[Casey71]

Opening Jax as 5 point favorites. Now has moved full point and half towards Indy. Does this mean sharps are on the Colts for this game?

or..is the line a trap. public hammering colts to bring the number down. But sharps really liked jax all along.

this game is a crucial betting game for me. Just trying to interpret the line here...perhaps to get an edge.

any input would be great.

[alexn]

Opening Jax as 5 point favorites. Now has moved full point and half towards Indy. Does this mean sharps are on the Colts for this game?

or..is the line a trap. public hammering colts to bring the number down. But sharps really liked jax all along.

this game is a crucial betting game for me. Just trying to interpret the line here...perhaps to get an edge.

any input would be great.

I don't think the public is pounding the colts right now. The colts won the only 2 games they could afford to win while still getting Andrew Luck and they did so fittingly at Lucas Oil.

I think the sharps may be pounding Indy which scares me because I really like Jax in this spot. I think the under should be a solid play with MJD controlling 40% of the Jags offense.

[billysink]

I took it from the thread you started last week, that you are fairly new to this.

No time like the present to forget all bout this sharp, square, trap, public line of thinking.

Handicap the game to the very best of your ability, cover all the bases and make a decision if value exists. If you perceive value, make a play. If not, move on to the next game. Bypass any of that to worry about what anyone else is doing and you will lose your shirt.

All that crap is for folks who either have not done their work or don't trust their work.

There are no shortcuts to this.

[billysink]

Pertaining to the game.

Jacksonville is now placing guys they signed off the street to play in the secondary on IR. Quite simply put they are working with less than NFL caliber personnel back their at this point.

If you think Orlovsky handled himself well against a much better Houston defense, you would have to think he will put some points on the board here.

I think the real value in this game is in the total.

[Masu485]

I took Indy +4, their new QB is decent, Reggie Wayne will want to have a great game also. Their record would be tons better if they didn't use Painter so much this year.

[Casey71]

I am new to this site. And have started betting only this year. Part of my research has been coming here and reading...educating myself. I only joined last week.

Last week I posted why the line was moving towards Buffalo...when Denver clearly had the consensus pick. And look what Buffalo did. Somebody knew something that I didn't? It is this kind of edge I'm looking for when making my last picks for this week. I was just curious about the Indy game. Is there a story to be told here? The opening line moved quite quickly towards Indy. Maybe I'm reading too much into things though...that could also be a problem.

[billysink]

Let's talk about that game then Casey. What do you see so far????

[Casey71]

I see a resurgent Colts team. But haven't taken this new found energy on the road. Playing poorly would ensure Andrew Luck. But would Colts players work extra hard to say eff you to managment? Reggie Wayne has been playing better. Orlovsky playing way better than painter. Jax, on the other hand, has a better defense. But the secondary is a mess. MJD is all world. Blaine Gabbert is all turd. Who has the motivation here? Last home game for Jax? Want to end on a positive note for the new owner? Do the Colts wanna stick to the man...and the Jags. Last game for Caldwell the coach? Intially i liked the jags in this spot. The more I talk about it...maybe this could be a FG game. Therefore Colts would beat the 3.5 spread. Am I way off here?

[hey buddy]

Pertaining to the game.

Jacksonville is now placing guys they signed off the street to play in the secondary on IR. Quite simply put they are working with less than NFL caliber personnel back their at this point.

If you think Orlovsky handled himself well against a much better Houston defense, you would have to think he will put some points on the board here.

I think the real value in this game is in the total.

I assume you mean there is value on the over?

[billysink]

I see a resurgent Colts team. But haven't taken this new found energy on the road. Playing poorly would ensure Andrew Luck. But would Colts players work extra hard to say eff you to managment? Reggie Wayne has been playing better. Orlovsky playing way better than painter. Jax, on the other hand, has a better defense. But the secondary is a mess. MJD is all world. Blaine Gabbert is all turd. Who has the motivation here? Last home game for Jax? Want to end on a positive note for the new owner? Do the Colts wanna stick to the man...and the Jags. Last game for Caldwell the coach? Intially i liked the jags in this spot. The more I talk about it...maybe this could be a FG game. Therefore Colts would beat the 3.5 spread. Am I way off here?

Not on some of the stuff that matters.

Skip that speculation stuff about Luck and the eff you to management that is all boushi and should not be part of your fact finding. If you think that kind of stuff means something to this tilt then find another game to cap.

Both of these teams have taken a polarized change of direction of late, Jax due mostly to injuries and Indy due to a few subtle in house changes, the switch to Orlovsky and the commitment to the run game.

The strength of the Jax team is as you noted. MJD. Can Indy counter??

The strength of the Colts of late has been Orlovsky and the better effort of the defense. Can Gabbert beat the Indy D and can the Jax stop Orlovsky??

[billysink]

I assume you mean there is value on the over?

Jax is 3-0-1 to the over in the last 4.

I think so given the state of the secondary for Jax.

[Casey71]

I'd say Orlovsky is better than Gabbert. MJD better than...Donald Brown? Wayne better than...no name for Jax? and Divisional games tend to be closer, no?

An even matchup..should therefore...favor Colts on the 3.5 spread. I just don't know why the opening spread was 5 in favor of Jax.

[billysink]

I'd say Orlovsky is better than Gabbert. MJD better than...Donald Brown? Wayne better than...no name for Jax? and Divisional games tend to be closer, no?

An even matchup..should therefore...favor Colts on the 3.5 spread. I just don't know why the opening spread was 5 in favor of Jax.

An opening number of 5 is as insignificant an open as there is.

[Casey71]

how significant is the jets/dolphins line? now there's one that is giving me fits lol opened at 2 for miami. up to 2.5 in some books. down to 1.5 in others...yeesh.

i suppose the question becomes..when does a line become signifcant or insignificant (as you say)

[billysink]

how significant is the jets/dolphins line? now there's one that is giving me fits lol opened at 2 for miami. up to 2.5 in some books. down to 1.5 in others...yeesh.

i suppose the question becomes..when does a line become signifcant or insignificant (as you say)

As soon as you perceive value in it.

It ain't tea leaves brother.

I am trying to get you to focus on the game, not the line. Don't cap to the number. Cap backwards from it.


A line move from 1.5 to 2.5 is not worth the time it took me to type this sentence. Every book has a different agenda/clientele/market and will adjust accordingly.

[Casey71]

makes sense.

Okay...fair is fair billy. who are you taking? lol Indy or Jax. Miami or NYJ. If you prefer not say...i would understand, naturally.

[billysink]

As I said earlier I find the value in the Jax game in the total.

I am already on record in some thread here as being on the Jets.

I will gladly answer any of your questions Casey, I am certainly not the end all of handicapping but I have been around it for 25 years and have had some degree of success.

I started somewhere too.

[Casey71]

thanks for your offer Billy. I do have a big weekend ahead of me. Questions I might just have.

Such as: Is there more value in a "better" team versus a team who "needs" a win at home. Case in point - Balt/Cinci. I suppose both teams need a win. My sentiment goes out to the Bengals. But my brain goes out to the Ravens...who are getting 1.5 or something like that. Ravens have crapped the bed on the road. But motivation is huge to get a bye (methinks). Bengals also have huge motivation to get into the playoffs with a win..or at least to cover 1.5 for me. How much does motivation...ATS records...home field advantage...factor into value. Or are most plays purely a case...of who has the better players.

[Vitooch]

This is a NO PLAY for me. Jags -3 was a easy play last time around but Colts have seemed to have woken up.

[billysink]

thanks for your offer Billy. I do have a big weekend ahead of me. Questions I might just have.

Such as: Is there more value in a "better" team versus a team who "needs" a win at home. Case in point - Balt/Cinci. I suppose both teams need a win. My sentiment goes out to the Bengals. But my brain goes out to the Ravens...who are getting 1.5 or something like that. Ravens have crapped the bed on the road. But motivation is huge to get a bye (methinks). Bengals also have huge motivation to get into the playoffs with a win..or at least to cover 1.5 for me. How much does motivation...ATS records...home field advantage...factor into value. Or are most plays purely a case...of who has the better players.

My approach is to break down the game into matchups, who wins the line of scrimmage, who has played the tougher schedule, injuries always play a big part. Home and road is a static 3 points for most venues, I do give consideration to others.

I don't read a whole lot into motivation unless it is polarized.

As far as the Bengal game goes, I don't think you can be anymore motivated than win and you are in. The Ravens have much to play for as well.

I will not be on the Ravens. I have seen them showing some cracks in the armor against the run the trouble me. They are also pretty dinged up and to me some of their older players have shown a noticeable drop off late in the year.

I am considering the Bengals. They are very good against the run and it will be up to Flacco to beat them. Some of his targets are beat up right now and the whole Ravens team has has a real problem with dropped passes of late.

I am not done with this one yet.

[p19101]

Opening Jax as 5 point favorites. Now has moved full point and half towards Indy. Does this mean sharps are on the Colts for this game?

or..is the line a trap. public hammering colts to bring the number down. But sharps really liked jax all along.

this game is a crucial betting game for me. Just trying to interpret the line here...perhaps to get an edge.

any input would be great.

You're taking the wrong approach. Why decide to make a game a "crucial betting game" when you obviously haven't identified any value.

[4TH AND STUPID]

rule #1 of NFL handcapping:

NEVER put your hard earned money on a SHIT team, unless there is serious ML value due to the opponent being overrated or having faced an easy schedule and not having been exposed. indy and jacksonville both suck dearly and to place a bet with confidence on any of these terrible teams, with no ML value is, in my opinion, degenerate.

examples of times when you can bet on a "bad" team are when they are facing baltimore, san fran, giants, cowboys, falcons, etc because often you will get a +350 or higher ML and spreads of 11 or more, despite the fact that these teams are proven chokers ATS against bad teams.


but when poor teams face eachother you are banking on A) a poor team to show up and B) another poor team to not beat a poor team

all in all, its either bet on the total or stay away. that being said, id be shocked if orlovsky isnt told to relax his hormones for a day by team management. if orlovsky wants a job next year i suggest he make sure the colts dont cause any major problems for jacksonville.

[Mr Handicapable]

I live in Indy and the latest silly rumor is that Tenn, Houston, and Jax are all laying down so they don't have to face Luck for atleast 10 years. Indy is the better team with Jax's starting secondary all out of commission. Indy is missing 6 defensive starters too but Gabbert and the NFLs worst receiving corp can't take advantage. We are really pi$$ed off in Indy that Polian can laydown instead of trying to have a perfect season but he is too stupid & stubborn to lay down for the #1 pick. Indy might even get Dallas Clark back....I expect the most IDIOTIC & SHORTSIGHTED 3 game winning streak in NFL history on Sunday. Hope I'm wrong & would never bet a game like this.

[Mr Handicapable]

Unfortunately I had to watch Jax@Indy earlier this year as I won big on Under. Indy wins that game easily with a decent QB. They went 3-n-out so often that the D got tired in the 2nd half. It was hilarious to watch Painter throw it 15 yards over the guys head and then Gabbert would throw a 3 hopper to his guys. Orlovsky will probably light these guys up.....talking myself into a little Indy ML now?

[budman77j]

find a better game to play