This prop was on the board last night, and is now off:
1st TD - BAL +115
SF -145
Does that mean that only one side got hit or they weren't comfortable with the action they were getting? I put a small amount on BAL at +115 last night and was looking to see if it was in agreement this morning.
1) Does anyone arrive at this being a marginal play as well?
2) What does a prop being pulled most likely mean?
It could be that they are getting a bit of a lopsided decision on it, but for this game that price looks about right to me.
The only thing I can think of that might possibly be a factor is whether both teams have a certain preference on whether they kick or defer after the coin toss.
If for instance San Fran tend to favour deferring the kick-off if they win the toss, and if for instance Baltimore tend to favour receiving the kick-off if they win the toss, then in theory that would suggest that there would be more of a chance of Baltimore receiving the kickoff regardless on who wins the toss, and as a result would affect all "Team to xxxx 1st" props.
Now I have absolutely no idea what each team prefers to do, and am not likely to look into it in that much depth either - and even if the preferences do favour one team, then it doesnt necessarily mean that on this occasion each team will stick to their favoured choice, but that is something that I could see affecting a prop such as this - but assuming all things equal, then +115 is about right for that prop in my mind, maybe slightly on the higher side of things, but well within range for a correct price.
Baltimore always defers FYI. I still like the play. That's pretty early for CRIS to put up props, and sometimes they only have them up for a bit, and then they will be back up later. Not really sure why, but it'll likely be back up soon.
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