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MobFade Preseason Week 2 Preview (9-0 last week! Woop!)
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-bettin...k-1-picks.html
That was our thread from last week. This week I'm going to try and get some projections out early to maybe jump on some soft opening lines. These aren't plays yet as lines haven't come out, but just some thoughts about where I think we should be and why. Plays will be posted in BOLD below. I'm also going to try a "star" system with 1, 2, and 3 star plays. Personally I'll be betting 1, 1.5, and 2 units respectively.
As I said last week this stuff mostly based just on coach psychology and how they've performed in the pre-season in the past, which to me would indicate how long they keep their starters in. This is looked on at a per-week basis and I think you can see some pretty obvious trends if you assume Week 1 starters see about half a quarter, Week 2 they should see a full quarter, Week 3 a full half, and Week 4 probably just half to a full quarter depending on how veteran the team is. It just makes sense that some coaches would value winning in the pre-season, some would maybe just value Week 3, some might not care at all, and various other combinations of apathy. Obviously we'll look at depth especially at QB and now add in a little bit of team psychology in a case like GB throwing up the goose at home last week.
Another thought I had last weekend was that I probably shouldn't assume a 3-point advantage for the home team when stadiums are maybe half full and everyone's just sitting around spectating. Or situations like in SD where it sounded on TV like they were playing much closer to Seattle than they actually were. It should probably only be 2 or 2.5, so maybe there is an inherent edge in betting road dogs in pre-season because 3 is such a key number and you'll probably keep seeing it be the baseline coin-toss line. Anyway, teams I'm already looking at:
Atlanta @ Baltimore - I think this should open BAL-4.5. I'll jump on -3, but probably wait it out a few hours to see where it starts moving if it opens -3.5 or -4. Baltimore, Houston, Seattle to me all have such deep rosters that I'll probably just tail them all pre-season until I have to start laying 4.5. On the road they should also be very teaser-friendly as small dogs. John Harbaugh 14-7 in pre-season, Mike Smith 3-13 in all weeks that are not the Week 3 big scrimmage game.
Carolina @ Philadelphia - How bout Matt Barkley? Kid looked real good I thought, though his stat line didn't reflect it. Another thought I had was Chip Kelly going for 2 like he did last week for no reason from a game-outcome perspective, can really throw a wrench in handicapping. Hopefully just testing out their 2-point offense but that could really come back to bite someone. I don't have an angle here, so I imagine this should just open -3 with PHI QB's being pretty deep. IDK, I'll see how I feel about it once lines come out and maybe it opens/goes to something crazy for no reason.
Detroit @ Cleveland - Jim Schwartz moves to 13-4 in the pre-season after a win last week. Cleveland looked good too, but I'm just gonna keep tailing Jimmy and that sweet, sweet goatee. Will jump on +3 for probably 2u, fist-pumping the whole way. Will have to think about anything below that, but definitely can see this being a big teaser play at something like +1. Line should be -PK IMO.
San Diego @ Chicago - SD just got embarrassed at home, Chicago played a close one out in Carolina but came up short. Both rookie HC's which as I said last thread historically have had a break-even record in pre-season. I think Chicago has the more talented roster but I can't say I'm too intimately familiar with their whole 90-man so gonna have to see what it posts at. IMO should be CHI-3.5-120 give or take 10 cents.
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Originally Posted by meridianboy00
