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MobFade Preseason Week 1 Picks
This is by no means a new concept, but these are based mostly on coach records in preseason by week. I have also considered quality of depth, especially late round draft class strength over the last 2 years, and any other situation where coaches would have reason to keep key starters and mostly 1st unit players in the game longer than average. Week 1 is unique in that I think on average the fewest starters get the least amount of play time. I'm not sure this is true, but I think you definitely hold guys out that are still coming off surgeries in the offseason. Any guy who tweaked anything at all in OTA's or camp is going to get held out as well. You could make the argument that Week 4 gets the least amount of starter time, but I think there are situations where you want to see your entire starting unit out there again if they blew it in Week 3. If anyone has a resource on the average number of series by mostly starters per week in the preseason that would be cool.
These lines are going to be a bit shopped-around which everyone should be doing anyway, but I'll try to stick to what's available right now on the major sites available to US players.
BAL+3-110 @ TB (ASAP)
This line might get a little better and it looks like you can grab it now +3-100 a couple spots, but should close the 3.
Harbaugh is 4-1 in Week 1 of the preseason. Ozzie Newsome beasts every round of every draft so there are a ton of studs further down the depth chart. Baltimore lost a ton of starters from last year on D and it makes sense that they keep a few new starters out there for an extra drive. Schiano did win his Week 1 preseason game last year, but I think BAL is the better 90-man team and this line doesn't reflect that.
CIN+3-110 @ ATL (GAMEDAY)
Still juiced to -120 but it just makes sense that this sits at 3-110 for a bit so I'll wait it out. Teasing or buying it back to 3-130 are also options if it moves back to 2.5. I like to lock lines like this down about 5 hours prior to kickoff before the hammer drop on CIN if that happens.
This play is purely a Mike Smith fade. 1-4 in all weeks except Week 3 where he's 4-1. Makes sense that he doesn't give a shit until the big scrimmage game. Marvin Lewis is only 4-7, but 7-3 in Weeks 2 and 4, and only 2-8 Week 3. I interpret this as him valuing Week 3 less than the average, but putting more importance than average on the rest of the preseason.
NYJ @ DET-4-110 (ASAP)
I'll have to wait, but you can get this on 5dimes right now. I think the Jets drafted well and you'll probably see a decent dose of Geno, but Rex Ryan is 0-4 Week 1. Schwartz is only 2-2 Week 1, but is a preseason champ at 12-4 overall.
NE+4.5-110 @ PHI (YESTERDAY)
I booked this yesterday but like it at +4 also. Rookie head coaches you'd think would be more eager to win in their first preseason with a new team and you'd think they'd win more often than not (I did), but that's actually not true. All the starting Head Coaches in 2012 were a combined 66-66 in their rookie years. With new Head Coaches usually come new regimes, so you're probably seeing a new scheme and position coaches throughout the organization. None are potentially as pronounced as Chip Kelly coming to the NFL. While PHI has seemingly great depth at QB, NE does too with Mallet and Tebow (against non-starters). Also, Belichick is 10-4 Week 1 of the preseason.
AZ+3.5-110 @ GB (ASAP)
McCarthy 2-5 Week 1. Vet QB with a new team, I could see Palmer being out there for 2 series. You could make an argument for holding off and maybe the public sees Vince Young as worth the move to the 4.
HOU+1-110 @ MIN (ASAP)
Kubiak 5-2 Week 1, Frasier 0-2. HOU the far superior 90-man team. I've loved their last couple drafts.
CHI @ CAR-1.5-110 (GAMETIME)
Again, I booked this yesterday, but this might get closer to it's open of PK by kickoff. Right now you can only get this -2.5-110 and I like it there. Rivera 1-1 but I think you fade the veteran team. I also see no reason why this shouldn't be 3-110.
crackerjack gave MobFade 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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Can't wait to see how you do for the season.
