[Premature Capper]

Happy Thanksgiving!!

Ok guys, I feel like there is going to be a lot of chaos today with the short week and the holiday games, so there is a couple of good value bets out there. Let me start off by saying that if these games were on Sunday, I probably wouldn't bet on them just because there are some really good matchups that could go either way, and I've been doing so well, bc I've been betting the "Under the radar" games. Those are much easier and more consistent, but it IS Turkey day and I can't resist watching football and gambling! Haha I hit all of my bets last sunday (5/5), and I was 20-1 before then, so let's see if I can keep my streak going!

Out of all three games today, the Cowboys have the best chance to RAVAGE their opponent. Dallas is going to be so hyped for this game at home on Thanksgiving, and I think they are going to roll the Dolphins, so 7 points shouldn't be a problem. Remember, this 3 game win streek by Miami has come against the Chiefs, the Redskins, and the Bills (all 3 of the worst teams in the NFL in my opinion). If it were at Miami, then possibly they'd have a chance, but at Dallas = NO SHOT.

I also am on the Detroit/Green Bay Over at 56. This packers offense on turf could be very very dangerous, and the Lions have a very dangerous offense in their own right. Both defenses have talent, but they've each allowed a ton of points. GB is allowing 24.5 ppg over their last 4, and those games were against the Vikings, Chargers, Vikings, and Bucs (all terrible teams). Det is allowing 43 ppg over their last 2 games, so I dont' think they'll be able to stop Rodgers by any means. I have Calvin Johnson on my fantasy team, and I just picked up Nate Burlesson and Kevin Smith off waivers, so I've got 3 fantasy players going in this one alone, so I definitely need some points! Haha

My last straight pick is a value bet. I like the Lions ML here. The Packers are shaky on the road, only beating teams by 8.2 ppg, and they've played some pretty bad teams on the road to boot. I don't think they are going to go undefeated this year, so what better game for them to get their first loss than at Detroit on a short week on Thanksgiving Day!?

My 3 picks that I've locked in for today:

Dallas -7
GB/Det Over 56
Det ML +220 (Value bet)

I'm also going to do a 3 game teaser. This Baltimore/San Fran game should be a defensive battle, considering both teams are conservative on offense and have great run and pass coverage. I think it's going to be a FG battle, so it will be close and low scoring. I also think Dallas and Miami will both score points, so that over teaserd sounds good also. My teaser is:

BAL/SF Under 47
SF +10
Dallas/Miami Over 38

Another good Value Bet would be the Forty Niners ML +155. I'll probably throw a little $ on there as well!

GL ALL!! Happy Thanksgiving!!

[D-raww]

I like your picks

BOL to you and happy thanksgiving

Cowboys giving alot of points though. I see cowboys only winning by 6 points.

27-21 cowboys win and over 44.5

[brewcrew2k]

I don't understand a value pick, the value is taking the points. Lots of stuff has to happen for you to win, whereas of you take the points your chances if winning increase...

[Premature Capper]

I don't understand a value pick, the value is taking the points. Lots of stuff has to happen for you to win, whereas of you take the points your chances if winning increase...

Very true, but a $100 bet on the Lions ML pays $230. A $100 on the +7 spread only pays $90. Hence the value! Same thing with the Eagles ML last Sunday. I bet the ML bc it payed +250 instead of taking the 7 points, and it paid off. I think the lions to beat the spread is also a good pick, but if it's going to be within 7 points anyway, that means Detroit has a good chance of winning the game outright! That's just my theory

[brewcrew2k]

Well Bol today, I think the lions show up today, just hope they don't win