1. #596
    StackinGreen
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tommy Karate View Post
    yup - back home on prime time; no need to overthink this one. early money agrees...[/QUO

    Not sure how you can go under in that game the way the Packer offense is playing.
    I agree, but 55? Jeez. The number is a clear overreaction to every game going over. The lucky overs have to stop some time

  2. #597
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    hoping for this to hit 57 and then i'll hit it under....will just pay for the hook as 57 is a likely lading spot if this game finishes in the 50's.

  3. #598
    meader99
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tommy Karate View Post




    hoping for this to hit 57 and then i'll hit it under....will just pay for the hook as 57 is a likely lading spot if this game finishes in the 50's.
    Anything under 60 is a bettable over. It isn't just the primetime over trend, look at the games between the Packers and Saints the last 5 years.

  4. #599
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    Quote Originally Posted by StackinGreen View Post
    I agree, but 55? Jeez. The number is a clear overreaction to every game going over. The lucky overs have to stop some time
    I was expecting this to open at 56 or 57. 54 opener was a gift.

  5. #600
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    I guess 28-27 would fit Tommy's mold of needing 57

  6. #601
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    Quote Originally Posted by StackinGreen View Post
    I guess 28-27 would fit Tommy's mold of needing 57
    It would indeed, and funny that happens to be the exact score and lowest total of the 3 games played between the two with the current QB's leading each team. I think you need to add the fast track of the dome into the equation as well.

  7. #602
    Tommy Karate
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    My crystal ball has 31-24 saints. Ha.

  8. #603
    Tommy Karate
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    Quote Originally Posted by meader99 View Post
    It would indeed, and funny that happens to be the exact score and lowest total of the 3 games played between the two with the current QB's leading each team. I think you need to add the fast track of the dome into the equation as well.
    I hear ya. It's scary to bet under a game like this, but I'm committed to the N3 auto. I've been burned bad in the past on these ntv totals over 50. This year of course they are going over. But it's a good "long term" angle to go under in these. Don't you love the long term talk. Ha.

  9. #604
    meader99
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tommy Karate View Post
    I hear ya. It's scary to bet under a game like this, but I'm committed to the N3 auto. I've been burned bad in the past on these ntv totals over 50. This year of course they are going over. But it's a good "long term" angle to go under in these. Don't you love the long term talk. Ha.
    I totally get it, but sometimes you gotta ride the wave..... Like the Royals in postseason. DOH.

  10. #605
    KRIT
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    Loving the saints talk here. Sorry meader, your Pack are losing this week. Probably going fairly big on Saints ML. This game reminds me a lot of Bengals/Pats from a couple weeks ago. Saints will still win that division.

  11. #606
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    Quote Originally Posted by KRIT View Post
    Loving the saints talk here. Sorry meader, your Pack are losing this week. Probably going fairly big on Saints ML. This game reminds me a lot of Bengals/Pats from a couple weeks ago. Saints will still win that division.
    It's cool. I'm on the fence regarding the game, but I feel the game soars over the total. Don't see NO keeping GB under 30. If that's the case, TK has GB winning 31-24.

  12. #607
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    Quote Originally Posted by KRIT View Post
    Loving the saints talk here. Sorry meader, your Pack are losing this week. Probably going fairly big on Saints ML. This game reminds me a lot of Bengals/Pats from a couple weeks ago. Saints will still win that division.
    and pitt/hou monday.

    man, not liking what this sd line is doing. being stuck on 7.5 at pinnacle is a clear sign they want more sd money. whether that means they know the winner, or just want to balance out the action is always up for debate.

  13. #608
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    I think the Packers can win and the problem for the Saints has been particularly the matchup against spread teams. Yes, they are at home and desperate, but there have been a lot of mediocre to bad teams this year so far that had that going and couldn't come up with anything (Jets scored first vs Broncos but didn't really threaten to win, etc.). I could easily see Saints winning by a small margin or even 7, but the Green Bay D has even been improving and Saints D is awful. Since that's the case, I'm not going to play Packers straight (or if any it'll be game time and real small) but I do think teasing Packers to above 7 is a great play.

  14. #609
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tommy Karate View Post
    and pitt/hou monday.

    man, not liking what this sd line is doing. being stuck on 7.5 at pinnacle is a clear sign they want more sd money. whether that means they know the winner, or just want to balance out the action is always up for debate.
    Tommy, I was gonna tell you, tread lightly here. I'm looking for reasons (as you are) to take dawgs as they lines keep getting inflated but this SD team is super banged up and doesn't have the big runners they need to pound and keep away from Peyton. The line jump is classic and always a bit much, but this game could easily be 20 point winner for Denver. As it stands now, I'd predict 30-17 and it going under. Not touching it though; maybe 2H

    Know the winner? Are you a conspiracy theorist now, Tommy? Sheesh.

  15. #610
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    Quote Originally Posted by StackinGreen View Post
    I think the Packers can win and the problem for the Saints has been particularly the matchup against spread teams. Yes, they are at home and desperate, but there have been a lot of mediocre to bad teams this year so far that had that going and couldn't come up with anything (Jets scored first vs Broncos but didn't really threaten to win, etc.). I could easily see Saints winning by a small margin or even 7, but the Green Bay D has even been improving and Saints D is awful. Since that's the case, I'm not going to play Packers straight (or if any it'll be game time and real small) but I do think teasing Packers to above 7 is a great play.
    New Orleans was desperate against the Bucs to and they put up over 30 on them at home. I wouldn't want to stomach watching the game and being on the under.

  16. #611
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    Quote Originally Posted by StackinGreen View Post
    Tommy, I was gonna tell you, tread lightly here. I'm looking for reasons (as you are) to take dawgs as they lines keep getting inflated but this SD team is super banged up and doesn't have the big runners they need to pound and keep away from Peyton. The line jump is classic and always a bit much, but this game could easily be 20 point winner for Denver. As it stands now, I'd predict 30-17 and it going under. Not touching it though; maybe 2H

    Know the winner? Are you a conspiracy theorist now, Tommy? Sheesh.
    I like it. As such, I'm teasing Denver and the over.

  17. #612
    Tommy Karate
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    Don't underestimate Oliver. Think MJD.

    I may reduce a little based on the move if I can get 8.

  18. #613
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    Quote Originally Posted by meader99 View Post
    I like it. As such, I'm teasing Denver and the over.
    Can't blame you. The more I think about it, the more it seems Denver by double digits. But I'm checking myself and probably won't bet until half.

  19. #614
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tommy Karate View Post
    Thursday 10.23

    (10u) Chargers +7.5/-120
    (3u) Under Chargers 52 (N3)
    booked under @ 52

    (3u) Broncos -8/-120
    Last edited by Tommy Karate; 10-23-14 at 07:10 PM.

  20. #615
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    oh wow; i really hope NO wins sunday; they travel to Carolina next Thursday

  21. #616
    Tommy Karate
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    this doesnt look promising; gotta just hope for the under i think.

  22. #617
    Tommy Karate
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    how can the broncos not be 3/5 favorites to win it all with this defense? this is insane..

  23. #618
    Tommy Karate
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    this game has done a complete 180 since that fukkin oyster ref did what he did.

    and now the under is in trouble.....i havent been this sick in a long long time.
    Last edited by Tommy Karate; 10-23-14 at 09:22 PM.

  24. #619
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tommy Karate View Post
    this game has done a complete 180 since that fukkin oyster ref did what he did.

    and now the under is in trouble.....i havent been this sick in a long long time.
    Which play?

    4th down conversion AND weddle interception in end zone make it go over ... let's hope it stays here for you

    crazy that after the hold on the 1st Broncos series after half a PI gets 45 back

  25. #620
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tommy Karate View Post
    how can the broncos not be 3/5 favorites to win it all with this defense? this is insane..
    I agree. In the AFC it's almost a cake walk to the SB too. Who could possibly beat them? Maybe Indy or Balt? Maybe

  26. #621
    Tommy Karate
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    im sitting here in a fog right now...

    did they really just call a penalty on that turnover and now denver scored again?

    im done for the week if this under loses......just will eat the vig and quit.

    by the way, did anyone realize i didnt play the N12 Thursday night home team auto? thats right, instead of winning 150 on den i lose 450

    soon to be another 160 on the under

  27. #622
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    Congrats Denver backers; I failed to handicap the home field advantage more into this play.
    this was an absolute joke tonight...

    if 1 of those 2 blatant mistakes goes in SD's favor, there is your 7 point loss.

  28. #623
    LtDarsh
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    ahh this is why you are upset today

  29. #624
    Tommy Karate
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    Quote Originally Posted by LtDarsh View Post
    ahh this is why you are upset today
    ha; yes; apologizes to anyone for being a dik last night.
    i guess on the bright side i did hedge a little before kick and reduced my position from 10 to 7u..

  30. #625
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    Quote Originally Posted by StackinGreen View Post
    Week 8

    Kansas City -6, 7 units
    Indianapolis -2.5, 7 units

    3 team 10 point teaser, KC +4/Indy +7.5/Green Bay +11.5, 6.5 to win 5 units

    Will add more later. Good luck boys.

    What's up with totals this week? Seem to be just spot on. Not that you need a brain ... public must be killing these books on Primetime and so many have been horseshoe up the a$$ wins
    Detroit/Atlanta UNDER 47, 5 units
    Chicago/New England OVER 50.5, 3 units

    ---
    13-19 straights
    3-7 teasers
    1-1 parlays
    3-2-1 2H

    -65.6 units

  31. #626
    meader99
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tommy Karate View Post




    hoping for this to hit 57 and then i'll hit it under....will just pay for the hook as 57 is a likely lading spot if this game finishes in the 50's.
    Up to 56.5 now. Just side notes, Sammy Shields is doubtful, and I haven't had a chance to fact check yet, but I read somewhere that Rodgers has played 23 Dome games and has 56 TD's and 8 ints in those games. He's a baaaad man.

  32. #627
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tommy Karate View Post
    Sunday 10.26

    (2u) Over Lions/Falcons 46.5/-120
    (3u) Bucs -2.5/-120 (N8)
    (2u) Patriots -5.5 (N7)
    (1u) KC -6 (N2)
    (2u) Jets -2.5/-130 (N7)
    (1u) Under Jets/Bills 41
    (4u) Jaguars +7 (N6)
    (2u) Texans -3/-130 (N7)
    (2u) Saints -125 (N7)
    (3u) Under Saints/GB 56 (N3)
    (2u) Over Eagles/Cards 48
    (4u) Over Colts 49
    (2u) KC -7 (3u total)*
    (2u) Under Seahawks 45
    (1u) Panthers 6

    (1u) Bengals +3

    booked Patriots @ -5.5
    booked Texans @ - 3/-130
    booked under GB @ 56
    booked Jags @ +7
    Last edited by Tommy Karate; 10-26-14 at 11:55 AM.

  33. #628
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    930 kickoff...ha; i forgot and just woke up

  34. #629
    ram1502
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    Haha yeah. Lions look like they just woke up too and completely disinterested...

  35. #630
    RollinDo
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    That GB game could be a shootout.
    GL man!

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