When I began capping this one I started typing out some thoughts on the game and ended up with this. It's incomplete because I want to start eating and drinking, and I don't want to spend the extra time required to make this complete and comprehensive. So sorry about that. And seriously, I left a lot of stuff/stats out, so just know that.

The Seahawks are totally legit and I think the square play is to take the Hawks at home because at a cursory glance, it makes all the sense in the world. But I think the Saints are a decent bet to cover (+6.5).

If anything, this should spur some healthy debate.

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Of course there's A LOT MORE that could be included in this write-up.
Note: Most statistical notions and references are based off of DVOA data.


Offensively: The jist is that the Seahawks are a top-5 team in both rushing and passing offense. The Saints are ranked a tiny bit higher in the passing game, but are only a middle of the pack team as far as rushing.


Defensively: The jist is that the Seahawks are a top-3 team in both rushing and pass defense. The Saints are top-5 in passing, but just about the bottom of the totem pole when it comes to stopping the run.


The most significant injury news is that the Seawhawks are missing a couple cornerbacks, Browner and Thurmond. The Seahawks are a deep team, absolutely, but they're not so deep that this won't be a disadvantage against Drew Brees and the Saints top-rated pass attack. The Legion of Boom is shorthanded with the Hawks starting a 3rd string cornerback. That's an immediate disadvantage for Seattle. There WILL be mismatches. Payton will make them happen.

I'm sure the Hawks have been trying to figure out how they're going to handle all the Saints receivers, but I read they didn't really have enough time to alter their defensive scheme after accounting for personnel changes in the secondary. Who will account for Graham? Sherman? Will they bracket Graham with Sherman and a safety? That opens up the field for Sproles and Thomas, both RBs with decent hands.


(Btw, the Seahawks have been very good all season about containing TEs, although arguably the best TE they faced was Vernon Davis in Week 2 and Davis was playing with a hamstring issue and eventually left the game.) Etc. There's something to be said about the cornerback situation.


Gotta figure both teams will do what they do. Hawks will try to run Lynch through the Saints and Brees will try to light up the Hawks secondary. Saints will probably stack the box and try to get Russell to beat them with his arm. One thing though is that Russell is also capable of beating them with his legs. Gulp.


Strength of schedule needs to be considered before we just drink all the superficial kool aid and call it good. The Saints have achieved their rankings while playing more, better defenses. In other words, the Saints offense has faced a significantly higher number of more challenging defenses than the Hawks have. And on the other side of the ball, the Saints defense has faced a significantly higher number of more challenging offenses. And FWIW, the Saints have been more consistent in terms of game-to-game consistency both offensively and defensively.


Conditions: Of course a lot of pre-game discussion revolves around the conditions and how the "bad weather" is going to be a major problem for the Saints, giving the Seahawks another advantage. I'm not buying it because the weather simply isn't that bad. No rain, no snow, not much wind... the forecast is pretty much, "It's gonna be cold." That isn't going to stop Brees and the Saints (any more than it will stop the Hawks.)

The noisy hostile environment will be a factor, but I don't think it'll be a gamebreaker. The Saints home field isn't exactly a library and I'd expect a team like them to come in prepared for noise. Brees is a vet.


Motivation: This is a huge night. Don't really need to discuss this much. There is zero doubt both teams come into this fired up and hungry for a win. The Seahawks have had some locker room distraction due to the Browner/Thurmond situation. I've got no bearing on whether this will impact them on the field. I want to say it probably won't, but that kind of thing definitely doesn't help a team focus on the task at hand.

Coaching advantage? Payton? Carroll?


I think the Hawks are a little overrated and the Saints are a little understated. I think the key factors will be the usual suspects: Offensive line play, turnovers and special teams. And Russell Wilson scrambling. If Wilson has one of those games where he's scrambles for multiple first downs, that could be the ultimate edge.