[MobFade]

I haven't been around the last couple weeks because I lost a good feel for the ebb and flow of the NFL. Looking at the games this week, everything makes sense again. Here are some early plays to book now B

DETROIT+3.5-115 // TOP BET
BUFFALO+4.5-110 // BOOKMAKER
NEW ORLEANS+3-120 // BOOKMAKER
TAMPA BAY-3-110 // BOOKMAKER


Great value on Detroit after their let down against the reeling Cardinals. Atlanta had been criticized in recent weeks for a record that was outpacing their play on the field, but the blowout against the Giants has quieted that for now. 88% of Public Bets on Atlanta, but when the SBR Consensus comes out, I guarantee a Public/Sharp split and some "RLM" back to 3.

Buffalo just got embarrased in Toronto and the Dolphins are coming off a win hosting Jacksonville. These teams are fairly equal, but I think Buffalo has the clear offensive advantage w/ Spiller, even against that MIA front 4 as well as in their receiving corps. Buffalo's front 4 has been playing at a high level the last few weeks outside of that game in Seattle, but Miami doesn't have the same multi-dimensional offensive attack that Seattle has, and I don't see them having a problem containing Miami's backfield. IMO, line should be 3, so I looking getting the hook across the 4. Public action is split, but line is coming down to 4 almost across the board which might indicate early sharp action on the +4.5. Book it now

New Orleans stock pretty high, but Dallas isn't exactly in the gutter in the public eye either. I like New Orleans for a lot of reasons getting a FG. Dallas has won a lot of close games with margins of victory of 7, 6, 5, 15, 3, 5, 1 and 3 with the 15 point win being a late push against the Eagles in their first meeting. After all their injuries on the interior, Dallas' defensive strength is in their secondary, and I trust Brees and his weapons to be able to pick apart holes in that defense. Dallas also does not have a great HFA in that cavern of a stadium. I don't know if this line moves to the 2.5, but NO seems like the clear side here on the 3 and the public so far agrees with 79% of bets on NO.

Tampa Bay laid the egg in NO due to a ton of turnovers, but I expect Schiano to motivate his guys after humiliation like that. St Louis was similarly routed in a game that's score looked closer at the end than it actually was. I've liked both of these teams as undervalued dogs, but at the end of the day, TB is the better team and their only laying 3. Their most obvious hole is with their corners, but the Rams don't have the personnel to really exploit it like elite quarterbacks are able to.

More plays and leans as the week goes on.

[Eagles27]

Not seeing Detroit, they have been Garbage all season, dont see why that all of a sudden changes against ATL -3 (if you buy the hook almost seems like a gift). I do like NO, TB I am forever staying away from after they cost me money on Sunday. No comment on Buffalo. Just my two cents (which is about all its worth) lol

[king_danilo92]

detroit..? cmon man..

[Slimpickens]

Your probably right on Detroit, there was no way they were going to win yesterday in that spot. If the "Real" Lions come to play they will prolly win by double digits.

[MobFade]

Why all the hate on Detroit. This play really jumped out at me and I wanted to lock it in now because it will move to 3. What is Atlanta playing for? HFA throughout, which they can clinch with a win here or in Week 17. Detroit is playing for pride at this point, which to me is slightly more motivating than really clinching that 1 seed.

If this game is in ATL, this equates to -8.5 to -9.5 depending on how much you weight HFA. Atlanta isn't a great road team, and Detroit has an above average HFA. easy play on DET

[Slimpickens]

I can get the Lions at +4 -110 right now. I see at 5Dimes its Lions +3.5 @-115. Pretty sure I should jump on the +4 now. Where do you guys think this line closes?

[MobFade]

Some leans for Week 16:

Kansas City right now getting 6 points hosting Indianapolis. IND still probably the most overrated team in the NFL and the Chiefs' biggest problem all season had been turnovers which they have turned around in recent weeks. KC getting shutout by OAK looks terrible, and KC is not a good team by any means, but they aren't that much worse than IND. Here are some stats:

Offense:
KC: 5.0 YPP / 6.2 YPP PASS / 4.6 YPP RUSH / 2.4 TURNOVERS PER GAME
IND: 5.3 YPP / 7.1 YPP PASS / 3.9 YPP RUSH / 1.9 TURNOVERS PER GAME

Defense:
KC: 5.9 YPP / 8.0 YPP PASS / 4.6 YPP RUSH / .9 TURNOVERS PER GAME
IND: 5.9 YPP/ 7.4 YPP PASS / 4.8 YPP RUSH / .7 TURNOVERS PER GAME

So far 96% of public bets on Indy, but 5Dimes already moved to 5.5 and Pinny is almost there. Where do you think the sharp money is at? I'm going to monitor this because with so much public volume, you would think it could creep up to 6.5 to buy to 7, but it seems unlikely.

Seattle hosting San Francisco. I thought the opening line was right at about Seattle-2.5, but it looks like SF will be a favorite for at least a couple days this week. Another good angle on this game is to throw either team into a teaser if you can get them from +1.5. These two teams are pretty much clones of each other with SF having the advantage on both lines, and Seattle with maybe a slight advantage at the skill positions. CLink is going to be insane with a night game in Seattle with this being a must-win for Seattle if they want to win the division and I would say it's probably a 3.5 point HFA for this game. If I had to quantify it, I would say SF is .5 to 1 point better than the Seahawks neutral field, so getting Seattle as a dog is an easy play. I also like the over in this game after letting everyone hammer it down to around 38. Both offenses look much better than the last time these two met w/ Kaep in the backfield and RW developing quickly.

[MobFade]

I can get the Lions at +4 -110 right now. I see at 5Dimes its Lions +3.5 @-115. Pretty sure I should jump on the +4 now. Where do you guys think this line closes?

I think it closes at a shaded 3, something like DET+3+100 or +3.5-125. It will probably move down to the 3, but you'll have a lot of support for Atlanta there that doesn't let it stay at -3-110. I would book the 4 now if you agree w/ Detroit being the play because it's not closing there.

[Slimpickens]

I just noticed this is a Saturday game. Why not Thursday I wonder?

[joco]

bucs have lost 3 or 4 in a row havnt they?

[MobFade]

bucs have lost 3 or 4 in a row havnt they?

4 straight, yes. Atlanta by 1, Denver by 8, Philly by 2 in that 4th quarter meltdown and then being dismantled by NO. They should have beaten Philly, and were in great position to beat Atlanta. Again, their only liability is their cornerbacks. Tampa is giving up 8.1 YPP through the air which is 3rd worst in the league, but allow a league-best 3.3 YPC. Their offense is top 5 being top 10 in both rushing and passing YPP. The Rams on the other hand are surprisingly bad on defense: 23rd overall in YPP allowed. Their offense is expectedly bad at 24th in YPP gained.

[Slimpickens]

I think it closes at a shaded 3, something like DET+3+100 or +3.5-125. It will probably move down to the 3, but you'll have a lot of support for Atlanta there that doesn't let it stay at -3-110. I would book the 4 now if you agree w/ Detroit being the play because it's not closing there.

Oh my, now its +4 everywhere.

[MobFade]

Oh my, now its +4 everywhere.

Haha, ya looks like must have been steam in the last hour while it was about to break to the 3 on some books. Not a good sign that it is uniform on the 4, especially with all the public money still on ATL. If you got it on the 4 you're still good but if you haven't then I would see if it gets to 4.5.

[Slimpickens]

Haha, ya looks like must have been steam in the last hour while it was about to break to the 3 on some books. Not a good sign that it is uniform on the 4, especially with all the public money still on ATL. If you got it on the 4 you're still good but if you haven't then I would see if it gets to 4.5.

Yea, when I noticed it wasnt til Saturday I decided to wait a bit. Lets see where it goes from here. I do respect the early money, and it is a tough call if the Lions show up or not. If they play there best game which is a Huge IF they should win fairly easily in this spot.

[MobFade]

Yea, when I noticed it wasnt til Saturday I decided to wait a bit. Lets see where it goes from here. I do respect the early money, and it is a tough call if the Lions show up or not. If they play there best game which is a Huge IF they should win fairly easily in this spot.

Ya honestly I didn't see that it was a Saturday game before I got it this morning. Public is all over Atlanta, and I took line movement from 3.5 closer to 3 to mean that there was support for Detroit at 3.5, but looks like there was more for Atlanta at the 3. Live and learn I guess, and hopefully it doesn't come back to bite me.

[Slimpickens]

Ya honestly I didn't see that it was a Saturday game before I got it this morning. Public is all over Atlanta, and I took line movement from 3.5 closer to 3 to mean that there was support for Detroit at 3.5, but looks like there was more for Atlanta at the 3. Live and learn I guess, and hopefully it doesn't come back to bite me.

If the Lions are live in this spot which we both believe they are I still think this line closes at 3.5. I thought it was Thursday too.

[BennyFang]

Yeah I went square with the Falcons early on this one. Got it with my local at -3 -115. I think the Falcons' "ebb" was the Carolina game. In short, the Falcons will have plenty of motivation, yes HFA, everyone (including the players themselves) knows that it is their only hope to get to the SB. They won't win a playoff game in Frisco...or Green Bay....or Seattle, etc. I really don't think they want it to come down to one game (home vs TB) for HFA in the NFL (any given Sunday). On the other side, I think the Lions have quit on their lame duck staff. The Colts game was the last straw, the last of three straight heartbreaking losses in a row, all at home. If the Lions' DL can throw the Falcons' offensive scheme out of whack, they have a chance. I don't think that will happen. Either way, Stafford will make his share of mistakes.

Otherwise, I do like the Seattle and Buffalo plays....BOL

[AKATDOG]

the line opened atl -3 at my books

[naslax13]

Lions+4 and eagles+4 take em to the bank.. And over 45 on oak/car

[MobFade]

Just added TEN+1 for MNF Week 15 for .5 unit. Need at least a little skin in this game to even watch it.

[MobFade]

Today I learned that Chris Johnson is the worst running back in the NFL. No vision, no balance, no decisiveness, and absolutely no power. Line is in shambles, yes, but he consistently is unable to hit the holes that are available ... just dances around in the backfield for 2 seconds and goes down as soon as someone gets a hand on him.

[2daBank]

Why all the hate on Detroit. This play really jumped out at me and I wanted to lock it in now because it will move to 3. What is Atlanta playing for? HFA throughout, which they can clinch with a win here or in Week 17. Detroit is playing for pride at this point, which to me is slightly more motivating than really clinching that 1 seed.

If this game is in ATL, this equates to -8.5 to -9.5 depending on how much you weight HFA. Atlanta isn't a great road team, and Detroit has an above average HFA. easy play on DET

det and pride dont belong in the same sentence...plenty of better words to use, poorly coached, undisciplined, stupid, all more fitting..i would think atl goes up there and takes care of getting the 1 seed..det secondary is abysmal so how they stop julio, white and gonzo beyond me...gl

[MobFade]

Detroit: Offense 5.6 YPP, Defense 5.4 YPP
Atlanta: Offense 5.8 YPP, Defense 5.9 YPP

Any team that is getting over a FG at home that has ^this^ statistical edge is an auto-bet IMO. To break it down even further:

Rush Offense:
Detroit: 4.2
Atlanta: 3.7

Pass Offense
Detroit: 6.9
Atlanta: 7.8

Rush Defense
Detroit: 4.9
Atlanta: 4.6

Pass Defense
Detroit: 6.8
Atlanta: 7.4

I know the loss to Arizona stings, but you know better bank....

[2daBank]

zona was actually one of few things i had right last week (well atl also), i base very little on what happened the week before..i been saying that same shit about det going back to last season,,if you wanna trust them more power to ya but there no fukkin way id play them..all those stats well and good but the numbers that sum det up best is their yards per point (way to high), and yards per point against (worst in league), meaning det numbers are empty as they dont translate into scores (backed up by their bottom 3rd of the league in points per play), then you look at atl who is among the best in opponents ypp because they unlike det dont put their d in bad positions, dont have tons of drive killing penalties, have a positive turnover margin, and the list goes on...atl does the little things right and takes adv of opportunities, det is their own worst enemy and makes things as hard as possible on themselves...i get atl off a huge win and det off embarrassing loss and maybe if atl had home field tied up already i could see it, but that just not enough for me when i know even if atl a little flat and det is on top of their gm they will still give atl every chance to steal the win as lions at their best still make tons of dumb mistakes throughout a gm and for the most part atl does not... gl

[MobFade]

zona was actually one of few things i had right last week (well atl also), i base very little on what happened the week before..i been saying that same shit about det going back to last season,,if you wanna trust them more power to ya but there no fukkin way id play them..all those stats well and good but the numbers that sum det up best is their yards per point (way to high), and yards per point against (worst in league), meaning det numbers are empty as they dont translate into scores (backed up by their bottom 3rd of the league in points per play), then you look at atl who is among the best in opponents ypp because they unlike det dont put their d in bad positions, dont have tons of drive killing penalties, have a positive turnover margin, and the list goes on...atl does the little things right and takes adv of opportunities, det is their own worst enemy and makes things as hard as possible on themselves...i get atl off a huge win and det off embarrassing loss and maybe if atl had home field tied up already i could see it, but that just not enough for me when i know even if atl a little flat and det is on top of their gm they will still give atl every chance to steal the win as lions at their best still make tons of dumb mistakes throughout a gm and for the most part atl does not... gl

All good points.

[Slimpickens]

Lions money coming in as expected. Back to 3.5

[MobFade]

Ya I still feel like a chump for biting on that early move toward 3 because I should have known it would rebound off there especially with the public all over it early. Don't feel too bad about 3.5, but 4.5 would have been nicer. Bank also officially scared me off of the ML, so I'll just stick with 1 unit DET+3.5

[MobFade]

Couple more plays and leans:

JACKSONVILLE+14.5-110 // TOP BET
MINNESOTA+7.5-110 // TOP BET

Jax getting 2 TD's and the hook at home is just too good to pass up. Same with Minny on the road playing for a playoff spot.
PITTSBURGH at home against Cincy is the lean, but I probably won't take it unless I can get the 3. Pitt getting healthier on both sides of the ball and Cincy is the more public team right now and we're getting decent value. A healthy Pitt is always -7 here. I respect what Cincy's D-line can do, but Ben is mobile and I don't think they allow themselves to lose to Cincy at home.
BALTIMORE would be the slightest lean of the week, but even then only if it got to +3. I heard a pretty good angle on some radio program, maybe the Herd earlier this week. Someone was saying the NYG seem to be buying into what everyone is saying about them being a clutch team and coming on late to make it into the playoffs and then really turning it on, and they have been playing like that it's a given that it will happen. I think the loss in Atlanta snaps them out of it, but Baltimore too is a team that has been really under-performing. No idea why they fired their coordinator this late in the season, but that change has me scared to play them, other than the fact that maybe 2 weeks is enough to acclimate to a system that I can't imagine is much different this late in the season from what they were running before. Again, probably staying away, but if I need more action on Sunday, this might be the game I add if the price is right.

[Pickem2win]

The Lions vs Falcons line went from -2.5 on Sunday night, to -3.5 on Monday to -4.5 on Tuesday. 88% of all bets are coming in on the Falcons and they need one more win for HFA throughout the playoffs. You think that the Lions who just got SMOKED by the lowly Cardinals are somehow gonna pull out the miracle win against a 12-2 team? They are 5-2 on the road compared to the Lions who are 2-4 at home. Good luck throwing away your money....Ill take my "chances" with the Falcons.

[2daBank]

dont let me sway you too much bro,, i by no means lovin atl here, hate these gms where i know everyone will be on atl and mostly for reasons that have nothing to do with the outcome (like det getting beat by zona, or atl showing out vs nyg)..far as the "spot" goes i agree with you it favorable for the lions, i just dont trust them at all, i think they will play hard and not like they couldnt win but ultimately i expect them to do what they do and unravel at some point with costly mistakes and i gotta think atl would like to just get the 1 seed and be done with it...think it prob be close one way or the other, whether it atl jumping out then letting off the gas and det making a comeback or det comes out with the energy and it tight until lions make a bad mistake atl can capitalize on, neither would surprise me and fg gm def a possibility,,im gonna look at more and maybe the total as well...

[MobFade]

The yards per point stats for both teams were pretty glaring in favor of ATL. Never factored that stat in ... usually just red zone, but I think the one you brought up is much more telling, though I do think a stat like that will eventually regress a bit more to the mean. My capping process usually goes: what I think the line should be, what I think it will be based on last couple games and public perception, then look at actual line and see if there are any glaring discrepancies. From there, I'll cap the games based on stats/injuries/weather/HFA and see if there are any more discrepancies and if it is congruent with my own perceptions.

In this case, my thinking was similar to what Slim was saying above; that Detroit is a 'live dog'. They are a team like TB, STL, CLE, SD, CAR, ARI, SEA, CIN, MIA, MIN, etc have been through various points in the year that shouldn't ever figure to lose by more than a TD and SHOULD always be a good bet as a home dog getting more than a FG.

I appreciate the insight, and there are very few other people on this board that would cause me to re-thinkt my initial assessment.

[MobFade]

The Lions vs Falcons line went from -2.5 on Sunday night, to -3.5 on Monday to -4.5 on Tuesday. 88% of all bets are coming in on the Falcons and they need one more win for HFA throughout the playoffs. You think that the Lions who just got SMOKED by the lowly Cardinals are somehow gonna pull out the miracle win against a 12-2 team? They are 5-2 on the road compared to the Lions who are 2-4 at home. Good luck throwing away your money....Ill take my "chances" with the Falcons.

Be sure to check back on Sunday after ATL blows DET out.

[MobFade]

SAN DIEGO+3-135 // BOOKMAKER

Bought the 3. McElroy is starting and as much as no one wants to hear this, he is going to have Jets fans chanting "Sanchez" by the 4th quarter. San Diego front 4 are no slouches and with both coaches playing for their jobs, I expect them to be similarly prepared. Only problem for Jets is that they have Ryan/Sparano calling the plays to a guy with no starts, and Rivers has played in a few games. With both teams out of the playoffs, not a chance the Jets players are motivated for this after being the laughingstock of pro football on Monday.

Only shots Jets have to cover is if Tebow comes in by halftime to go 6/15 for 55 yards 1 INT and 75 yards/1 TD rushing for the last minute 4 point win.

[Hombrebueno]

Lions are in disarray. Why anyone bets them blows my mind. This game is either ATL or nothing.

[Slimpickens]

Lions are in disarray. Why anyone bets them blows my mind. This game is either ATL or nothing.

In the spot both teams are in how any1 is laying over a field goal with Atlanta blows my mind. To any experienced investor I dont see how its not Lions or nothing.