1. 12-18-12 07:52 AM #1
    yungcapper
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    ATL -4 vs DET

    Im sure public will pound it, it looks fishy to me. Any insight on how ATL doesn't cover?
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  2. 12-18-12 07:54 AM #2
    PAULYPOKER
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    Public pounded the Clippers last night more than any other,what happened?
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  3. 12-18-12 09:06 AM #3
    brewcrew2k
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    The only way Atlanta doesn't cover is if Matt Ice throws 5 picks, or they don't take this game seriously.
    After the Lions loss last week, do you think they are going to play for pride or just be done with the season. I think they are done.
    Also Atlanta needs to win to lock up home field advantage.
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  4. 12-18-12 09:44 AM #4
    DIRTYDIRTY
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    dome on the road atl wins by 14
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  5. 12-18-12 10:21 AM #5
    yungcapper
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    This is why I dont understand the line.
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  6. 12-18-12 11:03 AM #6
    Slimpickens
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    Havent you guys been following the NFL this season. Look at how teams have been doing off of blow out losses as well as blow out wins. For example Giants blow out Saints 2 weeks ago then get thrashed by falcons. Cardonals lose by 58 and win in blowout fashion next week. Just look through the results all season and you will see.

    IMO the only thing we are betting on is if the Lions show up to play or not. Thats the only call. If they do show up I dont see how the Lions dont win outright in this "SPOT".
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  7. 12-18-12 11:22 AM #7
    freakydave
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimPickens View Post
    Havent you guys been following the NFL this season. Look at how teams have been doing off of blow out losses as well as blow out wins. For example Giants blow out Saints 2 weeks ago then get thrashed by falcons. Cardonals lose by 58 and win in blowout fashion next week. Just look through the results all season and you will see.

    IMO the only thing we are betting on is if the Lions show up to play or not. Thats the only call. If they do show up I dont see how the Lions dont win outright in this "SPOT".
    No offence slim but your examples are poor comparisons.
    Cardinals get blownout by a playoff team & then beat up a 6-6 team at home--Giants beat up a non playoff team & got beat soundly by a playoff team(Gmen beat atl at home in the playoffs last year)-Seattle who thrashed arizona went on to thrash buffalo on the road. Atl will cover.
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  8. 12-18-12 11:35 AM #8
    Slimpickens
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    Quote Originally Posted by freakydave View Post
    No offence slim but your examples are poor comparisons.
    Cardinals get blownout by a playoff team & then beat up a 6-6 team at home--Giants beat up a non playoff team & got beat soundly by a playoff team(Gmen beat atl at home in the playoffs last year)-Seattle who thrashed arizona went on to thrash buffalo on the road. Atl will cover.
    Look at the results this season. You tell me if it is profitable to play back a winner ATS of more than 3 touchdowns the previous week as well as how teams that got beat by 21 have gone on to do ATS the following game.
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  9. 12-18-12 12:02 PM #9
    Hombrebueno
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    Every game is a new game. Trends don't mean something WILL happen.
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  10. 12-18-12 12:05 PM #10
    Slimpickens
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    Im not saying Detroit is a sinch at all, just saying there are reasons to not fall in love with the likliest public side of the week. Isnt that what this thread is for?
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  11. 12-18-12 12:17 PM #11
    freakydave
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimPickens View Post
    Look at the results this season. You tell me if it is profitable to play back a winner ATS of more than 3 touchdowns the previous week as well as how teams that got beat by 21 have gone on to do ATS the following game.
    By your reasoning slim TB & GMEN are locks.I am not going to argue the trends you present.
    I am simply asserting that you are ignoring the calibre of the opponent & the home road situation.
    Plus in your original post you give no reason as to why after 6 straight losses (5 of which vs teams with winning records)the detroit lions "will show up"

    I'll take my chances with Atl to buck the trend.
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  12. 12-18-12 12:30 PM #12
    Hombrebueno
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    Det is 1-5 ATS last 6
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  13. 12-18-12 12:30 PM #13
    Slimpickens
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    Yes, I do like the Giants this week. You are right though and thats what we are betting on if Detroit shows up or not. I dont expect Atlanta to come with there A game after winning there game of the year last week. Its all about if the Lions come to play or not. If they play there A game I dont see how they dont win but granted it is a big IF.
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  14. 12-18-12 12:33 PM #14
    freakydave
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimPickens View Post
    Yes, I do like the Giants this week. You are right though and thats what we are betting on if Detroit shows up or not. I dont expect Atlanta to come with there A game after winning there game of the year last week. Its all about if the Lions come to play or not. If they play there A game I dont see how they dont win but granted it is a big IF.
    I am on the gmen too but TB idk...
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  15. 12-18-12 12:35 PM #15
    Slimpickens
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    Quote Originally Posted by freakydave View Post
    I am on the gmen too but TB idk...
    Agreed. Would be TB or nothing for me I just dont fade teams that get blown out the previous week especially if they are installed as the favorite the following week.
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  16. 12-18-12 03:32 PM #16
    freakydave
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimPickens View Post
    Agreed. Would be TB or nothing for me I just dont fade teams that get blown out the previous week especially if they are installed as the favorite the following week.
    I couldn't believe the saints rolled TB like that I am still in shock.That said STL's season is over & they might have a big let down on the road.Plus they go to Seattle next & that game might even be more on their minds TB.Uh oh I am slowly convincing myself to parlay the Gmen to TB ---

    I may have to blame you if this goes south?
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  17. 12-18-12 03:39 PM #17
    easyliving
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    detroit is shit falcons win big
    Points Awarded:

    freakydave gave easyliving 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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  18. 12-18-12 04:54 PM #18
    SmittyZ28
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    Already on Atlanta for 2X@ -4.5+110
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  19. 12-18-12 05:05 PM #19
    OTL
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimPickens View Post
    Yes, I do like the Giants this week. You are right though and thats what we are betting on if Detroit shows up or not. I dont expect Atlanta to come with there A game after winning there game of the year last week. Its all about if the Lions come to play or not. If they play there A game I dont see how they dont win but granted it is a big IF.
    Don't place bets on ifs, only certainties. Much better games to risk your money on this week.
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  20. 12-18-12 05:37 PM #20
    Slimpickens
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    Quote Originally Posted by OTL View Post
    Don't place bets on ifs, only certainties. Much better games to risk your money on this week.
    Certanties in gambling???
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  21. 12-18-12 05:45 PM #21
    OTL
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimPickens View Post
    Certanties in gambling???
    Yeah, like a team having the motivation to show up for a big game. Neither side has much motivation in this matchup. Maybe Detroit wanting to salvage what little pride they have left, but thats anyones guess too.
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  22. 12-18-12 06:11 PM #22
    Hombrebueno
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    The Falcons are still playing for the bye and HFA...how is that not motivation?
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  23. 12-19-12 10:45 PM #23
    lolbear
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    let's cash this
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  24. 12-20-12 12:10 PM #24
    freakydave
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    Quote Originally Posted by OTL View Post
    Yeah, like a team having the motivation to show up for a big game. Neither side has much motivation in this matchup. Maybe Detroit wanting to salvage what little pride they have left, but thats anyones guess too.
    Det has lost 6 in a row & people have talking about pride for 3 weeks.
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  25. 12-20-12 12:19 PM #25
    Wboyt
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    Quote Originally Posted by freakydave View Post
    Det has lost 6 in a row & people have talking about pride for 3 weeks.
    This.
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  26. 12-20-12 12:24 PM #26
    JakeLc
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    Calvin Johnson wants to break the record. It's safe to assume they will be tossing the ball in his direction a lot
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  27. 12-20-12 02:04 PM #27
    freakydave
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    Quote Originally Posted by JakeLc View Post
    Calvin Johnson wants to break the record. It's safe to assume they will be tossing the ball in his direction a lot
    I am sure he'll be double covered(most of the time) like every other team that has played them this year.Det is 4-10 for a reason & it isn't bad bounces.
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  28. 12-20-12 02:08 PM #28
    JakeLc
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    I'm not saying bet them but some of the players do have some motivation.. They do play some close games at home.
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  29. 12-20-12 02:14 PM #29
    Hombrebueno
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    They also wear bags on their heads at home.
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  30. 12-20-12 02:18 PM #30
    freakydave
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    Quote Originally Posted by JakeLc View Post
    I'm not saying bet them but some of the players do have some motivation.. They do play some close games at home.
    I know what you are saying but forcing the ball to megatron to break a record is recipe for defeat not victory & they have a game after this one so they shouldn't be targeting him anymore than usual.
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  31. 12-20-12 02:26 PM #31
    JakeLc
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    I've also read that besides getting the record he wants to get to 2000 yards so I guess we'll see how it plays out. Knowing he might be force fed the ball would obviously help Atlanta's defense.
    I'm not betting the DET/ATL game.
    If Bears beat Arizona I will be looking to play Detroit in the last game of the season.
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  32. 12-20-12 02:45 PM #32
    freakydave
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    Quote Originally Posted by JakeLc View Post
    I've also read that besides getting the record he wants to get to 2000 yards so I guess we'll see how it plays out. Knowing he might be force fed the ball would obviously help Atlanta's defense.
    I'm not betting the DET/ATL game.
    If Bears beat Arizona I will be looking to play Detroit in the last game of the season.
    I don't follow you expect Det to beat a bears team who if they win at arizona will need to beat det to have any real shot of making the playoffs?
    FTR I have arizona +5 & ML on sun.
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  33. 12-20-12 02:48 PM #33
    JakeLc
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    If it plays out where Bears win and Atlanta wins I will probably get a fair price on a home dog Detroit last week of the season. Bad blood between these 2 teams
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  34. 12-20-12 02:52 PM #34
    freakydave
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    Quote Originally Posted by JakeLc View Post
    If it plays out where Bears win and Atlanta wins I will probably get a fair price on a home dog Detroit last week of the season. Bad blood between these 2 teams
    Fair enough if it works out & the price is right I'll
    tail you but I think arizona is going to give DA bears & 49ers all they can handle.
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  35. 12-20-12 02:55 PM #35
    JakeLc
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    Motivation is always a question mark for some teams at this point in the season.
    I think Lions will get up for the game against Bears.
    Betting against the Bears the past weeks has good to me. I'm really tempted to bet AZ but I haven't yet.
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