Happy Thankgiving !!!!!


There are three NFL games on Thanksgiving once again this season. Let’s take a look at what the sharps (professional wagerers) are betting in those games, plus the prime time college football matchup featuring TCU and Texas. Sharps were VERY active in terms of sides and totals right off the bat in the three NFL games.
HOUSTON AT DETROIT: Sharps were very fond of Houston and the Over on the opening numbers of -3 and 48. The Texans are now up to -3.5 and even -4 in spots. We’ve told you in the past that it takes a lot of money to move a game off a three. Sharps were very surprised that a Super Bowl favorite in the AFC was only laying a field goal against a slumping team with a losing record from the NFC. They also expect a shootout with a pair of quarterbacks who know how to move the ball. We would expect some buy back on the underdog at +4.5, and on the Under at 51 based on our discussions with a few different syndicates. But, that wouldn’t be an “over the top” buyback…because early bettors are very happy with their positions.
WASHINGTON AT DALLAS: A rare early move on a dog against a public favorite on a big public betting day. Normally, you can assume that squares (the general public) would back Dallas in a Thanksgiving game as a relatively small home favorite. This game opened at -4. Sharps hit underdog Washington right away and drove the line to +3. So many sharps wanted Washington that it was impossible to wait. Many groups have these teams rated dead even in their Power Ratings…which meant a number like four was an automatic bet signal. The total is up from 47 to 48.
NEW ENGLAND AT NY JETS: The underdog and Under were hit right away here, and it wasn’t weather related. Global warming has made November mostly pleasant in the cities where weather can be a factor. Sharps liked the Jets at +7 enough to bring the line below that key number to +6.5. The opening total of 50.5 has been bet down to 48.5. We hear that sharps expect the Jets to follow the same gameplan that almost led to a big upset in Foxboro. That means running the ball and running the clock. It’s telling again that sharps went against a public favorite (in this case, New England) right away rather than waiting for the public to bet. They didn’t want to take any chances, they wanted their money in at +7.
TCU AT TEXAS: This game also saw aggressive betting activity on the opener. Texas opened at -8, but was bet down to -7 as the home favorite. The total of 61 has come down three points to 58 because the Texas defense has been playing so well in recent weeks. Mixed messages there. The best way to interpret that is that Longhorn support showed up on the total because Under 61 or 60 offered more value in the minds of backers than Horns -8. TCU money showed up on the dog figuring an intense battle in any style of game. Remember that it takes less money to move a total, particularly a high opening total.
We expect sharp money to fade any public money that comes in on the holiday. So, if squares bet public favorites like Dallas, New England, and the Texas Longhorns, sharps will buy more of the underdogs if the lines go back up.