[Kababayan]

I've learned a lot from you all over the last few years. With NFL coming up, I was wondering if any of you have a good money management strategy that you use that you don't mind sharing (other than the obvious ones.) I know that some people here have talked about using hybrid labbys. Anyone have something that has been successful for you that you don't mind sharing? I'm will also be asking the same question in the other sections of SBR. Thanks in advance.

[Noleafclover]

I kind of mix fixed returns betting with kelly. Fixed Odds Sports Betting (book) ran a lot of Monte Carlo simulations on different money management systems. They found that Fixed Returns has a similar profit profile with a lower variance in outcome or risk of bankruptcy than flat betting in the listed ranges (odds on contests from 40-60% iirc).

As for kelly, of course it had the highest average return, and it also had nearly zero risk of absolute bankruptcy (most percentage systems share this trait, of course) but the large majority of kelly simulations resulted in a small loss. I'm afraid I don't remember the exact numbers. The takehome for me was the risk of increasing your bets after wins and decreasing them after losses. While from the inside, you don't have reason to expect a loss after a win, if I tell you I will flip a coin 2 times, and ask you to predict the outcome, what is your guess? 1 heads, 1 tails, which is bad news for kelly (in either order) or any constantly varying percentage-based system.

Yet the fact remains I like some bets more than others but still think the former may be worth playing. So I will sometimes put down 2 of my normal fixed returns units (this is why I say some kelly in it), and I've been happy with that so far. The bets that I thought were "locks" or w/e have seemed to hit at a higher clip (for football, 12-5 last 2 years I've been doing it iirc).

And it also seems silly to bet the same units after you've doubled your bankroll, so keeping things moderately flat you could consider either a bankroll adjustment at 25/50% profit. Compounding at 25% would give you more longterm profit but more vulnerability to streaks.

[SilverTongueFox]

Best money mgmt practices:
Dont wager on any preseason games
Dont wager on any regular season games
Dont wager on any wildcard, divisional or conference champ games
All the money you would have wagered on the above now put it on the NFC to win the Super Bowl

Best of luck to you!

[badbyzdmx]

Good read on Kelly if interested

http://www.guaranteedsportspick.com/...lly-criterion/

[Kababayan]

Thank you all.