[Grinder12000]

OK OK - if you take include all of the "C" games only 59.26% Take out "C" and it's 63.82%

This will be the 22 year I have used this system that I developed 22 years ago. The one drawback is that it is basically a fill-in system. Not for people that crave action as it only generates an average of 43 picks a year.

HOWEVER - the "A" picks are (seriously) 61-16.

This system was never back tested - these are real time wagering numbers but there is another problem that I have had to deal with. The games SUCK!! Many times people (including me) have real issues betting on these games because no one in their right minds would bet on the team. WHICH IS WHY THE SYSTEM WORKS.

Bridgejumper is a DOG system that finds games where the linemakers need to skew the lines to get the 50/50 ratio.

Most games that it picks are when a HOT HOT team is playing a COLD COLD team and we're betting on the COLD team.

What I found is that during the season teams go through streaks and Joe Public plays those streaks. So when a team has blown out other teams 3 or 4 times in a row Joe Public is all over that team and when the hot team plays a pathetic team no one is playing the pathetic team . . . . except ME!

Can you say back door cover?

I've broken the system into three categories "A" "B" "C"

"A" games are 61-16 and normally favorites (there is logic I'll explain at sometime) - I pound those games
"B" games are 186-124 for exactly 60% - typically big away dogs
"C" games seem to be filler and are 294-232 for 55%.

The WORST year was 2000 where I lost 4.9 units.

Teams need 3 games before the system starts.

So now I just have to sit back and wait.

[Renegades]

Nfl is a contrarian league so you have to be willing to go against the grain. Curious to see your plays

[Grinder12000]

The weird thing I have noticed through the years but have never kept track of is the number of times it will pick a dog that wins outright, not that I would ever play to win.

I honestly have a hard time playing some of the games and have missed out many personal wins because I get cold feet. A lesson learned many times.

The "A" games are always favorites at home that are having troubles. Good teams having issues coming home and are still favorites.

Also it seems that every other year one team will really blows up the system, normally a huge offensive juggernaut team no one see's coming.

Last year it went 26-19 for 57.7% but there were more "C" games (19-17) then normal. While "B" 6-2 and "A" 1-0 were still rocking.

There are also "F" games (22-32) that I've been playing against, not sure if I should include those or not, maybe a side system?

[ChuckySlick]

Will keep an eye out for this. Good luck this season

[PlatinumBerg]

Post your picks before the game and let that do the talking.

[husky]

Good luck. I like that you are going contrarian/against the public. Would love to hear how you go about finding these teams. Will be watching

[Grinder12000]

I normally post picks around Wednesday. As for finding the games - it's really simple but I have tweaks. Just look for teams crushing the spread when they teams GETTING crushed by the spread. I have parameters but that is basically the system in a nutshell.

So when you bet on a game you will either get crushed and look like a total idiot, OR, win a back door cover and all your friends will say you are lucky. I'll take lucky if I'm lucky 60% of the time! :-)

[on3]

i'll be paying attention. BOL.

[husky]

Sounds good. I assume the ATS margins need to be 10+ points in the previous game? Will be following!

[Kababayan]

Will be following

[TMoney33]

I want to focus more heavily on contrarian picks this year, so I'm definitely excited to see what your system comes up with. GL

[figue]

[punkbhstl]

Looking forward to this year! I followed some of the picks last year... Hope this season goes well.

[Stifler]

will have an eye one your plays grinder.

gl this season

[Grinder12000]

Just so some people know I truly am crazy - PERSONALLY I put one 1 unit on "C" games 2 units on "B" games and "5" units on the "A" games. (or you could put 1/5 unit on the "C" and so forth).

Last year 26-19 for 5.1 units in flat betting - but PERSONALLY I won 13.1

It's been a few years since an "A" game has lost so I've been pounding them. I'm sure when one loses again I'll get my wits about me.

The "C" games are just a tad about 54% which is normally the breakeven. Some have asked why even play them but I figure they DO have a tiny winning record so why not.

Just so you guys have a clue what I keep track of - Denver beat the spread by 14.5 and Balt lost by 14.5 last night.

Remember - on average the margin of victory or loss ATS always has pressure to get back to 0.

So in an example if Denver won the next 3 games also by 14.5 ATS and Balt LOST the next 3 games by 14.5 and they played each other again - I would be putting my money on Baltimore. So get ready for some butt ugly games.

Injuries and frankly the actual game of football has nothing to do with this system - what it's handicapping is not football but the public and the way they bet on the game. My theory is that Joe Public does not have a clue how to bet on the NFL.

[polishkielbasa10]

do you have any of these documented?

[husky]

Just so some people know I truly am crazy - PERSONALLY I put one 1 unit on "C" games 2 units on "B" games and "5" units on the "A" games. (or you could put 1/5 unit on the "C" and so forth).

Last year 26-19 for 5.1 units in flat betting - but PERSONALLY I won 13.1

It's been a few years since an "A" game has lost so I've been pounding them. I'm sure when one loses again I'll get my wits about me.

The "C" games are just a tad about 54% which is normally the breakeven. Some have asked why even play them but I figure they DO have a tiny winning record so why not.

Just so you guys have a clue what I keep track of - Denver beat the spread by 14.5 and Balt lost by 14.5 last night.

Remember - on average the margin of victory or loss ATS always has pressure to get back to 0.

So in an example if Denver won the next 3 games also by 14.5 ATS and Balt LOST the next 3 games by 14.5 and they played each other again - I would be putting my money on Baltimore. So get ready for some butt ugly games.

Injuries and frankly the actual game of football has nothing to do with this system - what it's handicapping is not football but the public and the way they bet on the game. My theory is that Joe Public does not have a clue how to bet on the NFL.

I like your viewpoint. Can I ask how many games you "look for" in a row in terms of beating or losing ATS?

[Grinder12000]

polishkielbasa10 asks . . Documented? No - I've been posting on different forums for years - I WISH I had every game played but I kept total numbers and just didn't.

Games in a row? Another thing I wish the system did. It's a running total and not a moving average - trust me - I have tried the moving average angle but it just never works (also does not work in other sports as I believe the NFL has the dumbest gamblers. So I start with each team needing 3 games (used to be 4 games but I tweaked it 10 years ago) and the system stops week 15.

Here are the week by week winning % starting week 4 not broken down (meaning ALL system games)

64.00%
58.02%
59.29%
62.37%
50.57%
58.42%
59.76%
52.63%
61.54%
48.39%
61.82%
56.41%

I HAVE tweaked it over the years slightly as I get more and more results. I'm not coming on here saying this is a fantastic wonderful system - every year I wait for it to break down but I feel if people need confirmation on a game they like this is a help.

Hopefully others will get ideas and make their own adjustments. OH - and 22 years ago this was a beer induced idea, simple, logical. Bet against the public.

[4TH AND STUPID]

60 % aint winnin nobody shit. and systems are for morons who dont understand the game. how about you start watching some football and then contribute some real football info in a thread. good bye. and i wont bother wishing you luck because youll be gone be week 4

[Grinder12000]

LOL 4TH AND STUPID seems like an appropriate name! Oddly I don't start until week four so I guess you can't read either.

Run along child.

[husky]

Look forward to it Grinder.

[KENTRI]

I'll have an eye to your plays..
Don't bother for the haters..

[Grinder12000]

NOT PART OF THE SYSTEM which starts in 3 weeks

For any action junkies if I was a betting man a few games I would be looking into and I think I'll put a little on is

New England -12
maybe a little on Dallas +3

[Huego]

good luck bud, i hope your system brings you success this season.

[Grinder12000]

Those are my personal plays using the system NOT as designed. Thanks Huego.

[gambler705]

60 % aint winnin nobody shit. and systems are for morons who dont understand the game. how about you start watching some football and then contribute some real football info in a thread. good bye. and i wont bother wishing you luck because youll be gone be week 4

Dumbass of the week right here..,

[Grinder12000]

If I could see the future I would bet the system will be playing the Patriots early in the season. And if that makes you cringe . . . Welcome to Bridgejumper LOL

[Grinder12000]

Well - personal picks were 1-1 NOT Bridgejumper - just biding my time waiting for numbers to accumulate for Bridgejumper.

Personal picks this week look like, but are not final (gotta wait until the MNF game is over but . . )

Washington -2 LOL - yea - not a mistype
Atlanta +1.5
Jacksonville +17

[knugen]

Any plays for tonight?

[Grinder12000]

Bears Steelers? The system is not even close to picking a team here - BUT - using the system NOT as intended

Steelers.

The Steelers are losing to the spread by more then the bears and are small home dogs. If IF - this was a system play the Steelers would be in the 55% cover range. Not a huge amount and basically a coin flip. If I was an action junky I would play the Steelers but I won't go near this game.

I picked the Bears to win in my confidence pool (12 pools finishing no worse then 3 in all but one the last 3 years). Like taking candy from babies.

[Grinder12000]

Glad I didn't bet much on my pre-system plays! I guess I know why I follow the Bridgejumper LOL

I'll have plays in the next couple days - looks like 3 "C" plays so nothing to get excited about. Just have to wait for some solid lines.

[mikew]

looking forward to it

[knugen]

For how many games we continue the chase?

[Stifler]

For how many games we continue the chase?

This isnt a chase system.

[knugen]

This isnt a chase system.

aahaa .thanks