 SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks |
Best Sportsbooks List
|
|
| |||||
| #1 FanDuel | SBR rating 4.8/5 | Review | #6 BetRivers | SBR rating 4.1/5 | Review | #2 Caesars | SBR rating 4.7/5 | Review | #7 Fanatics | SBR rating 4.1/5 | Review |
| #3 DraftKings | SBR rating 4.7/5 | Review | #8 Betway | SBR rating 3.8/5 | Review | ||
| #4 BetMGM | SBR rating 4.6/5 | Review | #9 Borgata | SBR rating 3.5/5 | Review | ||
| #5 bet365 | SBR rating 4.6/5 | Review | #10 ClutchBet | SBR rating 2.9/5 | Review | ||
Bills -6, what am I missing?
Jags on the road? Even if MJD comes back, a ML seems to be a stone cold lock. A warm weather team coming up to Buffalo. Jacksonville played Houston well, but that was indoor.
Will someone explain this angle to me taking the Jags here? I guess this could end up 19-13 in a low scoring game, but I see no way the Bills lose this game.
The Bills and lock do not belong in the same sentence...Jax has been playing much better with the QB change...I do agree on the low scoring game, first glance at over/unders this week and at 45 I like the under
That's surprising to me jacksonville once they have Mjd will be a completely different team especially with chad henne stepping up the last two weeks, you add the run game and it opens up for the henne Blackmon connection
chad henne.
gabbert killed this team and they are much better without him. they almost beat the texans and knocked off the titans so far..6 pts is a ton for this shitty bills team.
So go bet big $$,for you thats Prob $50!Originally Posted by jinxpro13
Big mouth,Jags R gonna get frikkin kiwlled!! Bills R due ta frikkin kill a lousy,crappy team! nice timming.U stupid nerdgoof!!
Calls someone stupid and then says a team is "due" for something to occur...So go bet big $$,for you thats Prob $50!
Not sure if serious
chad henne has his moments. he can make all types of throws, but he succumbs to pressure. he doesn't make much plays with his feet so a proper pass rush should either bring him down or pressure him to make stupid throws. when this guy makes stupid throws, forget about it. it's almost always the worst kind of INT you'll see. his pocket presence is ok, if he's nervous, he'll lock onto a certain route he likes and linebackers just squat back waiting for the motherfukker to throw it, chad's nervous...he doesn't see them
when he's confident and his protection is ok...he'll move his feet around the pocket and deliver accurate throws. he has a good arm and can make all kinds of throws. his WRs dropped MANY passes and the coaching staff was a cluster fukk in miami.
when he's hot, Chad Henne is a solid QB. I've seen him live many times and he's servicable.. it just depends on what you have around him, obviously.
i like the JAC lean.
You're eager to play the Bills as a -6 favourite? I don't understand how you can think that's a good idea...
jax has been playing pretty good football as of late. the bills are horrible. i guess thats what your missing.
It's Jags + points or nothing for me
dude asked for an angle, i gave him one.So go bet big $$,for you thats Prob $50!
who the f are you dude? gay ass NHL avatar motherfu*er
Last edited by jinxpro13; 11-28-12 at 02:18 AM.
So go bet big $$,for you thats Prob $50!
wish these morons would go back to covers..you add nothing,,you are a scrub, you bet the fukkin eagles last week , real "sharp" ace, now go away....
|
This post was nominated 1
time
. To view the nominated thread please click here.
People who nominated: Frisco
|
I like the Bills here as well, but public is on JAX, so wait until later in the week. Also JAX 5-0 ATS this year on the road. Look for Bills-4.5 or 5
chan gailey "doesnt believe in" kicking field goals over 49 yards. i've never fuckin seen such a stupid philosophy in football in my life.
how the hell he isnt fired yet is beyond the life of me. theres a reason he got fired from college. dont know how the fuk he ended up in the nfl after that.
take bills ML if you want in a parlay. avoid any spreads on the bills by more than a field goal, EVER, until gailey is fired. fitzpatrick is too shaky to get touchdowns consistently, chan gailey is too stupid to run the ball, and the kick game is atrocious. it all amounts to scrappy close games.
even if this play hits, its just not worth the risk. bills are retarded.
On FGs of 50+ yards, there's a big difference in conversion rate for FGs of 50+yards and for under 49yards.
50+yards: 61.7%
<49yards: 88.1%
If you look at the value of field position, being on the 50 yard line is worth 2 points, your own goal line is worth -2 (safety), and your opponent's goal line is worth 6 (TD). At some point as you move further away from the opponents goal line, the chance of a FG becomes worth less to you because it's less likely to be converted, and you would be turning the ball over.
It's an EV calc just like EV = (Chance of winning a bet)(1) - (Chance of losing)(1.1) @ -110 juice.
Punt: The value of the field position to your opponent where the ball is downed on the field (Neg. if inside the 20)
Kick 49yd+ : The chance of making it * 3 points - the chance of missing * the value of the field position for your opponent at that spot.
Go for it on 4th: Chance of making it * field position value - chance of failing * opponent's field position value.
In short, the value of the longer field goal is worth less to you than either pinning your opponent at their end or in going for it on 4th and trying to extend the drive. So he's not actually that stupid...
um no. hes stupid.
they were down 7-3 against indy in a must win game and on the indy 34. a 51 yard attempt or punt the ball and gain what 20 yards field position.
they punted the ball to the indy 11 and indy proceeded to drive 80 yards kick a field goal and never looked back.
your stats mean jack all. theres a big difference between 50-55 yards and 55 yards plus.
any decent nfl kicker should be able to kick 50-55 yards with relative confidence. leaving three points on the field over and over does your team no good.
this philosophy is absolutely retarded. i dont buy what you said for half a second although i applaud your effort for trying to play devils advocate
YOU PLAY, TO WIN, THE GAME
try defending this one...
50 seconds left in the first half bills get the ball on their own 13. indy has two timeouts the bills 1.
pass incompletetion over the middle (no chance)
pass incompletion over hte middle (no chance)
run for a couple yards (timeout indy)
punt.
indy gets to the buffalo 1 and shouldve scored but instead gets a free 3. wouldve had a free 7.
what the hell was gailey trying from his own 14. everybody knows in this situation you try a draw or quick screen pass and keep the clock ticking on all three downs in case you dont covert.
this bonehead gives indy free points before the half in what wouldve been a 10-6 game. instead he turns it back into a touchdown game
try defending this one.
the best running back in the nfl gets only 14 carries, including 0 in the fourth quarter in a 1 td game.
i can go on all day man. this team is coached by a clown and thats why they are a circus. fire this dink, get rid of fitzpatrick, the worst fukin qb since rob johnson, and get a goddamn kicker that can kick more than 40 yards without having wobbly pie looking like pathetic field goals and get a punter that can punt more than 35 yards.
this is the nfl not the lingerie league. cant kick a long field goal, havnt thrown a deep pass all year, cant punt more than 30 yards. how the devil do you set up a team with this trash mentality
General case scenario. Depends on the time in the game, the confidence in the kicker, and the quality of their defense. I agree that he shouldn't have all that much faith in his defense as they're terrible.
But if he doesn't have faith in the kicker, it was a difference between handing the ball over at the 42 yard line (the spot of the kick) or the 11. The caveat to having a weak defense is that the more Buffalo settles for FGs, the farther they fall behind when their opponent can score TDs.
I didn't actually watch this game. I just put my money on Indy and let it play out.
Reply With Quote
