San Diego long travel with the early kick. TB gaining confidence by the week leading the league in rush defense. Their secondary worries me slightly but this play looks solid.
Thoughts?
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11-06-12 03:01 PM #1
Tampa Bay -3 vs San Diego...
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11-06-12 03:04 PM #2
Not sure travel is all that relevant with San Diego having played on Thursday. SD can't run the ball anyway. Spread is sharp.
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11-06-12 03:08 PM #3
It's sharp because public perception is SD is good and will make a run and 3 is enough to split the action...
Originally Posted by tatddy
But what were you expecting here?
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11-06-12 03:11 PM #4
Books are juicing the hell out of the -3. I doubt it goes to 3.5 at any point. I'd play the under here over the sides. Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1
SD is 4th in the NFL in rush yards against. There are going to be a lot of stalled drives in this game.Last edited by tatddy; 11-06-12 at 03:15 PM.
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11-06-12 03:12 PM #5
Doesn't San Diego have a November record of about 20-3 with Norv as coach?
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11-06-12 04:36 PM #6
Only thing is people in Tampa
hate sports and dont support the rays or bucs
basically a neutral field.
that being said Tampa is a better team and
they should win by 10 +
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11-06-12 05:14 PM #7
Originally Posted by tatddy
that is one way of looking at it,,i tend to think both teams run ds and weaknesses against the pass may promote more passing which could lead to more points...number does seem a little high tho, surprised it opened higher than tb/oak where it had shootout written all over it,,,need to look at sd red zone offense, id guess it isnt real good and tb pretty stout once teams get inside the 20....
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11-06-12 05:26 PM #8
Anything over 45 is too high IMO
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11-06-12 05:30 PM #9
Vincent Jackson will have a big day
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11-06-12 05:32 PM #10
def surprising to me they set it higher than the oak gm,,,that gm had shootout written all over it, very curious this opened 1.5 points higher than that gm...im just starting to cap this card so i dont have a number yet, hopefully by the end of the night i have a pretty good idea what my card will look like.. Originally Posted by tatddy
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11-06-12 05:32 PM #11
san diego is a good team. problem is the turnovers. rivers throws SO MANY interceptions. you can't turn the ball over in the nfl. and you cant do it EVERY GAME. but when rivers doesnt turn ball over hes good qb.
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11-06-12 06:10 PM #12
Rivers has a new toy, Danario Alexander, he's a legit NFL caliber big play guy. Freeman been playing well but let's see what happens when the run game stalls. If Freeman has to win them the game, they lose. SD or nothing for me.
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11-06-12 06:14 PM #13
odds alexander stays healthy even thru this gm are slim to none,,,dude been a walking injury going back to his years at mizzou.... Originally Posted by fergie's balls
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11-06-12 07:05 PM #14
This is a coin flip game. The Bucs are on the right track, but they are due for a clunker. Good luck!
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11-06-12 07:58 PM #15
chargers are the most unpredictable team in the NFL.
one day they are the best, one day they are the worst.
which Chargers team will show up? Chargers are an auto- no play for me.
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11-06-12 08:16 PM #16
yeah it's too bad, dude was a freak, though sounds like still has some of it in him...he'll have 2 to 4 games in him, get folks excited , before goes down again. he defintely gets significant targets in this game. Originally Posted by 2daBank
Bucs don't win 4 out of 5
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11-06-12 10:41 PM #17
prob a pass on a side for me, no way am i laying money on sd in a early east coast gm,,bucs pass d is bad but they somewhat opportunistic when teams get in the red zone and def stingy donw there, rivers makes a lot of mistakes in red zone so wouldnt shock me in the slightest if he moves down the field and fails to punch in their chances...sd front 7 very good but secondary can be had...i dunno, have to look into this some more.. Originally Posted by fergie's balls
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11-06-12 11:49 PM #18
SD+3 one of the best bets of the week
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11-07-12 12:13 AM #19
Have you been to a Bucs game this year??? Originally Posted by Big Bear
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11-07-12 12:18 AM #20
This game has me worried, personally i am leaning San Diego +3 because well San Diego has major talent and are capable of beating any team, Chargers have a great run defense and passing defense which i think if chargers get to an early lead, can destroy buc offense. More liekly though i feel like the squares like how bucs have been playing and will jump on it because they lost money on SD -3 against browns and they are kind of revenge betting....This feels like a pick'em so i'll take the points Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1
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11-07-12 12:27 AM #21
San Diego graded as solid value this week for me. The most glaring difference between two otherwise fairly similar teams is the QB ratings against stat. The San Diego defense and defensive scheme has not neutralized QB efficiency in the least. San Diego on the other hand has.
I marked that down as soon as I saw a common opponent in play this weekend.
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11-07-12 01:20 AM #22
I didn't lose money on that Chargers +3 (not because I bet the Browns but because I didn't bet at all) AND I'm still one of those "squares" that feel the Bucs have been playing well. I'm sort of torn on this one overall. After seeing Peyton dismantle Rivers I never want to bet him again (I hated the Chargers to begin with gambling wise anyway). On the other hand I've never trusted Freeman. Originally Posted by Volfenhauser
After this huge fave weekend I'm certainly incline to lean SD +3. This will probably be a game I stay away from but for those planning to play it, make sure to do some legit capping because this line looks razor sharp to me.
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11-07-12 04:24 AM #23
San Diego is not in a good situation here. This is the dreaded non conference road game....that is sandwiched between two divisional opponents. (Chiefs last week and Broncos next week). This is a throwaway game that means absolutely nothing to the Chargers.
-facing a rejuvenated young team with the desire to win.
-Bucs have been the most explosive offense the last 4 weeks scoring an average of 36 points per game.
-Bucs lead the league in rush defense and have a swiss cheese secondary.
-Doug Martin is emerging and will force the San Diego D to crowd the box leaving Josh Freeman to heave it to Vincent Jackson WHO LEADS THE LEAGUE in yards per reception (22.9 yards per catch)
This game will play out exactly like you think it will. San Diego will abandon the run game early and Rivers will feast on the inexperienced Bucs corners. Josh Freeman will toss long passes to V Jax to keep up with the Chargers. Chargers lose focus/shut it down in the 4th quarter and Bucs cover.
BUCS-3
Over 47.5Points Awarded:
Louisvillekid1 gave Stelio Kontos 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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11-07-12 06:34 AM #24
Everybody , every square, every sharp, everthing inbetween, immediately jumps on auto fade SD in 1pm EST spot. So why are 'red hot' Bucs only -3 at home vs rubber arm Rivers and the worst coach in football? Line says it all.
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11-07-12 07:28 AM #25
Leaning SD +3. Think Rivers outplays Freeman.
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11-07-12 07:46 AM #26
Did you say the same thing last week with Lions -4? Or Bears -4? Or Broncos -4? Or Seahawks -4.5? etc. Originally Posted by fergie's balls
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11-07-12 08:18 AM #27
Frisco, valid point. just seems this number would have come out higher with all the anti SD ammo out there.
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11-07-12 11:39 AM #28
Freeman is not turning the ball over , he was playing great ball when he didnt have a run game like he has the past few weeks , vincent jackson is playing his old team and i think will have a huge game especially now that the chargers are worried about the running game
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11-08-12 06:31 AM #29
love paranoid losers like this. increasing bucs play thanks Originally Posted by fergie's balls
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11-08-12 06:53 AM #30
Line opens at 1.5 goes right to 3 the public is around 60% TBay
The books got crushed last week this is 1 of the 3 games I will like
on Sunday Im going SD even though that team has no heart.
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11-08-12 06:55 AM #31
Last week was a blood bath for the books I dont see it happening again this week Originally Posted by Frisco
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