Well Ladies and Gentlemen I’m back not that it warrants a parade by any means, just that I’m really excited for this season to start for two reasons, the adrenaline of crunching the numbers in hopes of a high win percentage against the spread and that my Giants can’t suck two years in a row.
I’ve spent a lot of the offseason making changes to my system in hopes of improving my win percentage against the spread. My back data has been yielding promising results. In back testing my data for the 2013 season my findings are as follows.
Week Selected Won Percentage Week_02 4 2 50% Week_03 8 8 100% Week_04 7 4 57% Week_05 4 3 75% Week_06 4 3 75% Week_07 6 5 83% Week_08 5 2 40% Week_09 4 3 75% Week_10 4 3 75% Week_11 4 1 25% Week_12 4 2 50% Week_13 4 4 100% Week_14 1 0 0% Week_15 3 2 67% Week_16 2 1 50% Week_17 8 8 100%
While the results look impressive at 71%, I’m not sold on them. There is simply too much variance in win percentage from week to week to know with any certainty that some luck isn’t playing a factor with my calculations which is what I’m currently tooling with at the moment, down to fine tuning this project.
As in the past, I’ll be posting my weekly picks each week with the exception of week 1 as my formula for projecting the winners is based on statistical data. I will however be presenting the picks differently this year. I won’t be projecting the outcome of every single game but just those that the formula deems a higher confidence percentage to beat the spread.
Lets have a great season