[burkestar]

is this a good bet?

[slacker00]

Where do you see this prop? Seems like a decent bet getting 3 to 1 or better.

[burkestar]

well i am not from the USA and can get it on Bet365 for 3.60 which i think works out to be +360 to you guys, but unfortunately bet365 dont allow usa people i think but not to worry i have seen this prop on many books you guys surely should have it on one of your books

[slacker00]

I think it's a good bet. Adrian Peterson has won it 2 times in 5 years (40%) and is coming off his best year yet. Adrian Peterson is in his prime and the current landscape of the NFL doesn't allow really allow for the "franchise RB" anymore, so many teams have RB-by-committee these days meaning there aren't a lot of RBs that will even get as many attempts as Adrian Peterson. The biggest worry with Adrian Peterson has always been his durability, but if he stays healthy I see him continuing to dominate like last year.

[burkestar]

yes my thoughts exactly, if he stays healthy it looks good, but my other concern is his team. Even though he is as good as he is, the team is pritty average and dont possess much of a passing threat, i feel that other teams are just gonna load up to stop the run, but even still he beats the 1st man more often than not and should be able to still make a lot of yardage

[slacker00]

yes my thoughts exactly, if he stays healthy it looks good, but my other concern is his team. Even though he is as good as he is, the team is pritty average and dont possess much of a passing threat, i feel that other teams are just gonna load up to stop the run, but even still he beats the 1st man more often than not and should be able to still make a lot of yardage

Well, I think they have much better WRs than last year, adding Greg Jennings is a HUGE upgrade and drafting Cordarrelle Patterson in the first round offers some hope as well. Their TEs and o-line stay in tact from last year, which is also a positive. Ponder is always a big concern and I still think he has the potential to be a solid NFL starter, especially now with some WR upgrades from last year.

[Mocknroll]

If this was a "who would rush for the most yards if they stayed healty" prop then he would be paying evens.

The only worry with a prop like this is you're relying on the fitness of 1 guy. With a team total wins prop you could have your QB go down and still hit.

I see the potential for injury being the only reason he's paying so much, so as long as you're willing to risk it on that I think it's a good bet.

[slacker00]

If this was a "who would rush for the most yards if they stayed healty" prop then he would be paying evens.

The only worry with a prop like this is you're relying on the fitness of 1 guy. With a team total wins prop you could have your QB go down and still hit.

I see the potential for injury being the only reason he's paying so much, so as long as you're willing to risk it on that I think it's a good bet.

Every bet is a risk. I disagree with your statement about team totals, the #1 QB going down is brutal for any team.

[Chitown2005]

Cant see a guy at his age and with that team leading the league. The real question is if he does, is he perhaps the greatest ever?

[slacker00]

Cant see a guy at his age and with that team leading the league. The real question is if he does, is he perhaps the greatest ever?

Adrian Peterson will be 28 this season, it's a great age for a premium RB. Here's a list of RBs that lead the NFL in rushing at age 28+: LaDainian Tomlinson(2007), Shaun Alexander(2005), Curtis Martin(2004), Priest Holmes(2001),Barry Sanders(1997&1996),etc. Age is clearly not an issue.

[Mocknroll]

Every bet is a risk. I disagree with your statement about team totals, the #1 QB going down is brutal for any team.

I agree with you completely, losing your #1QB is brutal, but the team still competes and can still win games. Your team total is still alive.

Peterson does his knee in week 1 and is out for the season, he's not rushing for the most yards.

That's what I was getting at.

[Deol]

3.60 is +260. I don't think the values there.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

this guy isn't human.

he'll break the rushing record before his career ends...