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09-30-12 07:15 PM #36
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09-30-12 07:21 PM #37
how did you do today ernie mccraken?
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09-30-12 07:25 PM #38
despite what people want to try and claim sports betting has absolutely nothing, zero, nada, to do with any sort of financial market.
Originally Posted by Ernie Mccracken
While prices might fluctuate like one to some extent, the results are based on an independent event.
The sooner people figure out that sports betting isnt about the spread or who is betting what but is determined by what happens on the field the better off they will be.
I have been betting on sports since the mid 80s. I had systems and trends, and situational data from the get go. Any 'theory' these guys post or posted on the internet I had or disproved long before the copy and pasted it from whomever they plagiarized it from.
Now all that being said this 'system' is as simple as it gets, probably why it works. But it does work, and it picks winners. If not for getting 'greedy' (playing a +300 dog on the ML) the thing is 6-1 today. After going 4-0 last week. Plus it hasnt hit its wheelhouse yet, which is still another week away.
So right now it is 10-2, does that mean it is going to regress? Hard saying. I doubt it, but even if it does you take the bad with the good. 3-4 next week is still 13-6 overall. With a few ML dogs sprinkled in.
But I am not about records or W-L numbers, I go by what the bank roll does. I havent played all these plays, but I have played most of them. All I know is it is showing a profit, and I was basically doing it to show that you dont need to be fancy to beat the NFL or at least pick a few winners. I literally spend 7 or 8 minutes running the numbers. Then maybe a half hour total looking for the best lines and trying to get them matched somewhere where I play. So it isnt a lot of work thats for sure.
it will take you longer to read what I just wrote than I will have spent doing it.Nomination(s):This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: jjgold
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09-30-12 08:08 PM #39
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09-30-12 08:13 PM #40
good to see others win
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09-30-12 09:07 PM #41
Same story as every other tout. If you had a system that could pick winners, you'd be a millionaire many times over already. Same with thousands of other guys with similar systems. 10-2 is a mirage. If those results hold up over a real sample, you are a shoe in for the nobel prize.
If a simple system was all it took to beat the books, sports wagering wouldn't exist.Nomination(s):This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: CanuckG
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10-01-12 12:38 PM #42
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10-01-12 05:50 PM #43
anything for tonight?
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10-01-12 06:19 PM #44
i just start testing this one system out and it went 4-1 last week, and for this week so far it went 3-1
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10-02-12 02:20 AM #45
i loved the Panthers +7 play and made it with ya. keep them coming!!
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10-02-12 08:51 AM #46
22 Minutes to run the numbers, I didnt see a lot so took a little more time.
Its a system so it is hit or miss whether numbers fall right.
Only have a couple and a few leans.
Rams ML
Buff plus points and a lean on the ML, similar to Car and we know how that turned out.
Cle plus points and a lean on the ML, see above
Mia Plus points(lean)
Phi Plus points(lean)
Not many games but the numbers are falling into place and 5 games will add to the system for next week going forward. Also might have a play on Monday depending on how Chi/Jax and SD/NO turn out.
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10-02-12 11:08 AM #47
I like the rams, miami and philly. Brownies and buffalo game too many points for me to find courage and bet. Great system you got going on. I might be tailing you for awhile if this week ends up the same as the last 2. GL
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10-02-12 12:48 PM #48
I am not betting all the games. I havent bet any of the leans, and probably wont. They fit into a parameter of lines not a specific result. So they are basically in a group of numbers that has performed better than 65%. While the Bills and Cleveland have specific numbers that are around 80% ATS, and slightly better than 50% SU. Originally Posted by bryanoens
I like the rams, miami and philly. Brownies and buffalo game too many points for me to find courage and bet. Great system you got going on. I might be tailing you for awhile if this week ends up the same as the last 2. GL
Thats why I dont look at lines, just the odds. Car was a play that fit with how Cle and Buf fit this week, they obviously covered, and 95 times out of 100 maybe even more they win the game SU. But thats why its gambling and thats why a +300 dog is tough to cash. But when they come in its a big bank roll booster.
You also cant handicap it. Bills are obviously a better team than Cle so they 'should' have a better chance to win SU. I dont look at it that way either. With a 'system' you blindly follow whatever it spits out no matter how stupid it might sound. Thats why people dont like them because theyre stupid. But so is betting real money on a sport where any thing can and will happen and usually does.
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10-02-12 05:06 PM #49
Hey wantitall4moi, I am not sure what your wagers mean
could you clarify:
Buff plus points and a lean on the ML, similar to Car and we know how that turned out.
Plus points is the over? What is the lean on the Money Line?
Cle plus points and a lean on the ML, see above
Same Q as above
Mia Plus points(lean)
Again not sure what plus points is and lean?
Phi Plus points(lean)
Again not sure what plus points is and lean?
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10-02-12 05:54 PM #50
It fits the same number Carolina did. But Car lost on a miracle by atlanta to beat the ML, so the ML play is a gamble obviously. Anytime you have +9 dogs and play the ML youre taking a shot. Originally Posted by msetai
Hey wantitall4moi, I am not sure what your wagers mean could you clarify:
Buff plus points and a lean on the ML, similar to Car and we know how that turned out.
Plus points is the over? What is the lean on the Money Line?
Cle plus points and a lean on the ML, see above
Same Q as above
Mia Plus points(lean)
Again not sure what plus points is and lean?
Phi Plus points(lean)
Again not sure what plus points is and lean?
Basically a lean is it fits a number but isnt as precise. So the ML is possible but a gamble.
A lean on a game. Mia for example means that it fit a parameter of numbers not a specific number. Meaning it has a 65% or more chance when grouped into a subset, to cover the number.
Buffalo and Cleveland are specific numbers on their own, Miami and Phili are games that fit a sub set.
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10-02-12 06:02 PM #51
Smart, Smart, SmartThats why I dont look at lines, just the odds.
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10-02-12 08:34 PM #52
Good luck wanty. Your system isn't worried about buffalo going across country?
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10-03-12 03:07 AM #53
Picks: Cleveland and Buffalo (both of their opponents are looking ahead? In week 6 Giants @ SF?)
Your system provided additional insurance for these two picks.
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10-04-12 12:41 PM #54
Should get 120 easy enough on Rams ML, maybe even 125.
I am only going one way but looking back AZ -1 +100 and then coming back heavier on Rams ML might have been the play here :/. But that is the money maker in me talking, not the guy who is basically gambling and betting one side and looking to get the best odds.
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10-04-12 12:49 PM #55
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10-04-12 03:42 PM #56
Good luck, we're all counting on you..and by all I mean the tailers
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10-04-12 11:14 PM #57
Another wire to wire winner, +120 for most folks I would imagine. Brings the tally up to around 10.5 units or so in a dozen or so plays.
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10-04-12 11:17 PM #58
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10-07-12 10:46 AM #59
+350 in Cle is worth it, might even get more as it shows no signs of slowing down.
Buff +400 is a total flyer, obviously you would like to get one of them to win SU.
Obviously it is a gamble, with points though Cle lost something as they were +10 early. Buffalo about the best they have been all week right now.
Miami is dogshit now at +3, and Phi unchanged +3.5.
Miami/Cinci game has had massive moves both ways, I suspect it was a lot of buy back when it moved mid week, but now it looks like joe public is all over miami since it has again moved to -3 with low vig.
But both were leans anyway. But the way they have moved the so called 'market' guys would call Miami a lock at this point.
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10-07-12 11:13 AM #60
Since the line for cle has moved, i feel the safer bet is the under at 44. Depending how morning goes, I will follow you will buffalo. Here is my card
bmore/kc over 47
parlay skins over + giants under
parlay steelers - 3 miami +3
depending on how morning goes, will lean on this
parlay saints over + buffalo +10
BOL!
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10-07-12 05:33 PM #61
Rough day Originally Posted by bryanoens
Since the line for cle has moved, i feel the safer bet is the under at 44. Depending how morning goes, I will follow you will buffalo. Here is my card
bmore/kc over 47
parlay skins over + giants under
parlay steelers - 3 miami +3
depending on how morning goes, will lean on this
parlay saints over + buffalo +10
BOL!
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10-07-12 06:09 PM #62
Run your system for 3 years and if you win then you MIGHT have something, one year is not enough and two years is not enough either. The only way to win long term is beating the closing line. When I used to get info from the computer group basically they would come up with a true value of what they thought the line would be and we would go place bets on lines that were "off" compared to our numbers. There was also alot of luck involved becuase we were hitting a very high % of bets but it worked for 2 years and we were killing it. Now the books have gotten sharper CRIS has a whole team coming up with the lines but there are still guys out there that our doing what we used to do. That being said let statistics/probablity run its course because everyone can get lucky short term.
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10-07-12 06:14 PM #63
Wanty has ran his system since the 80s. He has the biggest and best databases around that were built by two college friends. He has already made millions off of gambling but only bets for fun now. Originally Posted by Okiejoe
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10-07-12 06:26 PM #64
i thought the browns were the play too, especially with next week against san fran i thought the giants were looking ahead, i got my hopes up when the browns were up 14-0 but was quickly disappointed
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10-07-12 08:05 PM #65
LMAO 2-2 on the day and people coming out of the wood work, the guys all commenting couldnt be found with a search warrant the past 3 weeks. Still profitable for the week as it has the Rams. at +120.
But 13-4 still isnt good enough I guess.
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10-07-12 08:08 PM #66
- Originally Posted by wantitall4moi
fuckin buries Okiejoe
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10-08-12 01:42 AM #67
Your kiding right? He could go 50-1 and I could care less. There are no systems that work, short term yea, long term no. Its all about line value. I could teach a 10 year old kid with decent math and computer skills to be a square-sharp gambler. All I would have to do is sit him in front of the computer with Don Best or Sports Options and a shop like jazz,bi up and tell him to pick lines that are off. And tell him take a higher price and lay a lower. Originally Posted by darkhat
- fuckin buries Okiejoe
Darkhat, do you know how the lines are made up? Probable not. You probable like to raise your skirt up and bend over and take it in the ass from all the vig your taking. Let me teach you a little lesson because I'll forget more about gambling then you will ever know.They are composed of power ranking, field adv, injuries,etc. These are all calculated into the value of the line plus the have a little juice built in to it. A sharp gambler knows that 1 point move is worth about 16 cents depending on what number its going or coming off on. That just pushed his odds to up just enough to put the advantage in his favor and makes it a play.
What sharp syndicate groups do is come up with a value for a set of variable and they come up with there own line that is stronger then the line cris (originator of the lines) comes out with. Basically a derative. They then play what they see is off on the board. Theres an old buddy of mine about 70 years old and all he does is pick apart bad lines, knows very little about the actual math behind it all and is a very sucessful at it. Grant it he might play 1 game a week bc he is only playing if your way off. Even with all of that you can and will lose short term but long term you will make money.
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10-08-12 09:24 AM #68
LMAO another math guy. or thinks/pretends hes a math guy who doesnt have a frigging clue. Originally Posted by Okiejoe
Points/lines dont have any value, end of story. Other than what a book will charge for them. Only people that think that are guys who have been brainwashed into thinking they do.
I have been following sports and gambling for over 25 years I have tracked the numbers, moves, and all that bullshit and it doesnt mean a damn thing. The only times the points matter is when they actually matter, which isnt very often. There have been 147 individual games in the last 4500 or so where the line actually mattered. Do the math math guy and tell me what percentage that is.
These so called syndicates you mention that go in line with the 'billy walters' and other so called professional wise guy gamblers all have self fulfilling means to an end. Akin to how Ed at RAS does it in some sports now. They pick a couple games, then either release them or bet them and they have enough FOLLOWERS that put enough money into them to move them. So when the lines move (due only to the mass amount of money that was bet on them BECAUSE of THEIR say so) they claim 'see the line was off but we 'beat' it". Sometimes they win sometimes hey dont. But they always want to cite the amount of times and the degree by which they beat the closing number.
I call it the idiot factor. You have enough idiots following you that believe the shit you are selling and you can make any line move. Thats how Billy Walters (25 years ago) actually did make a little money gambling. He would leak out stuff he thought was off and let the fools move the lines then he would bet the other side and get all sorts of middles and crazy buy backs. Mostly in NCAA stuff but it was more than enough to make money with the kind of money he was moving back then. But he wasnt the only one doing it, he was just the only one dumb enough to talk about it.
I am not going to derail my own thread trying to educate you dumb asses who think they know what theyre doing based on the new age line of thinking.
I said from the start this was something I did that was just a system, totally numbers and nothing else. no factoring in anything but the stuff I use. It does work and it will show a profit. I dont give a shit what kind of definitions you want to put on it. the NFL by definition is 'short term' because there simply arent enough games in a season to make it anything else. There are 256 games(not counting play offs). If a guy can find 50 bets in that number of games and win 27 to 30 of them he is doing very well. Especially if half of them are for + odds.
That is the problem with NFL (sports) gamblers and so called 'sharp' guys. They look at 28-22 and think it is a failure or nothing special, but then out of the other side of their mouth they say hitting 55% 'long term' is impossible. But no one ever defines 'long term'. Nor do they care to because all these guys want to do is bad mouth and put down anyone that isnt a complete coin flipper. Vast majority of guys want others to lose because theyre losers themselves and thus they cant think anyone else can actually win doing it, plus they have to put others down to make themselves feel better or smarter.
This thing was up over 10 units the first 3 weeks, obviously it isnt going to keep that pace, nor should anyone expect it to. It did show a profit this week despite seemingly having a 'rough' day yesterday. But +120, +91, +91, -100, -100 is still a profit. And actually the odds on Phi and Mia were actually pretty close to even so a guy trying to 'spin' could say +120, +100, +100, -100, -100. No matter how you want to slice it it was profitable if you played the 5 games.
So even when you fools try to come in and bad mouth something all you do is show how ignorant you are. Even if it went 0-5 it would still have been up 5 units, which if I am not mistaken is still a profit. Like I said you take the good with the bad. In the end it is only about the money you have when you cash out. The money you make along the way isnt even all that important except it means youre not betting with your own money anymore.
Like I said I am done with this, if at the end of the season it is down mega units and you want to be critical feel free. But I imagine anytime the thing doesnt have astronomical returns you or one of your ilk will be in with your expected stupidity.
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10-08-12 09:30 AM #69
yes it started rough but hit bears+pats parlay and saints over. Didn't have faith in buffalo after my mourning. Texans -9 and under tonight! Originally Posted by dogs1972
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10-08-12 10:51 AM #70
I think it boils down to who wants to win? The colts wanted it bad. G.B not as much.
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