Originally Posted by
MobFade
Wow, both of these teams played great today, at least on defense. Carolina's front 7 is top 5 in this league with Star Lotulelei in there. If you're part of the Jacksonville front office, I hope that 2nd overall RT to give Gabbert time to throw panned out today when you passed on this kid. Oh Gabbert got sacked 6 times? Whoops. Fire yourself.
Seattle D: Seattle is going to start this season out slow while their starting Front 7 is basically out. Two leading sack guys from last year in Clemons (ACL last year, should be back soon) and Irvin (suspended until Week 5) were missing today, as was FA addition Cliff Avril. Also missing starting pro-bowl CB Brandon Browner and rookie DT Jordan Hill who is going to be a great 3-tech on that D Line. Cam had all day to throw as expected, so not much of a surprise that the pass-rush wasn't able to get there. They're starting OB Schofield at RDE and he's pretty solid, but had an UDFA Rookie taking a lot of snaps at SAM where Irvin/Avril will eventually rotate through. Standard stuff from the secondary, didn't give up much other than guys sitting in space when they play zone. The inability to stop the run, especially when you're talking about DeAngelo Williams should be a little bit worrisome, but we pretty much know what we're getting w/ Seattle's D once they start returning at least one of Clemons or Avril. I thought Avril was gonna be a go this weekend because he started practicing late in the week, which is why I recommended SEA-3. Going forward, I'd be worried about betting Seattle until Week 5 ATS. This team is extreeeeemely deep on defense especially in the secondary. They are going to be ATS monsters down the stretch as they can plug and play all over when other teams start losing staters.
Seattle O: Marshawn Lynch wasn't as bad as his stat line looked and RW wasn't as good as his looked. Their o-line was flat-out bad today, but I think more credit goes to CAR's front 4, which I'll talk about in a second. Just really nothing going for SEA once that run game didn't get off the ground. No one in their WR corps are good fantasy options so they don't get a lot of credit, but this is group is highly effective in games, and especially in the clutch. That's been true for a year and a half, not just today. Going forward, Seattle's offense is going to be fine. They were constantly stuffed by, again, an elite front 7 today who was also able to bring pressure and schemed extremely well against the option.
Carolina D: Hot damn these cats are good. Lotulelei was the missing piece. He gets off the ball exceptionally well, holds his ground, eats double teams, collapses the pocket, gets in the backfield and makes plays sideline to sideline. It allows his ends to really sell out to get pressure off the edge in passing situations. RW had no where to run as that pocket collapsed from 360 degrees. I was maybe even more impressed with how disciplined their LB's and DE's were in maintaining their gaps. Seattle only had one run go over 8 yards I'm almost positive with many stopped for a loss. The benefit is definitely felt in the secondary, where QB's are being hurried on almost every play and your guys aren't in coverage as long. Go pick up this CAR D in your fantasy leagues.
Carolina O: DeAngelo Williams is terrible. Just awful. Not even for the fumble, but he is so hesitant through the hole and looks like he literally just wanted to go down today without getting hit too hard. This is not hyperbole when I saw he looked scared out there today. Cam had a great game and is truly unique with his size and running ability. I don't know how you stop him running the option on 3rd and 3. His passing looked good but he did have an inordinate amount of time in the pocket. Steve Smith was clutch.
Takeaways: Probably don't bet Seattle until Week 5 when they're all healthy unless there is some weird backlash for how close this game was played in the court of public opinion. They are a pretty public team right now and are being generally overrated, though I think the Week 1 line was pretty spot on with SEA-3. I had said up until Avril was supposedly coming back that I would take SEA-2.5 or CAR+3.5 ... it was really that close, and I ended up getting SEA-2.5 once I think Harvin had surgery way back in pre-season. This team is going to be the best team in the NFL after Week 5 so don't join everyone jumping off the bandwagon before then. There's going to be a great opportunity for value if they lose to the 49ers and/or Texans, or play the Jags too close at home after this game in CAR.
All aboard the Carolina bandwagon. They're goign to be lethal against teams that don't bring a ton of pressure. Keep an eye on their OG situation in this respect as they were already down a starter, and lost another possibly for the season against SEA, but hopefully Kalil at C will be enough to keep that in check. I think Carolina under should be a safe bet for a while against non-elite QB's, especially with a matchup like the Bills coming up next. I didn't see the game yet, but I think Buffalo played that close enough to get a little respect. Looks like it opened CAR-2.5 after Cantor had them -1 pre-season and total opened 44, which I would let the public juice some more, at least to get the hook.