[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

NFL handicapping is the art of making predictions about individual NFL matchups to determine which team has the greatest chance of winning a specific game, thus profiting from these predictions. When it comes to professional football, there are three distinct techniques of handicapping I incorporate in my formulas SBR members that I like to share with you. Fundamental, Situational, and Technical. From A fellow Handcapper,I know personally Allen Moody.Believe me his record in NFL betting speaks for itself.[ Not as good as mine!!! Just kidding Allen!!!!]. I use a 75-percent Fundamental (Statistical) Handicapping, 15-percent Situational Handicapping, and 10-percent Technical Handicapping breakdown, electing to give more weight to the predicted statistical output like he does, which I use in my NFL formulas.So this a synopsis what Allen Moody is saying SBR members,when you are handicapping games.

:'' Fundamental Handicapping (aka Statistical Handicapping)" Use of statistics, power ratings, and personnel match-up to make selections.Typically, this method of handicapping takes the most consideration into NFL weather report, football injuries, and game time temperature. Since the NFL has fewer games in a season, compared to that of other sports league's the team is less prone to emotional components. This makes statistics more accurate as a team is ready, motivated, and prepared to play each week. However, this does mean there are less statistics to examine.

:"Situational Handicapping" All about assessing let down factors, scheduling, motivation, revenge games, and non-mathematical systems. Breaking NFL news is a critical component in situational handicapping .It concentrates on how teams fare in particular situations, such as being the underdog or title of some sort at stake.This form of handicapping is more prevalent in college football because of the maturity level of the players. It can be presumed that professional NFL players are less susceptible to mood swings and are more level-headed. (not always, of course)".

:"Technical Handicapping" Investigates the technical circumstances of each team and game looks for the historical trends.Good for taking the coaching into consideration, as their game plan can be taken into account.Typically the method of handicapping which carries the least weight. While some might be partial to specific method of handicapping, there’s a lot to be gained from a combination of Fundamental, Situational, and Technical handicapping. Professional NFL handicappers, such as I am SBR members is being expert in finding the balance and capitalizing on sports betting. The look for the best NFL matchups as represented by the NFL odds and football lines each week.

These philosophies I use are from are from stat's, information power rating analysis from J.J.Bascus power rating[ Cal-Neva Resort Spa and Casino lake Tahoe N.V..] considered the best 80% true. I have been diligent in my philosophy, Just betting one game at each week [Some exceptions applied Monday & Thursday Night games] I never bet spreads over 10, Never a road team, getting 7 more points, Never home steam giving up 7 more points I work off a spreadsheet. Use money lines as a evaluation, with and against the point spreads, Weather,injures, Power ratings, Defense and Offense analyzes, Team coaches comparisons. I never!! never!! bet 1st week in NFL season. My betting style press one time on 2nd win and will go back to a Original bet after the press Win Or Lose... One Bet at time ...You can't win? if you don,t press once. I believe my record does speak for itself as the single strongest winning formula I use in my NFL game prediction. SBR members you can always find me at Caesars palace sportsbook, Las Vegas N.V.on the strip where I bet. Would love to see you all.!!!!!!!

NOTE: Technical analysis has come under scrutiny by fundamental handicappers and some sports betters due to the fact that anybody searching a database randomly for patterns will find situations that have produced very good results. However, the key is to look for situations that make sense. I don't use trends such as "The Steelers are 13-2 in week number 7" (Do they actually know that week 7 is their week and gain confidence from it?) or "bet on home dogs from +2 to +4 if it's a weeknight MAC game" (the more narrow the point spread range is the more likely it is a random occurrence and not a true indicator of a real pattern).

Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT
PS. I am always open to constructive criticism of my threads & discussions!!! Thanks for reading my thread SBR members[ Very good luck to you all in NFL season. When I win, you win too!!!!!!!! All my threads & predictions are on SBR sports Forum.
PSS. Information of Fundamental, Situational, and Technical NFL techniques was taken from Allen Moody philosophies, which I respect as a NFL handicapper.
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[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Our Big $Score$ System Smitty Ryan Jr. Mr.HarryTheHat And J.J.Bascus 1974 Superbowl

[Scorpion]

so you bet on just one game week week and you only play at Caesars?

I have been doing that too and it works for me

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

so you bet on just one game week week and you only play at Caesars?

I have been doing that too and it works for me

I never!! never!! bet 1st week in NFL season. My betting style press one time on 2nd win and will go back to a Original bet after the press Win Or Lose... One Bet at time ...You can't win? if you don,t press once.
Very Good Luck To You Scorpion In The NFL Season. Thanks For Your Reply and Reading My Thread.

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

There is a fountain of youth: it is your mind, your talents, the creativity you bring to your life and the lives of people you like & Identify with. When you learn to tap this source, you will truly have defeated age."
Hårr¥THëHÄT

[Trmeyer]

I just got dumber!

[slacker00]

I just got dumber!

I feel dumber after reading Harry's methods too. It's nothing like what I use, but to each his own.

[Scorpion]

i really like his betting strategy, bet just one game week and play at only one book

it works guys

[KVB]

Well Hat, I’ve always respected your posts and the old school mentality you tend to bring, my own posts are from the old school warning of things like ATS records, bet size fluctuations and of understanding what a good bet is value wise as well as creating your own spread.

That being said, one of the biggest differences between professional gamblers and amateurs, one thing that tends to set them apart, is the difference in the number of opinions they have. Professional gamblers tend to have more opinions, grinding their way to profit.

Professional gamblers are about profit, not win percentage.I don’t know your posted record, but I will figure, at one game a week and based on what you wrote that you win a high percentage of NFL plays. Actually, maybe not that high as you appear to use a pressing, likely Martingale type strategy. Regardless, at one game a week it could take years just to get enough conclusions to show your record isn’t more than a fluke or variation...the sample size is so small (now I know you’ve had years, but I’m making the point anyway).

Consider this…at -110 (probably what you are paying at Caesar’s) winning 60% of 50 bets will not make as much profit as winning 55% of more than 150 bets.

Sure, that can be skewed with upset money lines sprinkled in, reducing win percentage and increasing profit, but the point, over many conclusions, remains.

You appear to put a lot of work into what you are doing (or at least rely on someone else’s work) that you might think about loosening your criteria to get some more bets down.

Judging by your writing and your photo, I think you know where I’m coming from and probably had many more NFL conclusions in the past.

With the total number of NFL propositions offered within a given in a year, a good grinder should expect to have upwards of 200 conclusions or more (or less I suppose). It makes me wonder whether the NFL line has gotten too sharp for your betting in general or that perhaps you are a bit afraid…no it couldn’t be that, Mr. Hat!

With respect.

[Scorpion]

didnt you know you are bisexual

[BigdaddyQH]

A very good post, though I disagree with the percentages that he uses. To me, it is closer to 50-25-25. I also am not afraid to wager on a game in the first week of the NFL season, or College season. If you are good enough to post lines for future games, you should use that talent to grab lines that may be off, no matter what week they are in. I believe that Denver is over-rated and Green Bay is under-rated, so I took The Pack -1 at Detroit and -1 1/2 at Chicago in September. I am hoping that the injury bug which always seems to hit the Pack in mid-season will not strike in September. By the same token, I am not convinced about P. Mannings health, so I took St. Louis +4 1/2 at home against the Broncos in November. I think that the Saints have a great team, so I took them in every game that they were a dog in, taking 3 points at Chicago in December and at Pitt on the last day of November, and 1 1/2 at Detroit in mid October. I also gave the Saints -2 1/2 at Cleveland in week 2, and -1 1/2 at home against Dallas in week 4.

Ialso think that KVB makes some good points. Wagering just one game a week is a very difficult way to make a decent profit. You walk a very thin line. 60% of 16 games (you claim not to wager in week 1) slightly over 9.5 games. 9 winning games gives you 56.5%. 8 is obviously a loser. Wagering on just 16 games leaves you no wiggle room at all. It is a about the profit. I average about 57.5% winners a year, and I have been wagering seriously since 1971. I always wager the same amount on every game. I wager on about 100 games/year, both College and Pro. I tend to wager less as the season goes on, especially in the Colleges, where you have division and conference play between teams that really know each other. KVB is right. It is all about profit. I consider wagering on football a way to make money, NOT a gamble.

This is one of the better gaming posts that I have read in here. Many of us come from the same school, known as the "old school". Let's keep it up, and hopefully the young macho's will stay out of this post.

[KnownUnknown]

Is it possible that handicapping the games may be a lot simpler than many make it? I wonder if too much information analyzed is possibly taking cappers in the wrong direction? There is so much information to be had that it seems that it can be a lot more "noise" than "signal" when evaluating the games. Sometimes when I read about the methods others employ it makes me dizzy. I am also amazed that they can find the most useful way from assessing so many factors. Personally, this is a danger I seem to always have to guard against no matter how often I try to be aware of this potential problem.

[KVB]

Is it possible that handicapping the games may be a lot simpler than many make it? I wonder if too much information analyzed is possibly taking cappers in the wrong direction? There is so much information to be had that it seems that it can be a lot more "noise" than "signal" when evaluating the games. Sometimes when I read about the methods others employ it makes me dizzy. I am also amazed that they can find the most useful way from assessing so many factors. Personally, this is a danger I seem to always have to guard against no matter how often I try to be aware of this potential problem.

This is true. The fact is, there are many ways to skin a cat...there are may ways to successfully handicap. If one uses too many methods or tries to incorporate too many methods concurrently, whether they are successful methods or not the bettor will likely end up with a coin flip.

For example, in an NFL season a system or trend might be successful in applying to say 50 bets, the rest of games won't apply. Now that system or trend might be right, on say 70% of those 50 bets. Another trend or system that would be successfully applied to a different set of 50 games might also correctly predict 70% of those 50 bets. Pretty good success rates.

But...if you apply the first system to the second set of 50 games or the second system to the first set of games, you may see only 30% success rate for each.

My point is, over the long haul, it is dangerous to limit yourself to one trend, system, angle or whatever you want to call it. That being said, if you were to incorporate every trend, system, or angle available into your handicapping, you would likely dull if not lose any edge and end up 50-50 in picks and lose money due to vigorish.

Although it should be noted that you would likely gain valuable marketplace experience if you understand how to interpret your results in such case.

I would also say that once your handicapping has reached a 50-50 level, you, as a handicapper, are about to "break on through to the other side." The side at which we, the successful handicappers, make our camp and spend our days.

[KnownUnknown]

KVB- that was a very interesting response. On average- how many solid bets do you normally see for NFL weekly with the system you employ?

[KVB]

KVB- that was a very interesting response. On average- how many solid bets do you normally see for NFL weekly with the system you employ?

Truthfully, you never know what you are going to get...the marketplace is both fluid an dynamic. As I mentioned above, a good handicapper should be able to find upwards of 200 plays in a given NFL season yet this can vary widely. Not counting preseason, and counting one side and one total bet per game, I believe there were 534 total opportunities in the NFL last year. Reaching 200 plays on those offerings alone has one betting about 37% of the games. That's a pretty good clip.

Now, with the brilliance of technology, we are all opened to things like live lines, halftime bets, and propositions that give bettors chance exploit odds in other markets.

All said and done, I plan to use as many advantages as possible to get well over that 200 bet mark, maybe even breaking 250 (counting a few greedy live plays), and very likely will. Week by week is tough to say as, like I said, it is a fluid and dynamic marketplace.

As far as employing a system is concerned...it's better to say that I employ a multifaceted program made up of many of what you might consider "systems" as well as sophisticated analyses of the general sports betting marketplace designed to extract money from that marketplace at the expense of losing bettors.

[2daBank]

Isn't your "system" to copy and paste other ppls work and claim it as your own? Or do you forget the year some1 exposed you and pulled up segments from different places you plagerized word for word? Well I know u didn't forget seeing how u never acknowledged the abundance of proof. I guess better to just hope other ppl forgot and go on acting like it never happened..

[KVB]

Isn't your "system" to copy and paste other ppls work and claim it as your own? Or do you forget the year some1 exposed you and pulled up segments from different places you plagerized word for word? Well I know u didn't forget seeing how u never acknowledged the abundance of proof. I guess better to just hope other ppl forgot and go on acting like it never happened..

You may be right Bank, here's a post I made 9 days ago in another Hat thread...alluding to that very possibility, only my evidence is within the posts themselves. Hat might present a decent right up, but there is reason to question his understanding of his own posts:

Harry, I generally like the posts you post. Go back in the threads...I've added meaningful insight to many of your posts and asked you questions (to which you never offer answers).

I am not "trolling" you here but I do have some criticism.

Because of your lack of conversation in many of your threads I'm leaning towards my initial thoughts that you could be copying or reciting someone else's work without a real understanding of what you are writing.

I could be wrong about this.

No sooner do you praise the work of a guy like Feustel (justin7) then you start this thread.

While you can use this information to indeed handicap, you must understand the context of the information you are using and the conclusions you are making relative to the marketplace...that in itself is a lengthy discourse meant only for experienced handicappers with a sophisticated outlook.

That being said, a serious handicapper should be improving his or her methods as time goes on, year after year.

Using a strength of schedule based on win percentage, especially from past year, is not moving forward in handicapping knowledge and, depending on one's experience, could easily be considered moving backward.

No answer from the Hat. I still reserve that I could be wrong about the Hat, but who knows?

[Eddy Munny]

All I learned in this thread is that Harry is bisexual?

I guess the "Hat" part of his moniker refers to the condom he deploys, because last time he raw-dogged it, he pissed cottage cheese for a week.