[walktheline]

Handicapping isn't easy, is it? The answer to that question varies depending on whether you're winning or losing. Well, as far as handicapping New England Patriot home games are concerned, it's very easy.

There is a lot of media build up for this game and rightfully so, since it combines the two best teams (combined records wise, this late in the season) facing off on Monday Night Football. That's great for media hype, but this game isn't as critical as it seems. If you want to buy the "potential #1 seed position, home field advantage, bye spot, etc" talk, go right ahead. In hindsight, this game probably doesn't have an impact on any of those things..

Sometimes basic math is the best math. If I offered you a -200 price on a wager that was 73-13 (84.8%) over the last 12 years, would you take that bet simply based relevant historical data? Absolutely. What if that same trend was an astonishing 27-2 (93.1%) since 2009? Do I even need to ask?

Well, you'll get that chance tomorrow night when the Texans visit the Patriots. The numbers above are none other than Brady's home win/loss record. If you want to get cute and try to find justification for why the Texans will win and/or cover, be my guest. It's the classic case of trying to find an angle or trying to be "sharp" when there isn't even a need to crack the book. I don't need any larger of a sample size or more justification. Neither should you..

New England ML, -200, 30 units to win 15.

[OnTheLine1234]

Have not been in here for a while, but dropped in to check things out because i had a little free time from capping games.(glad i did) walktheline, this has to be one of my all time favorite posts!!! No Joke!! A cross of Summary of Trends and Simplicity. Thanks!!! hope everyone gets a chance to read your thread, a lot of people in this bussiness over think(analyze) games and thus begins second guessing themselfs.

[2daBank]

that is all well and good but i think it fair to say after going back and looking over the last 3 years they have had a incredibly soft home schedule over that time with very few playoff contending teams (sure a few) and they have also lost at home 2 of last 3 years in playoffs to quality opponents..not to diminish it cause they all nfl teams and ya still gotta go out and beat them but seriously not a lot of powerhouses been coming to foxboro (1 maybe 2 each year and the playoffs teams that beat them 2 of last 3 yrs in their house),,id argue hou may be best team that been here in reg season anyway the last few yrs (did beat balt last season, exacting a little playoff revenge) but there a whole bunch of bad teams that help compile that number....

pretty sure i agree with pats cause foster been struggling and pats run d solid. Seems like a gm where there lot of passing and all things equal obviously u take Brady over Shaub but not so sure they equal as hou despite some issues in secondary still the better d, pats lost another weapon last week and Hernandez is gimpy,, might be a woodhead gm as they need to replace some of Edelman production.. Starting to consider over, still lean pats but it just not right saying based off pats compiling that 29-2 record against handful of decent/goood teams and bunch of bums that those the odds they win this gm,

[walktheline]

Have not been in here for a while, but dropped in to check things out because i had a little free time from capping games.(glad i did) walktheline, this has to be one of my all time favorite posts!!! No Joke!! A cross of Summary of Trends and Simplicity. Thanks!!! hope everyone gets a chance to read your thread, a lot of people in this bussiness over think(analyze) games and thus begins second guessing themselfs.

Thank you OnTheLine.

2daBank, how much larger of a sample size do you need? This is the NFL, the caliber of teams you play on a weekly basis doesn't vary nearly as much as you're making it sound. While Team A can obviously be better than Team B, the old cliche of "anyone in this league can beat you" is becoming more and more true each day. Parity is apparent, 27-2 is 27-2. That's the Pats taking care of business week in, week out at an historically efficient level at home.

[2daBank]

Thank you OnTheLine.

2daBank, how much larger of a sample size do you need? This is the NFL, the caliber of teams you play on a weekly basis doesn't vary nearly as much as you're making it sound. While Team A can obviously be better than Team B, the old cliche of "anyone in this league can beat you" is becoming more and more true each day. Parity is apparent, 27-2 is 27-2. That's the Pats taking care of business week in, week out at an historically efficient level at home.

i dont need a "sample size", there no doubt that pats are a very good team at home, no question..however competition level does matter and get real parity doesnt exist when it comes to pats, they always good and their hom eschedule is filed with the likes of buf/mia/jets every year with a couple other trash teams and maybe one or 2 quality teams, as i said it is still very impressive but it pretty damn obvious when you look back last few years (i didnt bother going back past last 2 they played like 3 decent teams at home and im sure were td or more favs in more than half of them,,not often do they get a team as good as hou coming to town (occasionally a balt or someone) but i bet the win % of the last 2 yrs home opponents is very low..you can in no way say that because pats have won 29 of last 31 that means they have a 93% chance of winning this gm,,that is beyond asinine...i cant believe you actually believe this,,,books are giving -200ish on a 90% winner? yea that makes totals sense, wow they really slipped up on this gm...lmfao...

now as i said i actually lean pats slightly but not real strongly and certainly not because they beat up their trash div and soft schedule every yr.... strange how before last year they lost 2 str8 playoff gms at home, maybe that cause the competition was a little tougher? and balty had them dead to rights in the afc cham gm in you guessed it foxboro, dropped td and missed fg or that been 3 years in a row with home playoff loss, little different gm when you not playing the bottom feeders of the league, parity, please..illusion of parity more like it, the same teams are almost always at the top with a few rogue exceptions every year..

o me as long as weather is decent (chance of some rain), but as long as it not a downpour and wind is under 10 mph my play will most likely be the 1st half over as both these teams love to jump on teams early, both can be had threw the air, and with pats being so much better against run id expect early shots down the field off play action to either johnson or daniels..dont think hou secondary has a answer for welker right now but pats are getting thin on weapons of late, gronk been out, now they lose edelman, and hernadez is gimpy,,dont think pats will have success rushing with ridley like they do against a lot of teams so i suspect be a heavy dose of woodhead so brady has another target and they run no huddle quite a bit...

[walktheline]

+15 units on the night, + 87.2 units on the weekend.