1. #1
    a4u2fear
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    NFL Picks

    Thursday Game:
    Peyton Manning avg 32.5 at home last year, Flacco avg 19 on the road the last two years. Sure Flacco played great on the road in the playoffs, but so did Eli Manning all those SB years. Both turned it on in the playoffs but were wildly inconsistent in the regular season on the road (Flacco more than Manning). 5 times last year Flacco scored 17 or less away from home.

    I could see the total going under 48 along with the Ravens covering (even on a late TD), but I am very confident with the total going over 42 and Denver winning this game (as they very well should've in the playoffs). In a rematch game and a lot of turnover seen in Baltmore's defense, I'll take...

    DEN -2 & Over 42 for 2 lightning bolts

  2. #2
    slacker00
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    Smooth play, purely from a numbers perspective. You are teasing across all of the best numbers possible.

  3. #3
    a4u2fear
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    1-0 +2u

    still not sure what angle to play the Bills/Pats game. Manuel has looked good and a new coaching staff could surprise. Spiller plays really well vs the Pats. Brady is Brady but I can't trust their new WR core to lay 10+ on the road. The Bills have zero in the secondary but a decent front 4. May just play the over. Heard rumors the Pats will be running a lot more this year and the Bills couldn't stop the run last year so I just don't know. All these reason will probably just make me pass.

  4. #4
    a4u2fear
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    Always found it to be a good thing to stay away from unders the first week as you just don't know how the teams will perform, but will post them as leans to track them:
    Ten/Pit U42
    Chi/Cin U41.5
    NYJ/TB U40
    STL/Ari U42

  5. #5
    2daBank
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    Quote Originally Posted by a4u2fear View Post
    1-0 +2u

    still not sure what angle to play the Bills/Pats game. Manuel has looked good and a new coaching staff could surprise. Spiller plays really well vs the Pats. Brady is Brady but I can't trust their new WR core to lay 10+ on the road. The Bills have zero in the secondary but a decent front 4. May just play the over. Heard rumors the Pats will be running a lot more this year and the Bills couldn't stop the run last year so I just don't know. All these reason will probably just make me pass.
    i agree the over is where it is at in this one, just wrote a lot about it in my thread feel free to stop by and discuss. id love the bills here if EJ hadnt had his preseason cut short.. gl on the season A4

  6. #6
    2daBank
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    Quote Originally Posted by a4u2fear View Post
    Always found it to be a good thing to stay away from unders the first week as you just don't know how the teams will perform, but will post them as leans to track them:
    Ten/Pit U42
    Chi/Cin U41.5
    NYJ/TB U40
    STL/Ari U42
    surprised sea/car didnt make the lean cut as i think the the best under of the week..also have my eye on mia/cle either 1st half or gm under...that zona/rams total is interesting, def feel like both defenses better than the offenses here but both special teams have big time return gms, both defenses have some ball hawks in the secondary, rams dline should be all over palmer. so while i get the under lean based off very good defenses and suspect offenses i think we see a gm where both sp/defenses either score or set up short fields for the offenses on numerous occasions..

  7. #7
    a4u2fear
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    surprised sea/car didnt make the lean cut as i think the the best under of the week..also have my eye on mia/cle either 1st half or gm under...that zona/rams total is interesting, def feel like both defenses better than the offenses here but both special teams have big time return gms, both defenses have some ball hawks in the secondary, rams dline should be all over palmer. so while i get the under lean based off very good defenses and suspect offenses i think we see a gm where both sp/defenses either score or set up short fields for the offenses on numerous occasions..
    Very true, but for me special teams can be so random in the outcomes of games that I don't like to let it change my mind one way or another on a total

  8. #8
    2daBank
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    Quote Originally Posted by a4u2fear View Post
    Very true, but for me special teams can be so random in the outcomes of games that I don't like to let it change my mind one way or another on a total
    tru, and certainly wouldnt base a play solely on expecting them but think petterson and austin are elite enough it gotta be worth a few points at least. plus the short fields provided by the defenses is certainly something that can be capped i believe.. when/if palmer does have time to throw while i love rams corners their safties the glaring weakness in that d so not beyond the realm of possibility fitz or floyd hit them deep, on other side while i think rams offense will do what they been doing forever and prob stall when they do reach red zone givens is turning into a guy that you can almost count on to blow the top off a defense at least once and with the gambling nature of zona's dbs think that a given..it really a tough total cause 20-17 the kind of gm these teams play quite often but have a feeling this one might get into the 20s...it a pass for me as ill prob be on zona +4.5 so gl whatever you decide

  9. #9
    a4u2fear
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    Plays:
    Cin +3 for one bowling ball
    Dal -3 for one Oreo
    GB/SF o48.5 for one ferret
    NO -3 for one home plate
    T6 NE -4 & Buf/NE o45.5 for two 1970 Apple computers

  10. #10
    a4u2fear
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    Teasers 1-1 -.4u
    Spreads 2-0-1 +2u
    Totals 1-0 +1u

    2013: 4-1-1 +2.6u

  11. #11
    a4u2fear
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    Liking Eagles tonight as I expect Shanahan to ease RG3 into the lineup. He will not be running all over the field in this one like last year

  12. #12
    a4u2fear
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    Eagles +4 for one football

  13. #13
    a4u2fear
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    Teasers 1-1 -.4u
    Spreads 3-0-1 +3u
    Totals 1-0 +1u


    2013: 5-1-1 +3.6u

    good first week, on to the next

  14. #14
    a4u2fear
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    Cashed an 8 team teaser at SBR too. A shame I didn't post it

    8 team teaser (FP)
    [453] NEW ENGLAND -½-110 (B+7)
    [457] ATLANTA +10-105 (B+7)
    [460] N.Y. JETS +9½-110 (B+7)
    [463] CINCINNATI +10-115 (B+7)
    [473] ARIZONA +11-110 (B+7)
    [475] GREEN BAY +11½-110 (B+7)
    [477] N.Y. GIANTS +10-110 (B+7)
    [482] SAN DIEGO +10EV (B+7)

  15. #15
    a4u2fear
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    Had to get my hands on this one early.

    T6 NO/TB o41 & Den/NYG o48.5 for two butt cheeks

  16. #16
    a4u2fear
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    I just don't know about this Jets/Pats game. Was at the Bills/Pats game last week and even though Brady is the best in the league, the lack of depth at WR made him look average. Plenty of plays the timing was off, there were also a lot of drops. Now take away Amendola and Vereen and that has to make them even worse right? Possibly add in Sudfield. Give Brady enough possessions and he will finally get his points, but laying 12-13 with them? I really can't spend my money that way.

    Then you have Geno Smith and the Jets who are not a good team, going on the road, never should've beaten TB. Even though I'd rather put my money on them getting 12-13, I don't think Smith is a good QB and can easily see them getting held to less than 14 pts.

    Putting this all together I will probably end up with my money on the under and hope that Geno Smith doesn't throw any pick 6s, and both teams favor their running games.

  17. #17
    a4u2fear
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    Cin -6.5 for three keyboards

    a few years ago the Bills were playing some good football, then their center was injured for a road game. With this injury, Fitzpatrick was forced to concentrate more on the handling of each snap rather than surveying the defense. With this loss of attention and plenty of bad snaps to go along with it, the Bills were smothered by the dolphins who had a great defense.

    Tying it in-
    the Steelers already had plenty of woes and they showed in a home loss to the Titans. Now, their center is out for the bengals game. The Bengals have a great defense and line and were already the better team. With the key loss of their center, I am hammering this as my play of the week

  18. #18
    PickoMoff
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    Quote Originally Posted by a4u2fear View Post
    Cin -6.5 for three keyboards

    a few years ago the Bills were playing some good football, then their center was injured for a road game. With this injury, Fitzpatrick was forced to concentrate more on the handling of each snap rather than surveying the defense. With this loss of attention and plenty of bad snaps to go along with it, the Bills were smothered by the dolphins who had a great defense.

    Tying it in-
    the Steelers already had plenty of woes and they showed in a home loss to the Titans. Now, their center is out for the bengals game. The Bengals have a great defense and line and were already the better team. With the key loss of their center, I am hammering this as my play of the week
    Yea Steeler are HURT big time. So I think I'm pounding it too!

    BOL!

  19. #19
    a4u2fear
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    Current Plays:
    T6 NO/TB o41 & Den/NYG o48.5 for two butt cheeks
    Cin -6.5 for three keyboards
    NE/NYJ u42.5 for one half of a magnet

  20. #20
    a4u2fear
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    NE/NYJ u42.5 for one half of a magnet

    Teasers 1-1 -.4u
    Spreads 3-0-1 +3u
    Totals 2-0 +1.5u


    2013: 6-1-1 +4.1u

  21. #21
    DoctorX79
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    Like your plays

  22. #22
    a4u2fear
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    Quote Originally Posted by DoctorX79 View Post
    Like your plays
    Thanks. Hockey is close!

  23. #23
    BlitzTheBooks
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    Lookin' good a4

  24. #24
    a4u2fear
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlitzTheBooks View Post
    Lookin' good a4


    Sunday Games I'm liking/checking out:
    Was +7
    Was/GB o49.5
    Jax +5, I really wish someone could talk me out of this one. Henne is definitely a serviceable backup and I think they are more than capable of beating the raiders here. Line is definitely a reflection of their performance in Indy last week and I don't think they cover here.
    Jax/Oak o40
    Sea -3
    Sea o44
    Hou o42.5

  25. #25
    a4u2fear
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    Current Plays:
    T6 NO/TB o41 & Den/NYG o48.5 for two butt cheeks
    Cin -6.5 for three keyboards

    Also liking:
    Bills +3
    Rams +6

  26. #26
    Hot Jerry
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    Any time 2 shitty teams playing against each other [ in this case Oakland - Jacksonville ] and one of them has to play a monster team the next week, [ Oakland is playing in Denver next week ] than the team that has to play a monster team next week will win this week !! So Oakland WILL WIN and because Oakland SHOULD NOT be favored over anyone 6 points or so , than I think that they will cover !! But if u want to play ML only on Oakland that is very smart way to go !! Oakland WILL WIN !! So always check the schedule who they have to play next week !!!!!!!!!!
    Last edited by Hot Jerry; 09-14-13 at 08:31 AM.

  27. #27
    a4u2fear
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hot Jerry View Post
    Any time 2 shitty teams playing against each other [ in this case Oakland - Jacksonville ] and one of them has to play a monster team the next week, [ Oakland is playing in Denver next week ] than the team that has to play a monster team next week will win this week !! So Oakland WILL WIN and because Oakland SHOULD NOT be favored over anyone 6 points or so , than I think that they will cover !! But if u want to play ML only on Oakland that is very smart way to go !! Oakland WILL WIN !! So always check the schedule who they have to play next week !!!!!!!!!!
    you did a poor job of convincing me. if that logic helps you win bets then so be it, it's a very weak strategy.

  28. #28
    a4u2fear
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    Current Plays:
    T6 NO/TB o41 & Den/NYG o48.5 for two butt cheeks
    Cin -6.5 for three keyboards
    STL +6 for one taco
    Buf +3 for one boxing glove
    Cle +6.5 for a half of a face
    TB +3 for a half of a drumstick
    T10 Was +17/Was o39.5/Hou +.5 for one turtle

    Wussed out on Jax/Oak. Can't put my money on Jax and expect a good return. Will wait for better spots.
    Last edited by a4u2fear; 09-14-13 at 10:39 AM. Reason: left out T10 units bet

  29. #29
    a4u2fear
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    Record:
    Teasers 1-1 -.4u
    Spreads 3-0-1 +3u
    Totals 2-0 +1.5u


    2013: 6-1-1 +4.1u

  30. #30
    daleduz
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    Does anyone receive Wunderdogs picks? (NFL and/or NCAA Picks)?

  31. #31
    a4u2fear
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    Record:
    Teasers 1-3 4u
    Spreads 5-2-1 +2.8u
    Totals 2-0 +1.5u




    2013: 8-5-1 +0.3u

    teasers ugh

  32. #32
    a4u2fear
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    Open bets:
    Cin -6.5 for three keyboards
    Pit TT u17.5 -122 for one check mark

  33. #33
    a4u2fear
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    I just can't figure out the steelers love I'm seeing everywhere. It's not just the titans game that swayed my decision. Do these people not understand how important the center position is? Are they solely basing their decision on prior years and not knowing how banged up Pit is along with how strong the Bengals D is? They surely will own the line defensively and Ben will be scrambling a lot.

    Dont get it but not changing my mind. I think most of the steeler money is by ignorance and newbies I guess.

    Go bengals

  34. #34
    a4u2fear
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    Open bets:
    Cin -6.5 for three keyboards
    Pit TT u17.5 -122 for one check mark

    Record:
    Teasers 1-3 -4u
    Spreads 6-2-1 +5.8u
    Totals 2-0 +1.5u
    Team Totals 1-0 +1u


    2013: 10-5-1 +4.3u

  35. #35
    Deol
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    Nice start, some free advice: Teasing O/U is much harder to hit than teasing sides.

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