them last week. I will then look towards WAS if they win. IND is also a good fade candidate right now. I do not like to bet against hot teams but they have won 5 ATS. That tide should turn.
I've been watching the line movement on CIN. The line opened at -2.5 and moved as low as pk. It is back to -1 at the moment. This tells me the Pendulum is at work. Vegas is very good at pegging the public sentiment but when they get it wrong the line movement typically reveals the way the public is leaning. An opening line of -2.5 tells me that Vegas ranks the Ravens just slightly higher then the Bengals. Generally speaking, evenly matched teams should open with the home team having a -3 point home field advantage. This could be debated but it is generally how I gauge how the two teams are being rated. In order for this line to drop from -2.5 to pk means someone is buying the Ravens. It could be sharp money but I suspect it is squares in this case. CIN has not looked themselves lately and people have been burned with them. The Ravens have been playing well. I would expect any square to take the Ravens. I can say this with confidence because I consider myself pretty square and I would lean the Ravens if I was not playing a system. The fear I feel in making this play tells me I am on the right track. The more courage it takes to place a bet usually I find the more likely it is the trend is about to break. If the Bengals get pasted and the Jaguars manage to cover again then it should create the perfect storm when they face each other next week.
Bengals cover. Indianapolis is a strong fade but I don't dare to take it. I am taking the Saints -2.5. If I win tonight then I will take WAS tomorrow vs the Cowboys.
Wow, guess I was right about the Colts. Wish I had of taken it. We will see if the Saints can do the same.
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